1 / 16

Economic Impacts of the Border on Transportation

Economic Impacts of the Border on Transportation. Transportation leadership you can trust. Study Update. presented to Canada/U.S. Transportation Border Working Group presented by Stephen Fitzroy & Brian Alstadt, Economic Development Research Group Andreas Aeppli, Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

meara
Download Presentation

Economic Impacts of the Border on Transportation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Economic Impacts of the Border on Transportation Transportation leadership you can trust. Study Update presented to Canada/U.S. Transportation Border Working Group presented byStephen Fitzroy & Brian Alstadt, Economic Development Research Group Andreas Aeppli, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. November 19, 2008

  2. Presentation Overview • Project Summary • Task 4 – Analysis/Methodological Concept • Remaining & next steps

  3. Overview of Project • Main objective is to determine the economic consequences of delay at the US/Canada border, including: • impacts at specific border facilities or regions • macroeconomic effects for entire border • impacts of policy alternatives • Some key questions: • What are the impacts of freight versus passenger delay? • What commodities/industries are affected most? • How does the transport sector respond? • What role does reliability play?

  4. Review of Study Tasks • Task 1: Work Plan • Identify data sources • Technical Approach & Detailed Work Plan (Technical Memo #1) • Task 2: Overview of Transborder Trade Data • Collect data and identify trends • Technical Memo #2 • Task 3: Literature Review • Summarize relevant work • Identify benefits and limitations of applied methodologies • Technical Memo #3

  5. Review of Study Tasks - Continued • Task 4: Develop Analytic Methodology • Present logic • Compare to methods from literature review • Discuss data requirements • Draft Technical Memo #4 to be distributed shortly • Task 4-D: Define Select Sample Scenarios • Three impact scenarios that could be used to validate model • We need your input! • Differentiate between low, medium and high delay scenarios for each of the four border regions • Results incorporated into final version of Technical Memo #4 • Task 5: Summary Report

  6. Summary of Literature Review • Most relevant studies: • HDR|HLB (2006) – San Diego/Baja Border • Taylor et al. (2003) – US/Canada Border • DAMF (2005) – US/Canada Border (impacts to trucking firms) • Two broad approaches: • macroeconomic – measure supply and demand elasticities of response to time delay • microeconomic – measure costs at vehicle-level, determine how costs “flow” through economy • Room for improvement: • “delay” is not the only cost of crossing border • address travel time variability • add commodity dimension • recognize multiple freight carrier types

  7. Key Considerations for Methodology • Many types of costs • travel time and variability • operating costs (fuel, capital, maintenance, labor, etc.) • administrative costs • Costs affect many economic players • passenger (commute, leisure, on-the-clock) • freight carriers (own-account, for-hire, common carriers) • freight shippers (bulk, mixed freight, small package, JIT firms) • Many possible responses to costs • Vehicle: mode/ route/ time-of-day • Firm: inventory management/ production technology/ site location • Household: tourism, employment, residential location • Data

  8. Analyzing Border Delays Overview of analytic approach Scenarios: • Changes in fees or charges • Change in processing time • Change in inspection policy • Change in hrs of operation • Change in security procedures Change in user costs by vehicle Facility Capacity Response: • Change in processing time • Change in idle time • Change in reliability • Change in tolls Demand Response: • Change in crossing demand by trip purpose • Change in vehicle/freight mix • Change in crossing location • Change in crossing time of day

  9. Overview of Methodology Methodology blends micro- and macro- approaches Veh. Costs: • Trucks • Cars Vehicle Users: • Households • Industry (pass.) • Freight shippers • Freight carriers macroeconomic elements Users’ Responses: • Travel demand • Traveler spending • Carrier response • Shipper response Regional Impacts: • Employment • Output • Value Added • Wages microeconomic elements

  10. Detailed Methodology

  11. Implications • Addresses limitations of surveyed approaches • Vehicle based • Incorporates industry and macroeconomic responses • Includes travel time variability • Recognizes different truck carrier types • Impacts revealed at industry level • Additional features • Benefit/Cost analysis • Challenges • Appropriate data • Demand responses to cost changes

  12. Sample Application: Single Border Crossing • Hypothetical Scenario: • Assess economic impacts of expanding usage of FAST or NEXUS programs • Data • Passenger travel – survey based, for example 2007 IMTC Cascade Gateway Passenger Intercept Survey • Freight travel – public sources • Economic forecasts • Model Setup • Establish “baseline” and “policy” scenarios • Determine capacity effects of scenarios (changes in wait times) • Estimate any applicable program fees • Enter changes in delay and program fees • Results • Direct benefits by trip type, “user” type, industry, and region • Macroeconomic impacts by industry • Benefit/cost ratios

  13. Next Steps • Wrap-up “Phase I” study • Complete Task 4 – Analysis/Methodological Concept • Delivery of draft Tech Memo to TBWG by end of November • Final Tech memo with Task 4D scenarios by mid-December • Comments back by January 15, 2009 • Task 5 – Summary Report • Complete in February, 2009 • Optional Phase II – Test Model • Determine Identify critical policy issues to evaluate • Determine proper scale of analysis • Identify information requirements

  14. The End

  15. Cost Savings by Vehicle

  16. User Responses to Cost Savings

More Related