Planning Issues in Agriculture csustan/AgStudies/courses

1. Planning Issues inAgriculturewww.csustan.edu/AgStudies/courses Fall 2007

2. Population and Urban Growth 58 Counties in California

3. Central Valley: 18 Counties (Shasta –Kern ) 42,000 square miles 450 miles long (ex. Boston to Washington) 40-60 miles wide over 5.5 million population (2000)

4. San Joaquin Valley: 8 Counties 27,276 square miles 270 miles long 1- Northern San Joaquin Valley: (San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced) 2- Southern San Joaquin Valley: ( Madera, Tulare, Kings, Fresno, Kern) Sacramento Valley: (2 parts) Sacramento Metro - urban in character North Sacramento Valley Land and climate changes – growing changes, uniqueness to valleys and areas

5. Air quality bases (air region-basin) • Inversions and air flows • Sacramento Valley Air Basin • San Joaquin Air Basin • Airflow/pollution…where?

6. Watersheds: (All rivers flow downhill ?) 1-Sacramento River 2-San Joaquin River 3-Tulare/Kings Where do they all end up?

7. Common characteristics of the valley region Agriculture- linkage Diversity 30% employment

8. California is the most productive ag state ( # 1 in production) San Joaquin valley produces ½ of states total in its 8 counties 6 of 8 counties produce more than a billion dollars/ year Entire Central Valley produces 2/3 of states production

9. Valley Characteristics Common Themes

10. 1 – Fast paced population growth California 1950-2000 – 220% Valley 190.8% Stanislaus 251.3% Madera 233.1% Merced 201.7% Kern 189.8% Fresno 189.1% San Joaquin 180.7% Kings 176.8% Tulare 146.6%

11. 2 – Increasing urbanization • Bay Area commuters • Prison Construction • Traffic Congestion

12. 3 – Increasing diversity • Cultural • Economic • 4 – Increasing divergence • Areas becoming different • Diverging from coastal areas • and the rest of the state • 5 – Unique Character • Each county, city, and unincorporated community has a story to tell

13. Historical Growth in California 1950 – 1970 CA. 88.57% Valley not growing as fast (only 44%) Bay area and coastal areas – incredible growth 1970 – 2000 CA. 69.8% Valley – 103.1% Highest growth in the valley – Stanislaus, Merced, Fresno, Madera (prison) 196.5%

14. Population Growth 1990 – 2000 CA. 13.8% Valley 20.5% Madera 39.8% Kings 27.6% Kern 21.4% Stanislaus 20.6% Highest shift from North Valley to South valley Assignment for next week…what has the population done since 2000? (hint: look up the CA Dept of Finance)

15. Looking Forward

16. Fastest growing cities 1990s Riverbank 84.2% (highest birth rate) Los Banos 78.2% Newman 70.% Tracy 69.6% Lathrop 52.7% What about the 2000’s? (For next Week)

17. Slowest growing cities 1990s Atwater 3.7% (closing Castle Air Force Base) Sonora 6.5% (physical restriction, growth debate) Dos Palos 9.2% (poor, high minority) Lodi 9.9% (Why?) Merced 13.9% (Large population) Modesto 14.6% (Large population) Stockton 15.6% (Large population) What about the 2000’s? (For next Week)

18. Hispanic share of population growth • Merced 116.2% • Stanislaus 79.7% • San Joaquin 71.6% • Mariposa 22.3% • Calaveras 12.3% • Tuolumne 11.9% • Decline of non-Hispanic • Statewide 1990 25.8% Hispanic • 2000 32.4% Hispanic • Valley 1990 30% Hispanic • 2000 40% Hispanic

19. Population Density of our Cities (people per square mile) In 1990: San Jose 4545 Atwater 4250 Modesto 5368 Stockton 3987 Lodi 4896 Tracy 3380 Ceres 4616 Merced 3460 Manteca 4614 Los Banos 1964 In 2002: San Jose 5359 Atwater 4625 Modesto 6576 Stockton 4825 Lodi 5604 Tracy 6833 Ceres 6366 Merced 4106 Manteca 6250 Los Banos 4021 (Normally density down in large cities – growth spreading) Cycles

20. Population Density of our Cities • If population densities normally decrease in large cities, why are densities increasing in valley towns? • What are our population densities today? Out of class assignment…bring next week. • Where do I find this info?

