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CRITFC Information System for Modeling Climate Change Impacts

The CRITFC Information System (CIS) is a tribal tool for modeling different operating scenarios of the Columbia River System under climate change. CIS aims to continuously develop robust ecosystem data and collaborate effectively with Federal Agencies. It utilizes new software and modeling focus to enhance efficiency and total-system modeling.

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CRITFC Information System for Modeling Climate Change Impacts

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  1. PROJECT : Climate Change Impacts • CRITFC Information System and Hydsim Modeling • Goals: The CRITFC Information System (CIS) is the tribal tool for modeling multiple scenarios of Columbia River System operations under climate change. The goals of CIS are the following: • to continuously develop robust ecosystem data on key indicators for salmon survival by modeling different operating scenarios of the Columbia River System using historical hydrology as well as Climate Change streamflow projections. • (Note: To “continuously develop robust ecosystem data” means performing ecosystems • modeling computations corresponding to all Hydsim study scenarios evaluated for • collaboration with Federal agencies. ) • To achieve efficiency in performing modeling runs by the limited tribal staff • to collaborate effectively with Federal Agencies on evaluating different operating scenarios for the Columbia River System.

  2. CIS TECHNICAL OBJECTIVES • New software: new modeling platform, graphics on-demand, data management. Independent from Hydsim. But retains the “kernel hydraulic functions” to be able to replicate BPA studies. • New philosophy: Centered on efficiency and total-system approach in modeling. Total system awareness involves modeling all facets of the Columbia River System. Not just hydraulics in Hydsim but also flood control, water temperature, fish survival, etc. • New modeling focus: CRITFC modelers can focus on navigating thru the GUIs. Make it easy to learn the modeling functions in CIS. To the extent possible and practical for software development, simplify modeling effort to point-and-click, such as to run Hydsim and deliver information. For example, the GUI shown below allows only one mouse click to run all modeling steps for 14-period and Daily Hydsim using a Climate Change flows scenarfio, without multiple browsing, without modeler intervention from start to finish. CIS also automatically deposits the study results in the data base. All data movement and linking handled by CIS, error-free.

  3. How CIS is fulfilling goals for robust data? How is speed in analysis gained from CIS interactive graphics? • The graphs compare current conditions scenario with a tribal ecosystem scenario. • Modeler can click one particular graph to show it on full screen • Single or multiple graphs on-screen are based on modeler’s choice of the following: • water years, or summary of water year group such as low water years in Q1 group • Climate Change streamflow scenario among 20 culled scenarios or all 80 to 160 scenarios • Which operating scenario to compare, such as those scenarios discussed during Columbia River Treaty Collaborations • Which hydro project, such as The Dalles • The graphs below show data such as power generation to compare power gains and losses between scenarios, or the relationship between outflows and water particle travel time. • TARGET CIS CAPABILITY: Include Temperature or Salmon Survival Index in the display of multiple graphs.

  4. SUMMARY: CIS design components: • Data bases • Modeling software: BPA Hydsim, Climate Change processor, Automated Metrics, Interactive Graphics • Data management software • Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) for modeler to control all other CIS components INPUT DATA BASE MODELING SOFTWARE OUTPUT DATA BASE DATA MANAGEMENT AND GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACES Graphics, Information on-screen

  5. CIS DETAILED DESIGN COMPOINENTS (ARCHITECTURE) MODELING SOFTWARE INPUT DATA BASE OUTPUT DATA BASE • 1. Streamflow basis of simulation studies: • Official BPA Historical Modified Flows • 1929-2010 water years • Multiple scenarios of Climate Change • 1950-2099 water years • Climate Change Flow processor • BPA 14-period Hydsim • Study Scenario Library Processor • Ecosystem Rule Curve Processor • BPA Daily Modulator • CIS Daily Hydsim • Quick View, Compare Scenarios • Error analysis, QA/QC • Software class: reservoir balancing • Temperature Model * • NOAA Compass Model * • Automated Metrics, including scoring of salmon survival * • Daily and 14-period data • Hydro project outflows • Reservoir elevations • Power generation • Total Spill and components • Water particle travel time • Temperature * • fish survival index * • Multiple scenarios operating specs: • power rule curves or objectives • Flood control rule curves • BiOP flows, spill, reservoir requirements • Ecosystem rule curves • Others: drum gate maintenance, etc. DATA MANAGEMENT And GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACES INFORMATION on-demand Run Hydsim study Cull Climate Change Scenarios Show data in comparative graphics Run fish survival study * Show data in Excel modeler controls data bases, software, GUI, queries to produce information on-demand * Future capability

