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UFORE

UFORE. Overview and Process. Overview & Process I. What is UFORE? Science-based computer model that quantifies urban forest structure, functions, and values Collection of analysis tools More at www.ufore.org Specialized analysis for urban ecosystems. Overview & Process. Ecosystem

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UFORE

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  1. UFORE Overview and Process

  2. Overview & Process I • What is UFORE? • Science-based computer model that quantifies urban forest structure, functions, and values • Collection of analysis tools • More at www.ufore.org • Specialized analysis for urban ecosystems

  3. Overview & Process • Ecosystem • “Functional units of interacting abiotic, biotic, and cultural (anthropogenic) components” • Includes all trees • Public/private • Native/exotic/”utopian” • No management of individuals, but we can and--many believe--must manage the population • Population contributes to common good at much reduced cost/benefit ratio than street trees

  4. Overview & Process • Status of UFORE • Fully operational as program • Over 10 years in development • FS Syracuse: running in SAS code • Direction: David Nowak, Project Leader • Programmer: Dan Crane • Being converted to desktop app (Windows) • Conversion work occupy next few years • Major advance for i-Tree • UFORE shell: makes projects much easier

  5. Overview & Process • Calculates • Structure, e.g. • Leaf area and biomass • Species and DBH distribution • Function, e.g. • VOC emissions • Pollution removal • Effect on building energy use • Total carbon stored • Value based on structure, function

  6. 1 metric ton (“tonne”) = 1.10231131 US (short) ton

  7. Sounds like STRATUM… • Similarities • Similar questions • Structure, function, value • Implications for management • Similar goals • Differences • Different populations • STRATUM: street trees • UFORE: whole ecosystem • Some differences in methods,often b/c of differing populations

  8. Overview & Process • What good is it? • Aid planning and management • Improve forest designs • Project future impacts • Assess impact of catastrophic events • Justify programs

  9. Source: http://www.houstonregionalforest.org/Report/

  10. Overview & Process • How does it work? • Uses field data to calculate structure • Uses structure data to calculate function • Uses function data to calculate value • Uses value data to draw conclusions and make recommendations • The Devil lurks, as always, in the details

  11. Does this help? (Not!)

  12. ?????????

  13. 3 questions • Ask when evaluating models: • Do I understand the numbers? • Can I trust the numbers? • Can I use the numbers? • I want to drill down one level in an effort to answer these questions, “peek under the hood”

  14. Overview & Process VI • Let’s examine one relatively *simple* set of calculations: CARBON • Start with allometric¹ equations estimating above-ground biomass from species and DBH ¹ = relation of the growth of a part of an organism to the growth of the whole • Convert with species-specific factor: above-ground biomass  whole tree biomass

  15. Regression of DBH as predictor of biomass http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/ncas/reports/pubs/tr05afinal.pdf

  16. Overview & Process VI • Adjustments • 80% less biomass for open-grown urban trees than computed • Based on field measurements of 30 urban trees in Chicago • Nowak 1994 publication (Chicago study) • How much of biomass is carbon? • Stored C biomass x 0.5 • Chow and Rolfe 1989, et al

  17. Is this too MUCH??!! http://tell.fll.purdue.edu/JapanProj/FLClipart/Adjectives/heavy.gif

  18. Overview & Process VI • Use growth and mortality rates for annual • Start with published and/or field data for each species and DBH class • Adjust growth (C storage) for • Site (e.g., park 1.78 times less growth than street) • Growing season length • Condition of tree • Adjust mortality (C release) for • % of condition class • Rapid release (above ground, populated areas) • Slow release (below ground, unpopulated areas) • Growth - Mortality  net annual C storage

  19. Overview & Process VI • Value • Multiply net annual stored C by $20.30/tC • Based on the estimated marginal social costs of carbon dioxide emissions (Fankhauser, 1994). • Stochastic model treats uncertainties in global warming research/debate as random variables. • Provides a distribution of outcomes from which means can be calculated. • This dollar amount was projection for 2000. • “Rough order-of-magnitude assessment”

  20. http://coreacademy.usu.edu/04_Materials/Clip_Art/

  21. What’s the point?! • We can begin to understand and therefore trust the numbers • Because of that, we can use the numbers • Advocacy • Strategic planning • Action • UFORE, like STRATUM, is a powerful tool for promoting sustainable management of urban forest resource.

  22. U4 Areme?

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