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Non-conventional Feed Resources in China's Food Security: Implications for Developing Countries

This article discusses the importance of non-conventional feed resources (NCFR) in China's food security and its implications for developing countries. It explores the role of livestock in production systems, concerns about livestock in climate change, and the sustainability of livestock and crop systems. The article also highlights the impact of productivity and efficiencies on animal productivity and the reasons why China doesn't become an exporter of maize. Additionally, it examines the soybean connection and disconnection from maize and the significance of NCFR and crop residues in maintaining China's food self-sufficiency.

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Non-conventional Feed Resources in China's Food Security: Implications for Developing Countries

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  1. Non-conventional Feed Resources in China’s Food Security: Implications for Developing Countries James R. Simpson Affiliate Professor and Senior Fellow, Washington State University Professor Emeritus, University of Florida Professor Emeritus, Ryukoku University, Japan 17th Asian Australasian Animal Production Animal Science Congress, Fukuoka, Japan, August 22-25, 2016

  2. The Problem • Food security for developing countries is a worldwide issue. The role of livestock in production systems is undergoing extensive debate by a growing contingent that • advocate shifts from meat and other livestock products • have concerns about livestock in climate change • desire Information and studies about sustainability of livestock and crop systems.

  3. NCFR as One Viable Sustainable Solution • The specific problem dealt with today is the seldom recognized value of non-conventional feed resources (NCFR). • China’s ability to feed itself, and the impact it will have on world food supplies continues to be cause for concern. • China has long recognized the importance of NCFR and crop residues in its feeding systems

  4. NCFR and By-products • NCFR are defined in various ways. The primary term used is all feedstuffs not commonly used in commercially produced rations in modern type feeding systems • NCFR do not commonly enter commercial channels • By-products, in contrast to NCFRs, are residual feedstuffs obtained when a feed or food crop is processed • By-products are regularly sold commercially

  5. The Model • Especially developed for long-term projections of animal inventories, feedstuffs requirements and feedstuffs availabilities. • The program is very large and complicated, with more than 5,000 lines of spreadsheet program, 800 variables and more than 2,200 parameters. Results over the past 20 years show its accuracy. • The method used is to calculate all requirements and availabilities on the basis of metabolizable energy (ME) and crude protein (CP).

  6. Economics Modeling is Not Appropriate for Long-term Projections of an Individual Country’s Ability to Feed Itself • The reason is the impact of technological changes far exceeds that of economic variables such as prices used in global projections. • Databases on crops and livestock have improved dramatically. • I found that the NCFR maize fodder is the most sensitive, largest-scale, and primary commodity to focus on.

  7. CONVERSION OF ENERGY AND PROTEIN TO TONS OF MAIZE AND SOYBEANS • ALL OF THE ENERGY AND PROTEIN IN ANIMAL FEEDSTUFFS REQUIREMENTS AND AVAILABILITIES FROM ALL SOURCES ARE ADDED UP • HUMAN REQUIREMENTS, BASED ON CALORIES AND GRAMS, ARE CONVERTED TO MEGACALORIES AND TONS AND SUBTRACTED FROM THE NET OF ANIMAL REQUIREMENTS AND CROP AVAILABILITIES • THE RESULTING DIFFERENCE IS EITHER A DEFICIT (POTENTIAL IMPORTS) OR A SURPLUS (AVAILABLE FOR EXPORTS OR OTHER USES) • THOSE DEFICITS OR SURPLUSSES ARE CONVERTED TO MAIZE AND SOYBEAN EQUIVALENTS IN METRIC TONS

  8. Impact of Productivity And Efficiencies On Animal Productivity 2007 2015 2020 2030 Kg of meat per head of inventory Beef 60 66 79 96 Pork 106 113 122 137 Chicken 2.4 2.7 3.5 5.1 Tons milk/dairy cow 2.8 3.6 5.0 6.5 Kg eggs /hen 9.1 10.7 14.0 16.0 Naturally, (hint) having specialized in international animal production, I would be thrilled to get questions about these numbers during the question time

  9. MID-TERM CRITICAL QUESTION: WHY DOSEN’T CHINA BECOME AN EXPORTER OF MAIZE? • SEVERAL REASONS. ONE IS THAT MAIZE EQUIVALENCES ARE BASED ON METABOLIZABLE ENERGY AND NOT ON ACTUAL MAIZE PRODUCTION • A KEY BACKGROUND REASON IS THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT IS IN A RUSH TO “MODERNIZE” THE RURAL AREA • THAT POLICY HAS LED TO EXPANSION OF FARM SIZES AND PRODUCTION INTENSITY, PARTICULARLY ON PIG AND POULTRY OPERATIONS • TRADITIONAL OPERATIONS WERE BASED ON NCFR AND CROP RESIDUES • CURRENT PRODUCTION PRACTICES ARE BASED ON MAIZE GRAIN AND FARMLAND IS DECLINING. CHINA NEEDS ALL ITS MAIZE