  6. How is modeling efficiency achieved in CIS ? • Efficient modeling simulations: • Simulate multiple operating scenarios and climate change projections • CIS software control of every stage of a modeling run from initial input to final output without modeler intervention • Quick turnaround for each simulation run • User Manuals accessible within the CIS GUIs • Data Management • Control of data on modeling studies of multiple operating scenarios and Climate Change streamflow scenarios • There had been 10-15 operating scenarios evaluated during Columbia River Treaty collaborations. If some of these operating scenarios are to be modeled using multiple Climate Change streamflow scenarios, the total number of studies will still be manageable within CIS and for the tribal modelers. • There is no limit, other than computer storage space, to the number of modeling studies that CIS can handle • Control of sharing and movement of data across software applications • Error free data management, instead of error-prone manual handling of data • Results of all simulated operating scenarios are stored in data bases automatically at the end of each modeling run • Modeling results are queried via modeler specifications of query parameters on GUI screen • Efficiency in delivery of modeling results to collaboration: • CIS can be run and re-run on-demand during collaboration sessions • Modeling runs and delivery of data on-screen can be performed live before collaboration participants • Interactive on-screen graphics and Excel can be used to present scenario results • CIS Interactive graphics is not limited by the number study scenarios that CIS can query. All studies in CIS data base are available to be queried and selected for graphics. The limit is on number of scenarios that can be shown clearly on screen • Automated Metrics software provides comparison of multiple scenarios versus user-defined metrics on-the-fly

  7. Details of CIS Software Components and Modeling Platform • Data bases • Microsoft Access data base is used for scenario data management triggers • Results from 14-period Hydsim and Daily Hydsim simulations of operating scenarios are stored in binary files • Binary files serve as data bases. • To save time, CIS does not upload Hydsim binary files into ActiveX Data Objects (ADO) data bases • CIS is able to query binary files and transmit the queried data directly to graphics or Excel • Software functions • Functions are programmed modeling steps that are triggered to launch by mouse click on GUI • Software functions include: BPA 14-period Hydsim, CIS Daily Hydsim, CIS Climate Change Flows scenarios processor, CIS Automatic Metrics. Proposed: NOAA Compass and Temperature Model • Graphical User Interface (GUI) • Microsoft Access screen objects and VBA language are used to develop GUIs. Easiest transition for modelers who are accustomed to using Excel and macros in their own GUIs • GUIs provide on-screen choices of what scenario to run, which software function to launch, and what parameters and drivers to submit to the software function • On-screen choices of what scenarios and data to display in comparative graphics • Specific data management functions are also triggered to launch from the GUI by modeler’s mouse clicks

  8. EXAMPLE OF GUI: • Graphics Server • for Interactive analysis of Hydsim studies • Top GUI: Define graphing options: • units of measure, graphing options for water year and scenarios, and the water years selections. • Middle GUI: “Show Graphs” • When clicked, the 14-period and daily graphs show on-screen. • Bottom GUI: Displays requested graphs • As requested by the GUI, the Grand Coulee graph shows ending elevations for each scenario. The white line for flood control curve is overlayed. • The graph for US-Canada Border Outflow compares the outflows produced by the two scenarios desired by the modeler to be analyzed. Also shows the overlayed yellow line for the natural hydrograph. • The graph for the Dalles also shows the outflows and the overlayed yellow line for the natural hydrograph.

