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Reserve Bank of India India - Macroeconomic Situation Assessment and Prospects

Reserve Bank of India India - Macroeconomic Situation Assessment and Prospects. Indian Merchants’ Chamber Mumbai June 19, 2012 Dr. Duvvuri Subbarao Governor Reserve Bank of India. 1. India Macroeconomic Situation. Cause for Concern?. 2. 2.

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Reserve Bank of India India - Macroeconomic Situation Assessment and Prospects

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  1. Reserve Bank of IndiaIndia - Macroeconomic SituationAssessment and Prospects Indian Merchants’ Chamber Mumbai June 19, 2012 Dr. Duvvuri Subbarao Governor Reserve Bank of India 1

  2. India Macroeconomic Situation Cause for Concern? 2 2

  3. India - Macroeconomic SituationTrends in Growth Rate 3 3

  4. India Growth Story What drove India’s growth in the pre-crisis period and what explains the current moderation? 4

  5. What is the inflation story? 5

  6. Moderation in WPI not transmitted to CPI 6 6

  7. What is driving Inflation? • Food (structural) • Fiscal deficit • Demand pressures • Commodity prices + depreciation 7

  8. What has RBI done to control inflation? 8 8

  9. Has RBI succeeded in controlling inflation? 9

  10. Has RBI’s tight monetary policy hurt growth? 10

  11. Is it the high interest rate that is inhibiting investment?

  12. If inflation is caused by supply side pressures, is tight monetary policy an appropriate response? 12

  13. What is required to revive growth? 13

  14. How much has the rupee depreciated and why? Nominal Exchange Rate 14

  15. What is causing rupee depreciation? 15 15

  16. Is the rupee depreciation entirely due to global factors? .

  17. What has RBI done to contain the movement in the exchange rate? 17 17

  18. What is RBI’s policy on exchange rate? 18 18

  19. What drives the exchange rate? 19 19

  20. Why 2012 is not 1991? 20 20

  21. Is there a new normal for inflation? 21 21

  22. Has India’s potential growth rate declined? 22 22

  23. What are the risks to the growth-inflation outlook? 23 23

  24. Is the “India Growth Story” still credible? 24 24

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