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PWG Update Report By Ernie Podraza of Direct Energy ERCOT PWG Chair Ed Echols Of Oncor

PWG Update Report By Ernie Podraza of Direct Energy ERCOT PWG Chair Ed Echols Of Oncor ERCOT PWG Vice Chair for COPS Meeting July 13, 2010. Annual Validation Estimate of 2010 Migrations. Round 2 Sample (Goal 8). TDSPs completed data collection through December 2009

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PWG Update Report By Ernie Podraza of Direct Energy ERCOT PWG Chair Ed Echols Of Oncor

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  1. PWG Update Report By Ernie Podraza of Direct Energy ERCOT PWG Chair Ed Echols Of Oncor ERCOT PWG Vice Chair for COPS Meeting July 13, 2010

  2. Annual Validation Estimate of 2010 Migrations

  3. Round 2 Sample (Goal 8) • TDSPs completed data collection through December 2009 • Preliminary slides of sample vs. current profiles shown at the 3/24 PWG Mtg. http://www.ercot.com/calendar/2010/03/20100324-PWG • Data collection period for the LRS Round 2 sample is over, and that TDSPs can cease submitting LRS data to ERCOT. • Comparison of round 2 sample vs. current profiles shown at 5/26 PWG Mtg. http://www.ercot.com/calendar/2010/05/20100526-PWG • Comparison of round 2 sample vs. current profiles shown at 6/24 PWG Mtg. http://www.ercot.com/calendar/2010/05/20100624-PWG • April 2011 target new Load Profile Model implementation; Timeline on hold until more analysis by ERCOT staff can demonstrate significant benefit from implementing round 2 models. Anticipate several months of work for ERCOT evaluation of some round 2 models with current coefficients refreshed vs. current profile models. The PWG wants to see the performance of current profiles vs. round 2 sample before recommending new profile models or just keep current models in lieu of the AMS implementation. Further analysis is pending email poll. • The PWG via email is polling the members for feedback.

  4. Summary Sample vs. Current Profiles • The average MAPE for the 2008-2009 4CP days (6.7%) is less than the MAPE for the study period (8.5%) because the current models were designed and perform best during summer high-load days. • Profiling error is a significant part of UFE so it is expected that the average MAPE for selected 2009 high UFE days (9.3%) would be greater than MAPE for the study period (8.5%). • http://www.ercot.com/calendar/2010/05/20100624-PWG

  5. Summary Sample vs. Current ProfilesBest Case Revised Timeline as of 6/24/2010

  6. LPGRR and PRR Status • Draft for Annual Validation suspension for AMS has been discussed and is a work in progress. Consensus that AMS premises should not be subject to the same annual validation of Profile Type as NIDR premises. (Goal 3)PWG submitted LPGRR language. • Draft LPGRR that takes the LRS TDSP CSV Operations Guide and makes it Appendix A of the Load Profiling Guide (LPG). PWG submitted LPGRR language. • LPGRR038 Revisions for Texas Nodal Market Implementation and Synchronization with PRR821, Update of Section 21, Process for Protocol Revision. IA and Recommendation Report to be reviewed at the next PWG meeting and then to COPS in August. • LPGRR039 Revisions for Texas Nodal Market Implementation Part Two. IA and Recommendation Report to be reviewed at the next PWG meeting and then to COPS in August. • Goal 6 – Draft LPGRR language per NPRR208, Registration and Settlement of Distributed Generation (DG) Less Than One MW. NPRR remanded by the ERCOT Board to the TAC. On June 3, 2010 TAC remanded to COPS. COPS filed Comments 06/11. ERCOT filed Comments 6/24. See additional presentation on the PWG discussions on 5/25/2010. TAC meets 7/1.

  7. PWG 2010 meeting dates - 4th Wednesday of the month Unless there are new topics the July meeting may be a half day morning conference call.

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