  9. Example of GUI: Five tools for Culling Climate Change streamflow scenarios • Purpose is to limit Hydsim Climate Change studies to only 20 scenarios. • In this GUI, tool#1 is invoked • Cull by composite (average) ranking of multiple seasonal streamflow volumes observed at one chosen project site such as The Dalles. • Percentiles on GUI screen are selected to be able to show percentile ranking by each streamflow volume in a separate display

  10. CIS Graphics enhancements (continuing progress): Improvements on the Graphical User Interface (GUI). • Daily graphs mixed with 14-period graphs on-screen, without degrading the speed of data retrieval. This GUI, after selecting #4 and #78 which are the first and last Climate Change scenarios culled by BPA, produces the three combined graphs for analysis

  11. What are manual modeling functions programmed in CIS to achieve modeling efficiency? • Analysis and editing of input txt data: On-demand display of data when triggered by the modeler on the GUI. Then work of editing the data is “localized” on the data file and the scenario to which it belongs. • Delivery of data files into multiple stages of a modeling run: The right data sets and modeling specifications are ensured to move across multiple software stages such as Hydsim steps without modeler intervention. • Automated metrics to evaluate multiple study scenarios. The usual metrics for outflows and reservoir elevations are specified to CIS. Then CIS computes the score per water year. This replaces the usual practice of building spreadsheets to do the scoring. In progress: perform metrics on CIS Hydsim studies using Climate Change flow scenarios • Scenario management. Organize the collection of input data and output study results among study scenarios to maintain data integrity. Each scenario and its files reside in its own “subfolder”. Scenario subfolders which are the collection of scenarios reside in one “library folder”. No limit to scenario subfolders and library folders. • Delivery of data files to graphics and analysis software: Ensure that data set from the desired scenarios, especially Climate Change scenarios, are extracted and presented fast and error-free to the modeler for analysis by graphics, Excel, etc. • Modeling runs: It is not an immense effort to run or re-run a Hydsim study in CIS. After data revisions are completed by the modeler via the GUI, then Hydsim and other modeling applications are launched via mouse clicks on the GUI. Hydsim runs without modeler intervention. Results are automatically updated into the scenario domain.

  12. What are key software changes to Hydsim that enabled CIS to control Hydsim steps and functions? • 14 Period Hydsim: same as BPA Hydsim, but modified to run Programs HYBLD and HYMOD in succession with HYDSIM as “HYDSIM STEPS” without modeler intervention. • Daily Hydsim: The software logic is the same as in 14-period Hydsim, except that the modeling time steps are daily. The purpose of Daily Hydsim is to produce daily regulated flows and elevations which are to be used for computing water particle travel time, river temperature, and fish survival indices. It runs for 70, 80, 90, etc water years and serves as replacement to BPA’s Daily Modulator which runs only in 70 water year mode. • Extract MF: This software extracts the plant and period files and all Hydsim input data from the Master File that is shared by BPA to CRITFC. • Hydsim run-control: The “parameter” that is created from CIS GUI is delivered to Hydsim run-control software. This parameter is used to direct Hydsim to run: • the usual 14-period modeling, • Daily Hydsim • extract detailed files from a BPA Master binary file • whether to run Hydsim in Modified Flows 2000 mode or Climate Change mode using a Climate Change streamflow scenario. In Climate Change mode, CIS ads irrigation data to the original CMIP5 flows scenario. For years 2009-2099 without irrigation data, CIS interpolates and infers the irrigation data from 1929-2008 water years. • Hydsim Daily Bin: Consists of the following software components whose documentations are embedded in the software code. Same style of documentation as in BPA Hydsim: • Convert Climate Change flows scenarios data into Daily binary files to facilitate graphics and Hydsim Climate Change runs. • Extract Climate Change flows scenarios for “culling” • Extract 14-period Hydsim binary files for 14-period graphics • Extract daily Hydsim binary files for daily graphics • Perform metrics scoring for multiple scenarios, projects, metrics specifications

