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3. JOE HERMANCOO KUNI AUTOMOTIVE
4. 2011 - What’s Next Joe Herman
COO
Kuni Automotive
5. Agenda Review of 2008-010
Public Model - Survives the ‘Perfect Storm’
Takeaway Lessons & Why this is important going forward
Where Are We ?
2011 Consolidation - What’s Next?
Publics/Large Privates/Private Equity/’Other’
Regional Groups – Optimum Opportunity to Grow Now
A 2011 -2012 Strategy
Optimize Your Structure for Growth, Merger, or Sale
2011 Dealership Operations
Challenges and Opportunities
6. 2008 - 2009The Foundation Crumbles BIG PICTURE -TRAILING:
Financial Crash ‘D-day’ – 9/15/2008 Lehman Brothers Fails
Disappearance of Asset Backed Securities (ABS) & Derivatives Markets
Mortgage Crisis
Housing Collapse
Senior Credit Disappears
Retail Credit Disappears
Leasing Disappears
GM and Chrysler file Bankruptcies
US In Financial Crises – Unemployment Soars
Potential for 2nd Great Depression in US - World Follows into Crises
SAAR 9 M? 10 M? 11 M?
Dealers Close
Dealers Fail
HEAD TO THE BUNKER! mentality prevails…Cu t Everything.
7. 2009 - 2010The Rebuilding Process BIG PICTURE – EMERGING:
Fed Strategy - “TOO BIG TO FAIL” …Works for us.
Citibank /Bank of America /AIG / Merrill
GM / Chrysler
Consumer Credit Reappears
GM/Chrysler Re-emerge
Public Company Auto Retail Model Survives
Wall Street support of auto retail and OEMs returns
General Motors IPO
UC Wholesale Values Soar (Scrappage rate exceeding SAAR)
Leasing Reappears
Most Dealers Adapt and Survive…Many thrive.
Top Private Groups Perform Well
Dealer Body Shrinks = More Throughput for Survivors
SAAR Rises
Senior Credit emerging
8. Where Do We Stand We Today?
Public Auto Retail Model Survives
Essential validation for financial Community confidence
Retail credit returning…More coming - Ally, Toronto Dominion/CFC
Vehicle securitization (ABS) markets return
Used Car shortages / Values rise:
Enables financing for Leasing
Domestic OEMs Profitable @ 11 M SAAR
Senior Credit – Returning
Shifts in consumer tastes still evolving
Domestics will do better.
CAFÉ forcing OEMs shift to smaller, fuel efficient, and EV
Effect on Luxury of ‘downsizing’?
Brand gainers/ Brand losers still in question
Many dealers still need to sell / exit – With fewer buyers!
9. Public Auto Retail is ValidatedWhy is this Important in 2011?
1991/92 - “Auto Consolidation For Dummies”…Is unpublished.
Newco leaders with no auto or auto retail experience
“Model is outdated…needs to be re-invented”
In the beginning opinions of retailers were minimalized
Many early strategic decisions poorly conceived
1995 - Public Era Begins: Wall Street & Investor Expectations
Auto retailing would become like other Big Box retail
OEMs would become less influential.
Low appreciation for impertinence and value of dealership talent.
Higher PubCo operating costs (Sarbanes, management, CapEx…etc.)
10. The Public Model - Ctd. 1995 – 2007 Public Co Store Operations
Publics monetize 100% of earnings
No means to reward top GMs with ‘meaningful’ equity
High turnover…Significant loss of top store talent
Additional layers of management becomes necessary
Difficulties recruiting talent into tightly controlled new working cultures
Good performance with easier to operate ‘Blue Chip’ dealerships
Luxury & Top Tier Import
Poor/ or very poor operating performance with ‘harder to operate’ stores
Domestics & Second Tier Brands
Forces the disposal of previously high performing locations
OEM Resistance –Result from declining performance at high volume stores
-Framework Agreements
Lots of Operating Challenges!
11. PubCo Retailers Survive 2007-2009 “The Worst of Times”
SO!…How was the Public model able to survive…and thrive given some of the built-in challenges?
Why are Publics currently performing at high levels?
Why have share prices rebounded?
What are the takeaway lessons for Retailers?
Why is this important for 2011 acquisition activity?
12. # 1...Urgency on increasing shareholder value by striving to constantly improving operating results
Operate Inside the Box – Strategize Outside the Box
Constant Innovation
Best Practices - Constant search and refinement
Top tier Retail and Financial talent at Corporate and Regional levels
Cross-pollination through experienced leaders who have wide Industry exposure
Sophisticated metric development and benchmarking…Managing to identified metrics
Rigorous ground-up budgeting processes and focus on driving performance to achieving performance benchmarks
Sophisticated operating reports
100% Adoption and implementation of identified best practices
Partnerships with Best-In-Class Vendors
Access to best personnel from top national vendors
Access to best-in-class systems and tools…Development of innovative and proprietary tools
Public Core CompetenciesWhat They Do Well
13. Public Core Competencies - Ctd. Top level IT and MIS personnel
Superb Balance Sheet management
Acquisition Strategy – Own Only Top Stores
Steady pruning of poor fits bad locations
The acquisition desk is always open…Disciplined approach to growth
Close cooperation with OEMs/lenders to seek opportunistic buys
Dedicate resources to maximize scale to cost savings
Wholesale and Retail Financing
Financial Services
Vendors
Etc.
