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Climate Change and Fossil Fuels

Climate Change and Fossil Fuels. Will running out of oil help mitigate global warming?. Dr. Robert Brecha Physics Dept., Univ. of Dayton Dayton, OH USA 45469-2314 brecha@udayton.edu. WSU March 1, 2007. Outline. Climate change signals Climate models and projections

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Climate Change and Fossil Fuels

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  1. Climate Change and Fossil Fuels Will running out of oil help mitigate global warming? Dr. Robert Brecha Physics Dept., Univ. of Dayton Dayton, OH USA 45469-2314 brecha@udayton.edu WSU March 1, 2007

  2. Outline • Climate change signals • Climate models and projections • Peak oil (and natural gas and coal) • Will fossil fuel limits have an effect? • Conclusion

  3. The Past

  4. Mean global temperature - distribution

  5. Energy Balance “Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications” James Hansen, et al. Science 3 June 2005 308: 1431-1435 – Current imbalance of 0.85±0.15 W/m2

  6. CO2 Record

  7. CO2 and CH4 concentration

  8. The Future

  9. Model scenario indicators

  10. Climate “Forcings”

  11. Model projections

  12. Temperature change - natural or anthropogenic?

  13. Energy and fossil fuels

  14. Total ~400 Quadrillion Btu Coal Geothermal, wind, solar, etc. Gas Biomass RE (13.4%) Nuclear Hydro Oil (34.9%) World energy use World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day

  15. US production peak Approximately 30 out of 40 largest producers have crossed a peak

  16. BP reserves Peak models – world production USGS (BP + 50%)

  17. Discovery vs. consumption

  18. Discovery and production

  19. World Reserves and R/P

  20. Production and R/P Ratio

  21. Most Recent EIA Predictions (June 2006) In the IEO2006 reference case, … (p)roduction from Norway … is expected to peak at about 3.6 MMbd in 2006 and then decline gradually to about 2.5 MMbd in 2030 ... The UK sector is expected to produce about 2.2 MMbd in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 MMbd in 2030.

  22. Natural Gas National Petroleum Council (1998) US Prod. Import from Canada 1998 550 Bcm 90 Bcm 2010 725 Bcm 120 Bcm 2015 780 Bcm • Now the numbers are more like … • 1998 550 Bcm • 550 Bcm • 540 Bcm • 526 Bcm And Canada peaked in 2002 at 188 Bcm and expects a decline of 2.5% per year

  23. Natural Gas in the US (per day) EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data

  24. U.S. Coal Production

  25. U.S. Coal Production Lower quality coal Energy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005 http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/coal.html

  26. R/P for Coal • 1993 – According to BP, reserves will last 250 years • 2005 – According to BP, reserves will last 155 years • 3% future growth (less than currently), reserves will last 65 years U.S. figures: 1939, 3800 years remaining; 1953, 1900 years; 1993, 300 years; 2005, 240 years left

  27. Energy output Energy input Wind Hydro Tar sands EROEI “Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States” C. Cleveland Energy30 (2005) 769–782

  28. Tar Sands • Alberta, Canada • Effectively a mining operation • Current production of 106 b/d of synthetic crude oil • Estimate ~3×106b/d in 10 yrs., 5×106 b/d in 25 yrs. • Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus hazardous waste disposal • EROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 3:1

  29. Oil Shale • Western U.S. • Possibly 800 billion barrels !! • A mined product • Techniques proven in principle, but not large scale • Only profitable with oil >$75/bbl • High growth, optimum scenario – 106 b/d in 2025 • EROEI is (optimistically?) estimated at ~2:1 – 4:1 Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab.

  30. Ethanol from Corn Yield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha (@9000 kgcorn/ha) Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×1010 GJ/a Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×108 ha of land Currently we have in the US 1.2×108 ha of cropland total But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol from industrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1.3. GHG emissions are only slightly less than for conventional gasoline – and can be worse if coal-generated electricity is used. D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, 65-76 (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813 Farrell et al., Science 311, 506-508 (2006)

  31. Fossil fuels and CO2

  32. SRES - Oil

  33. SRES - Oil

  34. SRES - NG

  35. Oil and CO2

  36. Natural Gas and CO2

  37. Coal and CO2

  38. Total CO2 – Middle Scenarios

  39. Total anthropogenic carbon emissions

  40. a b

  41. Peak fossil fuel scenario

  42. Global Sea Level Changes Rahmstorf, Science (2007)

  43. Stop burning fossil fuels? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE

  44. Keep burning at same rate? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE

  45. Will climate change mitigation be costly? • Some coupled economic-climate models show the costs to be minimal • Stern report – not acting now will be extremely costly • U.S. businesses that have taken action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have found positive bottom-line results

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