  13. CIS enhancements • Automated metrics: To compute multiple scenario’s score on metrics per water year, project, and scenario is the equivalent of building thousands of spreadsheets manually. Example during Columbia River Treaty collaborations: for 15 scenarios, 10 projects, 20 metrics per project entails building 3000 spreadsheets. In CIS, no limit to scenarios, projects, metrics. • New Metrics to be developed after 2019: Develop software for “Automated Metrics” for scoring of the water year by water year performance of each study scenario on salmon survival indicators – River Temperature, Survival index, etc. • Enhance graphics software to show multiple water years per Climate Change streamflow scenario. This enables modeler to see the water year by water year profile of streamflows in a scenario before using such scenario in a Hydsim modeling study • Automatic computation of data: Instead of hand-regulating data for input to Hydsim. CIS has “software classes” such as reservoir balancing to handle different instances of hand regulations. • Eliminates manual computations and modeler intervention at different stages of a Hydsim modeling ru. For the following modeling needs, data are computed internally, to eliminate manual computations. • Vernita Bar flow requirement • Fulfill delivery of BiOP flow augmentation volumes from US-Canada Border • Fulfill mid-Arrow elevations and flow requirements from Mica and Arrow in a Mid-Arrow scenario that uses (1) Mica ERC, or (2) AOP 22 Mica elevations • Elevations for refill of Arrow above mid-Arrow elevation 1420 that are triggered and defined by volume forecast, when using Official Modified Flows or Climate Change flows scenarios • BiOP flow requirements at Lower Granite and McNary, based on volume forecasts, • when using Official Modified Flows or Climate Change scenarios for a CIS-Hydsim study scenario

  14. Climate Change studies (work in progress): • Made preliminary Hydsim runs using some select Climate Change flows scenarios, but limited to traditional • water years 1929-2008. • Work-in-progress on recalibrating CIS-Hydsim to run water years 1951-2099 with Climate Change scenarios, • and be able to produce graphs that compare Modified Flows 2010 scenario that spans only • water years 1929-2008. ON HOLD. Not sure how BPA will resolve this dilemma. • CIS enhancement (Compute Flood Control Curves specific to a study): • Work-in-progress on specifications for flood control software. ON HOLD. Need collaboration with • Corps of Engineers

  15. Climate Change Hydsim studies (average of 1951-98) Tribal Scenario 4E80-C under Modified Flows 2010 and Climate Change high & medium yrs Current Condition RCC80-17 under Modified Flows 2010 and Climate Change high & medium yrs

  16. Annual Report 2018: Climate Change Project (Accomplishments for CIS DATA BASE) A. Purpose of CIS The CRITFC Information System (CIS) is the tribal modeling platform. Its purpose is to efficiently simulate alternative operating scenarios of the Columbia River system. CIS provides the tribes with modeling efficiency in terms of data management and information management. Modeling in CIS is with the benefit of quick turnaround for input output validation, and for Hydsim modeling runs and re-runs. Data bases and software controls in CIS enable the modeler to efficiently perform evaluation of ecosystem impacts of hydro-system operations under Climate Change or the Columbia River Treaty. Data Management information on-demand, on-screen OUTPUT DATA: Multiple study scenario results INPUT DATA: Drivers of hydro-system performance • Daily and 14-period data • Hydro project outflows • Reservoir elevations • Power generation • Spill • Water particle travel time • Temperature, fish survival index • Flood risk at The Dalles or • or any project site in the System • 1. Streamflow basis of simulation studies: • Official BPA Historical Modified Flows • Multiple scenarios of Climate Change • Multiple scenarios operating specs: • power rule curves or objectives • Flood control rule curves • BiOP flows, spill, reservoir requirements • Ecosystem rule curves • Others: drum gate maintenance, etc.

