Rising international concern , e.g. UN ACC SWR 17 th Session, Paris Oct. 1996

1. Hydrologyfor the Environment,Life and Policy ( HELP )GOALTo deliver social, economic and environmental benefit to stakeholders through sustainable and appropriate use of water by directing hydrological science towards improved integrated catchment management

2. HELP: Background • Rising international concern, e.g. • UN ACC SWR 17th Session, Paris Oct. 1996 • BHS, Exeter, July 1998: request UNESCO/WMO consider 2nd IHD • UNESCO Meeting, Wallingford, Dec. 1998 • new policy-driven hydrological initiative needed • 5th Joint UNESCO/WMO Int. Hydrology Conf., Geneva, Feb. 1999 • HELP unanimously endorsed • WMO Congress, Geneva, June 1999 • Terms of Reference for HELP Taskforce defined • First HELP Task force meeting, Tucson, Nov. 1999 • 45 participants define the scope and nature of HELP

3. HELP: The Essence • WHAT IS THE REQUIRED PRODUCT? hydrological research which is directly responsive to water-related policy and development issues. • WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THE INITIATIVE? a global network of experimental hydrological catchments in a range of bio-climatic zones and socio-economic conditions freely exchanging data and understanding • HOW WILL IT OPERATE? • multi-disciplinary, involving mangers, policy makers and scientists • “bottom up” selection of the science to be undertaken • use existing networks where possible • complementary to other water-related international programmes • new data and knowledge, and capacity building, if required

4. HELP: Key Objectives • BREAK THE “PARADIGM LOCK”: Water related observations will be collected in large catchments. Not just physical measurements (e.g. precipitation and river flow) but sociological, economic, and legal data • BUILD A FRAMEWORK: This will allow water law and policy experts, water resources managers and water scientists to work on water-related problems • FOCUS RESULTS: The involvement of stakeholders will produce results that are directly beneficial to society’s needs

5. HELP: Policy Issues • Water and climate • Water and food • Water quality and human health • Water and the environment • Water and conflict

6. HELP: Hydrological Risks 1. Obtain observed time series for a variable (e.g. runoff) 3. Assume a “theoretical equation” for spectrum, with unknown parameters 2. Express data as a frequency of occurrence spectrum 4. Select "best" equation and optimize the unknown parameters 5. Use knowledge of selected "best“ equation to estimate e.g. One in 10-year 7-day-average low flow, Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves, 100-year flood, etc….

7. HELP: Hydrological Risks • CURRENT BASIS OF HYDROLOGICAL • MANAGEMENT AND DESIGN • The statistical properties of the hydrological variables: • do not change with time • are adequately sampled over a few decades • are entirely “random” in origin

8. HELP: The Paradigm Lock ……based on outdated knowledge and technology Process hydrology Water managers and stakeholders research ideas design output Accepted practices understanding implementation Isolated by legal and professional precedence Isolated by lack of proven utility

9. HELP: Examples of Paradigm Lock • Flood prediction: USA: "Bulletin 17B"(USGS, Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1976/81/82) "Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency“ [recommends use of the "log-Pearson Type 3" Distribution] UK: "Flood Studies Report" (National Environment Research Council, 1975) "Volume 1, Hydrological Studies" [recommends the "Generalized Extreme Value" Distribution • Rainfall Frequency Spectra: "TP- 40" (US Weather Bureau, 1961) "Rainfall Frequency Atlas for the US for Durations from 0.5- 24 hours and Return Periods of 1 -100 year." • Irrigation Needs: "IDP 24" (UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, 1977) "Crop Water Requirements"

10. HELP: Dam Design/Management

11. HELP: ENSO Rainfall Anomalies Rainfall departures for Nov 1997- April 1998 (From BAMS, 1999, 80, 1 - 48)

12. HELP: Atlantic SST and Rainfall Correlation between rainfall and Atlantic cross ITCZ difference (From Servain, J. Geophys. Res. 1991)

13. HELP: ENSO and Hurricanes Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in 10 Warm ENSO Years (1949-92) Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in 10 Cool ENSO Years (1949-92)

14. HELP: ENSO-Monsoon Linkage

15. HELP: Decadal Variability

16. HELP: Accelerating Water Cycle?

17. HELP: Hydrological Risks Observations may suggest sub-grouping the frequency distributions e.g. summer (convective) and winter (frontal) rainfall So far, only local and regional observations have been used to sub-group frequency distributions But global variability indices could be used

18. Global-HELP: The Global Interface Ocean Buoys

19. Global-HELP: Overarching Question "How can knowledge, understanding, and predictive modeling of the influence of global variability and change on hydrological variables and remotely sensed data be used to improve the management and design of water resource, agro-hydrologic and eco-hydrologic systems?"

