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Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resources Advisory Committee

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Integrated Coal-fired Gasification Plant Resource Assessment. Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resources Advisory Committee Portland, OR January 22, 2009. General take on IGCC.

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Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resources Advisory Committee

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  1. Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power PlanIntegrated Coal-fired Gasification PlantResource Assessment Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resources Advisory Committee Portland, OR January 22, 2009 December 9, 2008

  2. General take on IGCC Lots of interest in 2004 - 2007 period -many projects proposed • Prospective GHG policy • Adaptability of IGCC for CO2 capture • Perception that IGCC performance (HR, emissions) would be markedly better than PC though at somewhat greater cost • EPAct 2005 incentives. Post 2007 decline in enthusiasm - realism arrives - 3 - 5 healthy projects • HR lower, costs higher than anticipated, not that much better than PC • Construction cost escalation + capital -intensive technology • Sequestration not a slam-dunk, proven sequestration (EOR, depleted gas & oil fields) may be limited • Lawyers arrive on scene - sequestration liability/rights • Decade until operational seques Remaining big advantage vs: PC is proven and lower cost CO2 separation technology PRB coal suitability uncertain - slurry gasifiers (GE) less suited to high-moisture coals December 9, 2008

  3. Coal price forecast December 9, 2008

  4. Conoco-Phillips (CoP) E-Gas gasifiers w/ 2 x 7FB GTGs + HRSGs & STG Oxygen-blown entrained-flow two-stage slagging gasifier Two gasification trains S recovery, particulate filters, C bed Hg control Considerations Operating experience w/subbituminous coals (Plaquemine & Wabash) Short refractory life (high operating temps) High CH4 content (reduced CO2 separation capability) Technology December 9, 2008

  5. Lazard EIA Proposed 2008 (for hypothetical 2012 service) estimate $3600/kW Mesaba Capital cost estimates: IGCC plants (no CS) NETL/DOE December 9, 2008

  6. EIA Lazard Proposed 2008 (for hypothetical 2020 service) estimate $4800/kW NETL/DOE Capital cost estimates: IGCC plants (w/CS) December 9, 2008

  7. Proposed IGCC power plant assumptions December 9, 2008

  8. Excluding CO2 transportation & sequestration cost IGCC cost elements IOU financing 2020 service 80% CF December 9, 2008

  9. Resource optionsEarly 2020s Transmission cost & losses to point of LSE wholesale delivery No federal investment or production tax credits Baseload operation (CC - 85%CF, Nuc 85% CF, SCPC 85%) Medium NG and coal price forecast (Proposed 6th Plan) Bingaman/Specter safety valve CO2 cost December 9, 2008

  10. Questions • How should we view CO2 sequestration in terms of the plan? • Available or potential resource? • If available, when, where and how much? • Any other useful IGCC cost or performance information out there? • Does our baseline forecast of future capital cost trends remain reasonable? December 9, 2008

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