  17. How is efficiency achieved in CIS? Efficiency is achieved through data bases, software functions, and Graphical User Interface. The modeler is relieved of the burdens of handling data, running every modeling step, and remembering all of these details. Hence, the modeler is able to focus on modeling specifications and validation of results through comparative graphics. Data bases are a a combination of: (1) a small, easy to build and understand Microsoft Access data base for scenario management and (2) binary files for results produced from Hydsim runs. Binary files are also easy to understand because they are well documented by BPA inside Hydsim. Software functions are programmed modeling steps also known as “events”. In CIS, they are used by the modeler as a collection of “expert systems” because they memorialize the manual modeling steps, and are performed flawlessly every time they are launched by the GUI. There is no immediate software issue if there are changes in modeling functions. These functions have not changed for decades. VBA is easy to understand, revise, maintain. Modelers who work with Excel macros typically understand VBA. Graphical User Interface (GUI) is a collection of specially designed Microsoft Access screen forms. The software functions that are triggered in the GUI by mouse clicks are programmed in VBA. The GUI responds by launching the sequence of modeling functions quickly and flawlessly.

  18. Summary of efficiency benefits from CIS: Modeling efficiency is achieved when the modeler need not be mindful nor falter with detailed work steps where some typical modeling errors happen. These work steps are already automated in CIS. The right data to process and validate are also made available on-screen quickly and selectively. No time consuming search for the needed data. The CIS query system delivers a combination of graphics, data transported on-demand into Excel, and native data displayed in its txt format on-demand. This new discipline in analyzing data enable the modeler to wade through any class of data without the burden of surfing through all data to find what he wants. Besides, manual surfing and scrolling thru the entire set of data does not readily provide the ability to consolidate and summarize data.

  19. C. What are manual modeling functions programmed in CIS to achieve modeling efficiency? • Analysis and editing of input txt data: On-demand display of data when triggered by the modeler on the GUI. Then work of editing the data is “localized” on the data file and the scenario to which it belongs. • Delivery of data files into multiple stages of a modeling run: The right data sets and modeling specifications are ensured to move across multiple software stages such as Hydsim steps without modeler intervention. • Automated metrics to evaluate multiple study scenarios. The usual metrics for outflows and reservoir elevations are specified to CIS. Then CIS computes the score per water year. This replaces the usual practice of building spreadsheets to do the scoring. • Scenario management. Organize the collection of input data and output study results among study scenarios to maintain data integrity. Each scenario and its files reside in its own “subfolder”. Scenario subfolders which are the collection of scenarios reside in one “library folder”. No limit to scenario subfolders and library folders. • Delivery of data files to graphics and analysis software: Ensure that data set from the desired scenarios, especially Climate Change scenarios, are extracted and presented fast and error-free to the modeler for analysis by graphics, Excel, etc. • Modeling runs: It is not an immense effort to run or re-run a Hydsim study in CIS. After data revisions are completed by the modeler via the GUI, then Hydsim and other modeling applications are launched via mouse clicks on the GUI. Hydsim runs without modeler intervention. Results are automatically updated into the scenario domain.