  10. THE SOYBEAN CONNECTION AND DISCONNECTION FROM MAIZE • SOYBEANS PROVIDE ANOTHER WAY TO UNDERSTAND HOW PROTEIN IS LINKED TO FODDER TREATMENT—AND INCREASES IN FOOD CONSUMPTION • SOYBEANS ARE BOTH PRODUCED IN CHINA AND IMPORTED • SOYBEANS, IN CONTRAST TO MAIZE, HAVE SIGNIFICANT AND GROWING IMPORTS • THERE ARE TWO MAIN REASONS • GREAT DEMAND FOR SOYBEAN OIL DOMESTICALLY AND AS A VALUE ADDED EXPORT • DEVELOPMENT OF AQUACULTURE FOR DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, BUT ESPECIALLY AS A VALUE ADDED EXPORT. CHINA IS THE WORLDS LARGEST IMPORTER OF SOYBEANS AND THE WORLD’S LARGEST EXPORTER OF AQUACULTURE PRODUCTS

  11. AQUACULTURE IS PROTEIN BASED WHILE RUMINANTS ARE PRIMARLY ENERGY BASED

  12. THE WRAP-UPS—TWO PARTS OF TITLE NON-CONVENTIONAL FEED RESOURCES IN CHINA’S FOOD SECURITY • NCFR AND CROP RESIDUES ARE A MAJOR REASON WHY CHINA HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN 95 PERCENT FOOD SELF SUFFICIENCY AND WHY IT CAN CONTINUE TO DO SO IN THE FUTURE • OTHER MAIN REASONS ARE GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS TO ENHANCE ANIMAL AND CROP PRODUCTION GROWTH • RAPID DECLINE OF HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH HAS BEEN A MAJOR FACTOR IN REDUCING DEMAND FOR FOOD AND CONSEQUENTLY ANIMAL AND CROP PRODUCTION NEEDED • THE REDUCED PRESSURE ON RUMINANTS MEANS LESS STOVER IS NEEDED • CHINA CAN CONTINUE TO MEET ENERGY REQUIREMENTS. THAT MEANS RELATIVELY SMALL QUANTITIES OF MAIZE IMPORTS WILL BE NEEDED • THE BIG BOOM IN SOYBEAN IMPORT GROWTH IS OVER ALTHOUGH 80-100 MILLION MT WILL BE REQUIRED ANNUALLY IN THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE

  13. IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES • TAKE NON-CONVENTIONAL FEED RESOURCES AND CROP RESIDUES SERIOUSLY. BUILD A PROGRAM AROUND THEM • THINK ABOUT IT. CROP RESIDUES AND NCFR PROVIDE 36 PERCENT OF ALL ME COMPARED WITH 29 PERCENT OF PRINCIPAL CROPS IN CHINA • CROP RESIDUES AND NCFR PROVIDE 28 PERCENT OF PROTEIN WHILE PRINCIPAL CROPS CONTRIBUTE 16 PERCENT • CARRY OUT AN ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF A CROP RESIDUE AND NCFR ENHANCEMENT PROGRAM SIMILAR TO THE ONE CHINA HAS

  14. MORE IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES • MY SUGGESTION IS TO LEARN ABOUT THE CHINA HISTORY AND PROGRAM ON CROP RESIDUES, NCFR, AND TREATMENT TO ENHANCE QUALITY THAT BEGAN AROUND 1992, IF THE APPROPRIATE RESEARCHERS HAVE NOT DONE SO. • I AM CONVINCED A CROP RESIDUE AND NCFR PROGRAM FOCUSED ON QUALITY ENHANCEMENT CAN HAVE A BIG PAYOFF IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES • I REALIZE THAT OTHER COUNTRIES IN ASIA HAVE CROP RESIDUE AND NCFR PROGRAMS. • BUT, I DO ADMIT TO NOT HAVING MUCH KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THEM. SO, I AM EAGER TO HEAR MORE ABOUT THEM • WELL, NOW IT IS QUESTION TIME. SO, FIRE AWAY!

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