1 / 11

Characterizing and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

Characterizing and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty. Douglas Hilderbrand Uncertainty Forecasting Program Manager June 18 2008. Background “No forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty” ---NRC Report.

madra
Download Presentation

Characterizing and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Characterizing and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Douglas Hilderbrand Uncertainty Forecasting Program Manager June 18 2008

  2. Background“No forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty” ---NRC Report • In response to the National Research Council’s “Completing the Forecast” Report, NOAA is taking a leadership role within the Weather Enterprise for providing products that effectively communicate forecast uncertainty information • AMS Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty Forecasting (ACUF) • NOAA Forecast Uncertainty Steering Team (NFUSE) • National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)

  3. ACUF • Vision: Enterprise-wide partnership that generates and communicates forecast uncertainty information meeting Nation’s needs for informed decisions: • protecting life and property • supporting national defense and homeland security • enhancing the economy • meeting specific needs of partners, users, and customers • Mission: Develop Enterprise-wide goals and roadmap for providing forecast uncertainty information, building off NRC recommendations • Deliverable: An Enterprise implementation (action) plan for forecast uncertainty that has been reviewed and coordinated with partners

  4. ACUF Five Working Groups • Needs, opportunities, and benefits of providing hydrometeorological forecast uncertainty products and services to the Nation • Why is uncertainty information important? • Enterprise Goals for forecast uncertainty products and services • Specifics – What will Nation get and how good will it be? • Description of what is needed to meet goals and reach vision • Solutions: What is needed to do this? • Suggested roles and responsibilities of enterprise partners • Who should do what and with who? • Enterprise-wide Roadmap • How will all the pieces fit together?

  5. ACUF Participation

  6. NFUSE • Working Group within NOAA advancing forecast uncertainty initiatives through the newly formed program • Merging science & technology with social sciences • Improving current products and services • Leading national-scale project initiatives • NDFD uncertainty products • Probabilistic “Warn-on-Forecast” • Probabilistic QPF

  7. Forecasting UncertaintyNot re-inventing the wheel • NOAA is already providing uncertainty information…but we can do more…do it better…and get the Weather Enterprise and user communities more involved… • Over 100 different products (operational, experimental, under development) provide uncertainty information…including: • Ensemble models (e.g., SREF, GEFS, NAEFS, CFS, wave, wind, streamflow) • National Center forecast products (e.g., HPC, SPC, CPC, TPC) • NDFD (e.g., POP12), MOS products (e.g., POP, Prob. of Thunderstorm) • Public Weather Products (e.g., AFD, point-and-click forecast pages) • AHPS probabilistic products (e.g., Weekly Chance of Exceeding Levels) • Local WFO products (e.g., Hazardous Weather Outlook)

  8. What might the futurelook like? Probabilistic “Warn-on-Forecast”

  9. What might the futurelook like? Precipitation Exceedance Probabilities

  10. What might the futurelook like? NDFD Uncertainty Products

  11. Challenges • Convincing the skeptics… • Funding shortcomings • Multiple end-users…multiple formats…multiple levels of complexity • Training/outreach is essential…this is a paradigm shift!

More Related