  20. D. What are key software changes to Hydsim that enabled CIS to control Hydsim steps and functions? • 14 Period Hydsim: same as BPA Hydsim, but modified to run Programs HYBLD and HYMOD in succession with HYDSIM as “HYDSIM STEPS” without modeler intervention. • Daily Hydsim: The software logic is the same as in 14-period Hydsim, except that the modeling time steps are daily. The purpose of Daily Hydsim is to produce daily regulated flows and elevations which are to be used for computing water particle travel time, river temperature, and fish survival indices. It runs for 70, 80, 90, etc water years and serves as replacement to BPA’s Daily Modulator which runs only in 70 water year mode. • Extract MF: This software extracts the plant and period files and all Hydsim input data from the Master File that is shared by BPA to CRITFC. • Hydsim run-control: The “parameter” that is created from CIS GUI is delivered to Hydsim run-control software. This parameter is used to direct Hydsim to run: • the usual 14-period modeling, • Daily Hydsim • extract detailed files from a BPA Master binary file • whether to run Hydsim in Modified Flows 2000 mode or Climate Change mode using a Climate Change streamflow scenario. In Climate Change mode, CIS ads irrigation data to the original CMIP5 flows scenario. For years 2009-2099 without irrigation data, CIS interpolates and infers the irrigation data from 1929-2008 water years. • Hydsim Daily Bin: Consists of the following software components whose documentations are embedded in the software code. Same style of documentation as in BPA Hydsim: • Convert Climate Change flows scenarios data into Daily binary files to facilitate graphics and Hydsim Climate Change runs. • Extract Climate Change flows scenarios for “culling” • Extract 14-period Hydsim binary files for 14-period graphics • Extract daily Hydsim binary files for daily graphics • Perform metrics scoring for multiple scenarios, projects, metrics specifications

  21. E. Solutions, Justification for CIS • New software: new modeling platform, graphics on-demand, data management. Independent from Hydsim. But retains the “kernel hydraulic functions” to be able to replicate BPA studies. • New philosophy: Centered on efficiency and total-system approach in modeling. Total system awareness involves modeling all facets of the Columbia River System. Not just hydraulics in Hydsim but also flood control, water temperature, fish survival, etc. • New modeling focus: CRITFC modelers can focus on navigating thru the GUIs. It is easy to learn what modeling functions in CIS to point-and-click, such as to run Hydsim and deliver information. For example, the GUI shown below allows only one mouse click to run all modeling steps for 14-period and Daily Hydsim using a Climate Change flows scenarfio, without multiple browsing, without modeler intervention from start to finish. CIS also automatically deposits the study results in the data base. All data movement and linking handled by CIS, error-free.

  22. F. New tools for Analysis • Top GUI: Enables modeler to define options: units of measure, graphing options for water year and scenarios, and the water years selections. • Middle GUI: has a button “Show Graphs”. When clicked, the 14-period and daily graphs show on-screen. • Bottom GUI: As requested by the GUI, the Grand Coulee graph shows ending elevations for each scenario. The white line for flood control curve is overlayed. • The graph for US-Canada Border Outflow compares the outflows produced by the two scenarios desired by the modeler to be analyzed. Also shows the overlayed yellow line for the natural hydrograph. • The graph for the Dalles also shows the outflows and the overlayed yellow line for the natural hydrograph.

  23. G. The solution: CIS Data Base and its Components (CIS Architecture) SOFTWARE APPLICATIONS INPUT DATA BASE OUTPUT DATA BASE • 1. Streamflow basis of simulation studies: • Official BPA Historical Modified Flows • 1929-2010 water years • Multiple scenarios of Climate Change • 1950-2099 water years Climate Change Flow processor CIS 14-period Hydsim Study Scenario Library Processor Ecosystem Rule Curve Processor BPA Daily Modulator CIS Daily Hydsim Quick View, Compare Scenarios Error analysis, QA/QC Software class: reservoir balancing CIS Flood Curve Module * CIS Temperature Module * CIS Fish Passage Survival Module * • Daily and 14-period data • Hydro project outflows • Reservoir elevations • Power generation • Spill • Water particle travel time • Temperature • fish survival index • Flood risk indicators • Multiple scenarios operating specs: • power rule curves or objectives • Flood control rule curves • BiOP flows, spill, reservoir requirements • Ecosystem rule curves • Others: drum gate maintenance, etc. GRAPHICAL USER INTERFACES and QUERIES INFORMATION on-demand Run Hydsim study Cull Climate Change Scenarios Show data in comparative graphics Run Flood Control study * Run fish survival study * Show data in Excel One modeler controls data bases, software, GUI, queries to produce information on-demand * Future application software written by CRITFC software developer

