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The Role of Government and Preconditions for Knowledge Economy in Vietnam

The Role of Government and Preconditions for Knowledge Economy in Vietnam. Nguyễn Quang A anguyenquang@vnids.com ICT-Forum, Hanoi, 13-10-2009. 1969: The Age of Discontinuity. P. Romer, 1990: Endogenous Technological Change. Knowledge Economy. Rivalry, Excludability.

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The Role of Government and Preconditions for Knowledge Economy in Vietnam

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  1. The Role of Government and Preconditions for Knowledge Economy in Vietnam Nguyễn Quang A anguyenquang@vnids.com ICT-Forum, Hanoi, 13-10-2009

  2. 1969: The Age of Discontinuity P. Romer, 1990: Endogenous Technological Change Knowledge Economy

  3. Rivalry, Excludability • Economic goods (rival~nonrival; excluadable~nonexcludable) • Private goods ~ public goods • Things, objects, skills ~ rival goods → market (shirt, hair-cut, ability to add,… → property rights, single price,..) • Ideas ~ nonrival → partial excludable (intellectual property rights) → R&D → nonmarket

  4. Neoclasical (Solow 1956; Swan 1956) Y = AKβL1- β Y: Total output A: technology is given K: physical capital L: Labor Modern (P. Romer 1990) Y(t) = A(t)X(t)βL(t)1- β Y: Total output A: stock of ideas (endogenous) X: stock of rival physical goods L: labor Growth Models

  5. Ideas, Institutions, Populations, Human Capital • Ideas • Institutions (organization, conventions, rules,…) • Populations • Human capital (skill to produce rival goods ~ skills to produce ideas) • Realm of market ↔ Realm of science

  6. Fact 1: Increses in the extent of the market

  7. Fact 2: Accelerating growth

  8. Fact 3: Variation in growth rates

  9. Fact 4: Large income and TFP differences

  10. Fact 5: Rising human capital

  11. Fact 6: Long-run stability of relative wages

  12. Growth models explaining these facts Y = F(A,X,L) • Y: total output • X : stock of rival physical goods • L : labor • A : set of ideas Y(t) = A(t)X(t)βL(t)1- β dA/dt = δHa.A1/ β; Ha = H.capital in research

  13. Economy

  14. Interactions

  15. 3 sectors as a tripod Economy

  16. Ideas, Institutions, population, human capital Interactions between these variables • ↑ Market (↑globalization, ↑ urbanization)← nonrivalry of ideas, populations • Institutions: Public education, university system → ↑human capital • Accelerating growth ← Positive feedback loop (population, ideas) • Institutions are ideas

  17. Vietnam • Integration: OK • Institutions: ? • Human capital: ? • Population: • Environment for creation and propagation of ideas? • Role of government?

  18. Thanks Nguyen Quang A anguyenquang@vnids.com

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