1 / 20

Cases: an active period!

AMMA DRY-RUN 22 August – 2 September 2005 Comments from J-Ph Lafore (CNRM) and an example validation for 26/08/2005. Cases: an active period!. Weak convective days 24, 27, 30 August Long-lived MCS events 27-30 August; 30 August – 3 Sept; 2 Sept. – 5 Sept Convection to N of Mali in 3 cases.

lyris
Download Presentation

Cases: an active period!

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. AMMA DRY-RUN22 August – 2 September 2005Comments from J-Ph Lafore (CNRM) and an example validation for 26/08/2005

  2. Cases: an active period! • Weak convective days • 24, 27, 30 August • Long-lived MCS events • 27-30 August; • 30 August – 3 Sept; • 2 Sept. – 5 Sept • Convection to N of Mali in 3 cases

  3. General impressions • Models struggle with convection even at 24 hours (no surprise) • Generally harder to predict suppressed convection • LAM not necessarily better at convective prediction than Global (but better structure) • Active hurricanes downstream!!

  4. OBSERVATIONS

  5. NOAA-CPC Precipitation estimate valid 20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC

  6. Precipitation SYNOP reports valid for 20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC

  7. 24 hour cumulated FORECAST

  8. (a) (b) (c) (d) 24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826 00UTC-24UTC) for: (a) ARPEGE, (b) ARPEGE Tropiques, ( c ) ECMWF, (d) UK globalModel.

  9. 24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC) for ECMWF model (Initialization: 20050821-12UTC).

  10. 24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC) for MESONH model.(Initialization: ECMWF 20050823-00UTC).

  11. 24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC) for NOAA/NCEP model (Initialization: NCEP/GDAS 20050826-00UTC).

  12. 24 hour accumulated rainfall (20050826-06UTC to 20050827-06UTC ETA model (forced by NCEP analysis) IPSL/LMDz GCM model at ~70km (forced by NCEP analysis)

  13. 6 hour cumulated FORECAST

  14. 00-06 06-12 12-18 18-24 6-hour cumulated precipitation INITIAL CONDITIONS: ALADIN NORAF 20050826 – 00UTC

  15. 00-06 06-12 12-18 18-24 INITIAL CONDITIONS: UK Global 20050825 – 18UTC

  16. 00-06 06-12 12-18 18-24 ECMWF Global model: 20050826

  17. 00-06 06-12 12-18 18-24 IPSL/LMDz GCM: 20050826

  18. IPSL/LMDz GCM: 20050826 at 12UTC

  19. 20050823 06UTC-12UTC 20050823 12UTC-18UTC 20050823 18UTC-24UTC INITIAL CONDITIONS: ECMWF 20050823 – 00UTC

More Related