  24. H. Specific CIS enhancements developed in 2017 and 2018: • Automated metrics: To compute multiple scenario’s score on metrics per water year, project, and scenario is the equivalent of building thousands of spreadsheets manually. Example during Columbia River Treaty collaborations: for 15 scenarios, 10 projects, 20 metrics per project entails building 3000 spreadsheets. In CIS, no limit to scenarios, projects, metrics. • Automatic computation of data: Instead of hand-regulating data for input to Hydsim. CIS has “software classes” such as reservoir balancing to handle different instances of hand regulations. • Eliminates manual computations and modeler intervention at different stages of a Hydsim modeling run. • Vernita Bar flow requirement • Fulfill delivery of BiOP flow augmentation volumes from US-Canada Border • Fulfill mid-Arrow elevations and flow requirements from Mica and Arrow in a Mid-Arrow scenario that uses (1) Mica ERC, or (2) AOP 22 Mica elevations • Elevations for refill of Arrow above mid-Arrow elevation 1420 that are triggered and defined by volume forecast, when using Official Modified Flows or Climate Change flows scenarios • BiOP flow requirements at Lower Granite and McNary, based on volume forecasts, • when using Official Modified Flows or Climate Change scenarios for a CIS-Hydsim study scenario

  25. Data editing and launch a Hydsim modeling run: • - CIS-HYDSIM provides a GUI platform (see below) for maintaining its Excel spreadsheet inputs and • the traditional input data in 80-column txt format. • - Excel file opens for editing when file name is clicked. Txt file opens for editing when file name is clicked When this button is clicked, CIS opens the Culling Menu to enable the modeler to select and link a Climate Change scenario to this Hydsim run. The name of the scenario is recorded on white space below this button. When this button is clicked, CIS runs 14-period and daily modeling in one continuous process. The modeler waits for it to complete, then uses another GUI to produce graphs.

  26. CIS Graphics enhancements (continuing progress): Improvements on the Graphical User Interface (GUI). • Daily graphs mixed with 14-period graphs on-screen, without degrading the speed of data retrieval. This GUI, after selecting #4 and #78 which are the first and last Climate Change scenarios culled by BPA, produces the three combined graphs for analysis

  27. “CIS Climate Change enhancements: Culling” Climate Change flows scenarios. From BPA perspective, this is a process to select 20 from the 80+ available scenarios. BPA’s purpose is to limit Hydsim Climate Change studies to only 20 scenarios. In CIS, the first culling method examines percentiles of multiple seasonal streamflow volumes observed at one chosen project site such as The Dalles. This method is similar to the BPA method.

  28. Climate Change studies (work in progress): • Made preliminary Hydsim runs using some select Climate Change flows scenarios, but limited to traditional • water years 1928-2010. • Work-in-progress on recalibrating CIS-Hydsim to run water years 1951-2099 with Climate Change scenarios, • and be able to produce graphs that compare Modified Flows 2010 scenario that spans only • water years 1929-2008. • CIS enhancement (Compute Flood Control Curves specific to a study): • Work-in-progress on specifications for flood control software

  29. Overview: CIS Inputs, Processing Apps, Outputs • Daily Hydsim Objectives, Input Data Requirements • Running Daily Hydsim within CIS • Daily Hydsim dynamics, Summary: CIS Daily Hydsim software logic • Flowchart: SUMMARY Integration of CIS 14-period and Daily Hydsim • Flowchart: Prelude to Daily Hydsim: 14-period CIS HYDSIM Input Phase • Flowchart: Prelude to Daily Hydsim: 14-period CIS HYDSIM MODELING • Flowchart: Prelude to Daily Hydsim: One-time construct binary file of streamflow scenarios • DailyFlowsMaster.BIN and DailyOutputMASTER.BIN binary record specifications • Flowchart: CIS DAILY HYDSIM MODELING • Architecture: The New CIS GRAPHICS: Daily vs. 14-period • CIS GUI: select Climate Change flows, run 14-period and DAILY Hydsim

