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Improving Intra-Hour Wind Forecast Accuracy: Updates and Analysis (April 2019)

This report provides updates and analysis on the accuracy of intra-hour wind forecasts for April 2019. It includes historical K-factor tuning events and changes in parameters, such as PWRR Max/Min Thresholds and ACE Feedback. The projected wind ramp rate error and persistence ramp are also discussed.

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Improving Intra-Hour Wind Forecast Accuracy: Updates and Analysis (April 2019)

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  1. Intra-Hour Wind Forecast Accuracy Updates (Apr. 2019) WMWG Operations Analysis April 22, 2019

  2. Current GTBD Parameters Historical K factor tuning events: 12/4/18 10:05 AM – K6 Changed from 0 to 0.5 2/12/19 2:15 PM – K6 changed from 0.5 to 1.0 3/12/19 2:10 PM – PWRR Max/Min Threshold from 10 MW/min to 15 MW/min 3/19/19 2:15 PM – PWRR Max/Min Threshold from 15 MW/min to 20 MW/min 4/01/19 10:05 AM – K5 changed from 0.5 to 0.4 and Max. Integral ACE Feedback changed from 250 to 150

  3. Projected Wind Ramp Rate (PWRR) Error * Persistence Ramp assumes using a 0 MW wind ramp in PWRR

  4. AppendixThe following slides were presented at March PDCWG

  5. Intra-Hour Wind Ramp Forecast Error (March 2019)

  6. Intra-Hour Wind Ramp Forecast Error (March 2019)

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