Publics seek out and take advantage of every profit opportunity
Work Ethic…Very few days on the Golf Course.
14.
Is this relevant for ‘What’s Next’?
Yes
Why?
It will help enable Acquisition Financing
15. Lender Acquisition Financing Recent History 2006-07 A Competitive Credit Market
50%+ Financing of entire transaction was ‘normal’
(Incl. Goodwill, Working Capital, Transaction Costs)
Liberal advances on RE ‘appraisals’
2008 “We will NOT finance a **** Air Ball!!”
2009-10 Leverage returns ‘Risk Based Pricing’
2011 Will open for solid organizations
16. Public Company Success Enables Acquisition Financing Limited credit will restrict the number of high multiple transactions in 2011
‘Best’ stores still trading @ 4-5 x proforma –
‘Ask’ is still 6-7x for Legacy / Top luxury (Luxury sellers will wait)
Private Equity returns require 1 to 1 leverage…PE is currently “Out”
Acquisition credit leverage enables satisfactory ROE for high multiple transactions
2008 shook confidence of the Financial Community to the core
Since Recession lenders are ‘Career Risk Adverse ‘
PubCo performance during downturn validated the Retail Model
For Banks / Financial Press / Analysts
\
17. Summary Banks continue to consolidate.
Key decisions are being made at Credit Committees much further up the food chain than ever before…By Officers who frequently have less knowledge of our Sector than before, and therefore rely more on written analysis for support than previously.
Analysts covering Public Auto Retailers provide written support.
The validation of PubCo performance is helping everyone in our Sector with our Lenders.
Solid Retailers with ‘Dry Powder’ can grow significantly in 2011
18. Acquisition Market Potential for Deals is Robust:
Many Potential Sellers:
Dealers with financial challenges
Dealers with facility Issues
Dealers in declining economies (tuck in potential for market survivors)
Aging Dealers with Succession and Estate issues
OEMs pushing for ‘White Knight’ solutions to fix problems
Banks looking for ‘White Knight’ solutions to fix problems
Etc.
Current Acquirers
Most are careful / strategic
Few are aggressive.
Opportunity window for Groups that are prepared 2011 Consolidation ActivityCurrent Market
19. Scale is the biggest Challenge
First step on a new IPO ladder will need to be $2B +/-
Other Requirements
Top Tier Financial Advisor (Goldman/Morgan/Merrill…etc)
Not attractive without scale for a good Advisor ‘Payday”
Strategic Leader…’Rock Star’ acceptable to Financial markets, OEMs, and acquisition candidates.
A Story….‘Why We Will Be Different’
Operating Model and Focus?
Geography?
Etc
A Cornerstone Legacy Group for the base to build on.
Room for Another Public?Yes....’But’
20. IPO – ‘Cornerstone’ Candidates A Very Small Universe 2010 Auto News Top 100* *(Not all groups submit their numbers…Ex: DCH)
$3.5 B+ (2)
Van Tuyl
Hendrick
$1 B+ (7)
Garff (Has Partnership with Leucadia National (LUK NASDAQ)
Larry Miller
Herb Chambers
Staluppi
Dave Wilson
Braman
Fletcher Jones
$700 M-$1 B (15 companies)
$500 M - $700 M (8 companies)
The best IPO Candidate list is a short one.
21. Is a 2011 Roll-Up Possible? Yes...But Complex & Difficult Two Previous Models…Gp1 & ABG were very successful
Roll-Up Issues
Dealer group sellers have high expectations
Assembling scale is similar to IPO but more time consuming and complicated
Will also require a ’Rock Star’ acceptable to Financial markets, OEMs, and acquisition candidates.
Governance issues during initial Private period
Only really ‘works’ for participants IF there is an IPO
Financial Sponsor with significant equity and long term horizon
i.e. MSD, Cerebus, Warburg, etc.
Will require sufficient leverage to enable satisfactory PE returns
Key OEMs will make approvals difficult
OEMs now sophisticated…They “know where the train is headed”
Poor experiences with store performance post acquisition
Framework performance agreements at onset will be a ‘must’
22. What’s Next With Private Equity? Private Equity is NOT a dead issue…It is on the sidelines
PE witnessed and was surprised by Sector resilience and Model validation
Auto market will eventually require new sources of additional Capital
OEMs now understand but still do not like PE.
But OEMs recognize PE as one avenue that could facilitate future market rep issues.
Most PE Funds require an exit and will require you to have serious skin in game.
You make your “real $” when they make theirs.…When they exit.
