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Proposition 8

Proposition 8. April 2008 : Nearly 1.1 million signatures delivered to CA Secretary of State May 15, 2008 : CA Supreme Court issues In Re Marriage Cases decision June 2, 2008 : Proposition 8 certified for November 4, 2008 ballot June 15, 2008 : same-sex couples start marrying in California.

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Proposition 8

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  1. Proposition 8 • April 2008: Nearly 1.1 million signatures delivered to CA Secretary of State • May 15, 2008: CA Supreme Court issues In Re Marriage Cases decision • June 2, 2008: Proposition 8 certified for November 4, 2008 ballot • June 15, 2008: same-sex couples start marrying in California

  2. Proposition 8: The Media War • August 2008: Let California Ring airs “Tripping Bride” ad constantly during Beijing Olympics TV coverage • September 2008: Let California Ring print and radio ads run in ethnic media outlets until the end of the month • September 22 2008: First NO ON 8 ad airs: “Don’t Eliminate Marriage For Anyone” • September 29 2008: First YES on 8 ad airs “Whether You Like It Or Not” • October 7 2008: Yes on 8 airs “Princes” ad • October 22 2008: No on 8 airs response to “Princes” ad • October 23 2008: Yes on 8 responds with “Truth” • October 30 2008: No on 8 ends the campaign with “Divisive” and “Discrimination”

  3. Proposition 8 Aftermath • Certified Election Results on Proposition 8 • Statewide • YES 7,001,084 (52.30%) • NO 6,401,482 (47.70%) • Margin: 599,602 (4.6%) • Voter Turnout: 13,743,177 out of 17,304,091 (79.42%) • Los Angeles County • YES 1,624,672 (50.04%) • NO 1,622,287 (49.96%) • Margin: 2,385 • Turnout: 3,246,959 out of 4,111,642 (79%)

  4. Black vs. Gay: Proposition 8 Aftermath • CNN Exit Poll Released showed that 70% of African Americans voted in favor of Proposition 8 (later revised down to 57-58% by an academic analysis) • Media narrative became Blacks versus Gays • Between Nov. 4-Nov 18 I appeared in • The Los Angeles Times • Good Morning America (Sunday) • KABC-TV • Local radio stations (KCRW-FM, KPFK-FM)

  5. Why Gay is NOT ‘the new Black’ • There are people who are both Black and Gay • Although both communities have experienced identity-based discrimination, slavery (and its incidents) is simply not equivalent to what LGBT have experienced • The phrase and the comparison trivializes both the experience of Black people and LGBT people in this country • To paraphrase Dan Savage, the gay rights movement is a civil rights movement but the movement for racial equality is the Civil Rights Movement.

  6. The Future!? • Blogger Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) has looked at the 30 states that have voted to amend their constitution and done a regression analysis which shows that the most important factors are 1. The year in which the amendment was voted upon; 2. The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives; 3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state. • When extrapolated into the future it shows the year in which a similar vote to ban gay marriage would fail in each state

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