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Proxy Modelling

Proxy Modelling. Analytical Steps. Step 1: Understand the Proposed Project –What is. Scope - the extent to which it tackles a specific purpose. the extent individuals might benefit from services, different regions covered, or issues dealt with as part of the project

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Proxy Modelling

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  1. Proxy Modelling Analytical Steps

  2. Step 1: Understand the Proposed Project –What is • Scope - the extent to which it tackles a specific purpose. • the extent individuals might benefit from services, different regions covered, or issues dealt with as part of the project • Lifecycle-successive stages the project passes through, • such as the design, build and operation stages of the project. • It is important that all stages in the Lifecycle of the project are costed • Scale-set of amounts that measure the size of the project. • Context in which the project is being implemented • incorporate any extraneous variables that would have an impact on the costing. For example, political considerations

  3. Step 2: Comparative Analysis & Methodology • Identify key characteristics based on an analysis of the purpose, scope, lifecycle, scale and context of the project b) Analyze Political Processes- Environment assessment required? c)Identify Key Variables • These vary from one infrastructure type to another d) Develop Comparative jurisdictions- ensure its apple to apple- • Similar infrastructure-lifecycle, width if a road, type, • Use and Purpose-volume & type of traffic • Geography & climate-topograpgy • Ideal number of Jurisdictions is 6-7 but 3-4 is enough

  4. STEP 2: Comparative Methodology continued

  5. Step 3: Cost Buckets(Categories of Data) • Capital Expenditure Expenditures that will go beyond the immediate year (e.g. plant, property and equipment), .. • Operating + Maintenance costs costs to keep and run the project

  6. Step 4: Data Collection • Scenario 1: No time • Raise good & useful questions for Parliamentarians e.g lifecycle costs, • Scenario 2: Some time- Data Sources include • Domestic data based on similar projects • Look in GN-PBO • epbo blasts • Good Practices for data reference- include a cover sheet to define the terms and references( if agreeable, need volunteers to create a template) • Checklist of Data Sources ( if agreeable, need volunteers to create a template by probably)

  7. Step 5:Normalize the Data • Same currency in real terms (select a base year) • Identify specifications and break down costs accordingly (e.g. per metre, per kilometer, per user etc.) • Identify Quantities (e.g. number of users, traffic volume, etc.) • Look for unique costs and outliers and remove them

  8. Step 6: Develop a shadow cost • Identify the cost drivers- Can use Correlations • Develop a reasonable cost range • Establish if the Government`s cost is reasonable-within the range!

  9. Step 7: Defensibility of Results • Peer Review the work -the GN-PBO community, researchers or experts in that sector • Publish the Methodology

  10. Feedback & Proposals for Improvement!

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