Many PE Funds have problems with their Fund Investors over the OEM ‘Dealer Control’ requirement
Some PE Groups with Sector knowledge made large returns buying PubCo bonds and stocks
Normal returns may not be that exciting now
Post- Recession environment has many other high return target opportunities for them
23. Private Equity –Ctd
PE will be ‘OUT’ until acquisition leverage is fully available
1 to 1 is needed for acceptable returns
PE cannot get the returns they require on higher multiple transactions w/o leverage
Large Long-Horizon PE Funds ‘Not Interested’ unless they see a timely path to real scale
Need to put large amounts of Capital to work
Large investments require the same amount of involvement as smaller ones
PE’s assessment of YOUR leadership and future engagement is paramount
Model is to build and improve using their Capital to maximize everyone’s exit opportunity
PE Partnerships are difficult and time consuming to negotiate and structure
Conclusion….PE will return when Credit markets are active.
24. 2011 Acquisition ActivityPublics/Large Privates/Roll-Ups Publics:
Will make disciplined strategic acquisitions that add immediate value
Will return to domestic franchises
Will optimize portfolios (buy/sell) where Framework limits are rigid
Work closely with OEMs to solve market problems/benefit themselves
Large Private Groups:
Will continue to expand in a similar fashion as Publics
Will be opportunistic with turnarounds
They can take more time to ramp up performance
Will get the ‘1st Call’ from OEMs looking for assistance with market rep
Roll-Ups:
One large roll-up was being worked on during 2010
25. Another Consolidation Option?Non-Sector Public
If a Dealer was close with a Non-Sector Public Company CEO?
And if that CEO was in control?
And if a Partnership advantaged both parties?
It could create an additional avenue.
Thet model exists Garff /Leucadia (LUK-Nasdaq)
26. 2011 Consolidation Main ArenaLarge Private & Regional Groups Well Capitalized and Top Performing Large Private and Regional Groups
Are Nimble
Many have acquisition lines
Will keep growing
Will get OEM /Lender ‘1st calls’ if Groups respond and act quickly
Can pay competitive multiples on attractive opportunities
Current Credit Restrictions
Bad for overall market…But potentially good for these Companies ..If they are prepared
Maximize dry powder availability before it’s needed
Don’t start looking for the $ at the last minute.
New growth Entries will need to sign OEM Framework agreements at some point
Sales Effectiveness
CSI
CapEx
27. What Should You Do?Opportunity Window Is Open
Position yourself to preserve all future options
Take advantage of the moment…Grow while the window is open
Maximize your future value by committing to elevate store performance
Plan to maximize your value options when the next wave breaks
Have Choices:
Be a Consolidation Leader
Merge
Sell
The preparation is the essentially the same for all paths
Incremental value should be created regardless of the path you choose.
28. 2011 Store Operations What’s ‘Here and Now’? Web Sites have become the Primary Dealership ‘lot’ – Brick and mortar facility is still important but secondary.
New digital marketing metrics and analysis are emerging…Knowing what they are and how to apply them will become key to maximizing sales performance.
An ever-increasing focus on Pre-Owned sales :
New tools (vAuto) –enabling sales increases - Commoditization
Science and Process winning the war over a disappearing Art
CPO availability thins in 2012-13 - Fewer leases during downturn
Heavy competition for harder to source Pre-owned inventory
Dealers who learn how to use the new tools well will dominate
29. 2011 Store Operations – Ctd. The Next Crises – Fixed Operations Declining Volume
Better quality products with less warranty repair
Longer service intervals
Partial Solutions:
Sell more to existing customers.
Inspection tools
Declined Service Marketing through CRM/DMS/Outside Vendors
Increased marketing efforts to current owners
Email capture initiatives are fundamental
In the near future we will compete with OEMs, who are working 0n ‘cradle-to-grave’ owner retention solutions
The Battle : THEIR Owners or OUR Owners
Beyond CRM - Dealer Data Warehouses for Owner Communication
30. 2011 Store Operations - Ctd Performance advantages are shifting towards Groups with ‘Best-In-Class’ Technology & Process Vendor Partnerships.
Require Mandatory Implementation at all Stores:
Some current Leaders:
vAuto
DealerSocket
DealerTrack
Resource/JM&A
MPi
dealer.com
JD Power
Manage to Operating Benchmarks…Learn from the Publics!
The Publics and large Private Groups are light years ahead of most in developing & managing to more sophisticated key operating metrics.
Hire someone who has had a key financial/operating role with a Public.
Learn from what they have been taught
Bury your ego….You will perform better and make more money.
31. In Conclusion...
32. What Should You Do?Summary:
Position yourself to preserve all future options
Take advantage of the moment…Grow while the window is open
Maximize your future value by committing to elevate store performance
Plan to maximize your value options when the next wave breaks
Have Choices:
Be a Consolidation Leader
Merge
Sell
The preparation is the essentially the same for all paths
Incremental value should be created regardless of the path you choose.
33. Thank You!
Joe Herman
COO
Kuni Automotive
Questions?
34. ERICH J. MERKLEPRODUCT STRATEGY COMMUNICATIONS MANAGERFORD MOTOR COMPANY
35. DAVID L. ZUCHOWSKIVICE PRESIDENT, NATIONAL SALESHYUNDAI MOTOR AMERICA