20. Global-HELP: Subsidiary Questions • How significant are the Links Between Global and Catchment Data? How significant is the relationship between the statistics of hydrological variables and observable global phenomena, and how does this change with location? • How Can Remotely Sensed Data and Advanced Data Transfer be Used? How can remote data capture, and advanced information transfer technologies best be applied to improve the management and design of water systems? • Can Seasonal-to-Interannual Variations be Used? How can predictions of seasonal-to-interannual variations be used to improve the management of water? • How Can Knowledge of Multi-Decadal Fluctuations be Used? How significant are multi-decadal fluctuations in climate, and how can knowledge of such fluctuations be used to improve the design of water systems? • How Can Predictions of Anthropogenic Climate Change be Used? What is the hydrological significance of anthropogenic climate change, and how can predictions of such change best be used to improve design of water systems?

21. HELP: How does it work? • HELP is founded on a global network of catchments • National/local authorities can suggest catchments for inclusion • Catchments must: • Provide an opportunity to study a water policy or management issue for which hydrologic process studies are needed • Agree to gather and openly share baseline physical and relevant socio-economic-legal data within the network • Commit to providing adequate and sustained local capacity to further the programme • Benefits of inclusion are: • Access to new data acquisition and analysis methods • Sharing of expertise • Access to data from other HELP catchments • Opportunities for funding and capacity building

22. HELP: Initial Activities • United Kingdom Lowland Catchment Research (LOWCAR) and Catchment Hydrology and Sustainable Management (CHASM) catchments • Japan Yasu River basin (HELP steering committee established and project planning started) • Germany: Global change of the water cycle (GLOWA) catchment on the Danube with federal government funding • International Water Management Institute (Sri Lanka) Existing water resource management catchments in Turkey, Asia and Africa • Other?

23. HELP: Relationships • International Hydrology Programme (IHP-VI) e.g. FRIEND Expand river flow understanding to the entire catchment water balance, including studies of water quality and social issues • World Water Vision and Global Water Partnership: HELP is a deliver mechanism for the “Framework for Action” • WCRP (e.g. GEWEX and CLIVAR) HELP will provide long-term, global, ground-based measurements to test large scale models and remote sensing techniques • IGBP: Interaction through initiatives,“Water Cycle”, “Food and Fiber”: • GTOS/WYCOS: Opportunities to interact constructively in global data collection

24. Water and Water and Water Quality Water and Water and Climate Food and Health Environment Conflict HELP: Policy Issues Global-HELP: Global Science Programs WCRP IGBP BAHC GCTE GEWEX CLIVAR

25. Global-HELP: WCRP Programs WCRP • COLLABORATING • MECHANISMS • JOINT RESEARCH • WCRP Focus: • new understanding and predictive products HELP Focus: their potential use in catchment systems • Exchange of Data • Joint Scientific Meetings 4. Capacity Building in Developing Countries GEWEX CLIVAR Water and Climate HELP: Policy Issue

26. Global-HELP: WCRP Programs

27. Global-HELP: GEWEX Global Data Radiation Water Vapor Precipitation

28. Global-HELP: GEWEX CSEs HELP/GEWEX Catchments Rainfall departures for Nov 1997- April 1998 “By 2005, to demonstrate predictability in water resources on time scales of seasonal to annual”

29. Global-HELP: Extending Predictability HELP Catchments HELP/GEWEX Catchments

30. Global-HELP: GEWEX/CLIVAR Modeling GEWEX and CLIVAR: Multi-member ensemble runs of high resolution, global, coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models HELP: Calibration of these mesoscale predictions against catchment-specific climatology

31. Global-HELP: CLIVAR Linkage • ·CLIVAR-GOALS • will develop new, predictable, oceanic “indexes” • with statistical links to the hydrological variables • in individual HELP catchments that can be used • to benefit water management • CLIVAR-DecCen will provide documentation and understanding of longer-term climatic variations in individual HELP catchments that can be used to refine the design criteria for water systems • CLIVAR-ACC will provide more credible and accurate predictions of long-term anthropogenic change in the climate system in individual HELP catchments that can be used to assess the vulnerability of current or proposed water systems