21. Population Density Web http://ca.rand.org/stats/community/popdensity.html Investigate the Internet for other links for information as well as the list for the class. If you can’t access this site from home, you will have to use a university computer.

22. Historical Population in California • 1950 to 1960 doubled • 1950 – 2000 population explosion • 12% of the population in US • 1 out of every 8 people • 1950 – Fresno 276,515 • Orange County 216,224 • 1970 – Orange 1,421,233 • Fresno 413,329 • 1950 – Santa Clara 290,547 • 1970 - Santa Clara 1,065,313

23. Population continued… • Point: incredible coastal growth due to economic change • San Jose (surpassed population of San Francisco) • Became city in 1950 95,000 • 1960 204,000 • 1970 569,400 • L.A. value of Agriculture Production • 1950 – 4.1 million • 1970 – 7 million • Today – 7 million?____ Inflation? (Ag Census data)

24. Population growth – consequence of economic change…opportunity for a better life • 70’s - 2000 • Technology • Cold war • Expansion export • Why the valley? • 1 – low cost of living • affordable housing, • inland movement from coastal areas, • young families • 2 – higher birth rates • 3 – movement from abroad (why?)

25. Growth effects: • More retail • Crowded • Pollution • More consumer choices • Faster population growth within cities • Racially and ethnically changing • Diversity increased in valley • Highest in Tulare, Merced, Madera, Fresno, Kings

26. Urbanization in valley • …migration from coast • Future population projections • 2000 – 2010 2020 • CA. 15.3% 31.2% • Valley 24.1% 51% • double in valley (7 million) by 2040 • What will that do to Agriculture in the Valley? • Fresno is #1 Ag county in USA ________ NASS

27. Other Valley statistics. California population under 18 California 27.3% Merced 34.5% Stanislaus 31.1% San Joaquin 31.0%___?____ Calaveras 22.8%____?____

28. With all this growth, will people in the valley be better off ? Poverty rates(%) Why? Lowest Santa Clara 8.2 San Joaquin 17 Kern 20 Kings 22.8 Madera 22.9 Fresno 24.3 Merced 24.7 Highest Tulare 26.6

29. As a function of Education Level? % HS graduate Bachelors degree US 81.6 25.1 CA 78 27.5 SC 85.1 41.9 SJ 77.2 13.8 Kern 69.4 13.8 Fresno 67.8 19.1 Stan. 63 13.5 Tulare 62.1 11.9

30. As a function of Income ? • Valley average • State has changed, valley has not • Middle valley – Ag has not changed • Housing prices go up in the valley • affordability goes down • higher % of people married

31. Unemployment rates • 2000 Nov. 2001 2006 • State 5.0 5.8 ____ • SC 2.0 6.6 ____ • SJ 8.8 9.6 ____ • Stan. 10.4 10.8 ____ • Kern 11.3 10.7 ____ • King 14.0 13.8 ____ • Fresno 14.3 13.6 ____ • Merced 14.4 14.6 ____ • Tulare 15.4 15.8 ____ • Extra Credit…fill in the blanks…site source..

32. It is believed that high unemployment was from agriculture, but this is not true. • 1974-1997 • 1- pattern same as the state’s • Stanislaus labor force same, but… • we have seasonal employment • back in 70s fewer jobs/more people/economy problem • 2- July ’76 certain unemployment up in CA • Stan lower than that of state • 3- fluctuations aren’t that great – doesn’t vary

33. Relationship – Ag contributes but does not become the main reason for unemployment

34. Next…Should we be concerned about preserving Agriculture land in the Valley?