  30. SUMMARY: CIS Daily Hydsim • Daily Hydsim Objectives: • Regulate the hydro system to compute daily outflows, spill, water particle travel time • Expediently input these data to Ecosystem Models to compute fish survival • Determine impacts on survival of different flow and spill scenarios • Determine flood risks: # of times outflows exceed a threshold in 3-5 day span • Input Data Requirements: • 14-period ending elevations, flood control curves, spill, minimum flow requirements • These are stored in HydsimMaster File.BINof an Ecosystem Study Scenario • Straight line-Interpolate into Daily Target Elevations and Flood Control curves • Daily unregulated flows (Modified Flows, Climate Change flows) • Uploaded in binary file, DailyFlowsMASTER.BIN for efficient daily modeling

  31. Running Daily Hydsim within CIS • CIS 14-period and Daily Hydsim for each study scenario are launched within CIS GUI • Option to run 14-period and daily Hydsim in succession with one button-click • But CIS Daily Hydsim is expected to use 30-60 minutes computer time. • Therefore, option to do a 14-period Hydsim run first, then evaluate using CIS graphics • Then finalize with a Daily Hydsim run to produce data for input to Compass, CSS models • Produce Daily vs 14-period graphs on-screen using CIS Graphics GUI

  32. CIS Daily Hydsim dynamics • Its foundation is CIS 14-period Hydsim Fortran 90 code, enabled to run in daily mode • To make it efficient, Daily Modified flows and Climate Change flow scenarios are pre-stored in one “DailyFlowsMASTER.BIN” by a “DailyHydsimBIN.EXE” software • Modeler selects daily streamflow scenario – Modified flows or Climate Change scenario. • This selection triggers delivery of desired daily streamflows data to Daily Hydsim • Daily Hydsim also interpolates the daily elevation targets • Daily Hydsim regulates hydro system using these daily streamflows and elevation targets • Daily Hydsim stores its computed daily outflows, etc. in “DailyOutputMASTER.BIN • One output daily binary file, alongside with 14-period Master.BIN per study scenario • CIS Graphics will create for Compass model (if integrated within CIS) a binary file of multiple scenarios “Daily COMPASS MASTER FILE.BIN” containing flows, spill, water travel time

  33. Summary: CIS Daily Hydsim software logic • Start: Read one array of selected daily streamflows data for entire streamflow scenario • Loop thru each of 14-periods in each water year: • Read ending elevations, URCs, flow requirements from Master File.BIN . • Within each period, loop thru each day of the period • - Interpolate ending elevations targets and URC targets for the day • - Regulate hydro system to these targets, using streamflows “indexed” for the day • - Compute daily ending elevations, outflows, spill, WTT, flood risk • - NOTE: Time delay for outflows project-to-project will be a future enhancement • At the end one water year: Write all computed results into binary file • At the end all water years: Binary file has collection of study results for CIS graphics, COMPASS

  34. SUMMARY: Integration of CIS 14-period and Daily Hydsim operations exceptions Basic Input Input changes CIS HYBLD CIS HYMOD 14-period HYDSIM Revised Plant and Period.Bin Plant and Period.Bin DailyFlows.bin (created by ailyHydsimBIN.exe) 14-period Master File.Bin one scenario CIS Data Base 14-period multi scenarios Interpolate daily target elevs To CIS graphics DAILY HYDSIM MasterFile#2.BIN multiple scenarios selected data, projects, wyrs Master File#1.Bin one scenario Daily targets From 14-period ENDELEV, URC (one scenario) It takes only one button click in CIS GUI to run all of these To CIS DAILY graphics To Compass, CSS, etc

  35. Prelude to Daily Hydsim: 14-period CIS HYDSIM Input Phase • Input operations exceptions: • ERCs (Mica, Arrow, Coulee) • Vernita Bar flow reqmts • BiOP flow reqmts • Columbia Falls reqmts • Operation exceptions • Chum flow requirements • Project spill specs • (by project, wyr, period) • Input data overrides: • Operations specs • URCs • Select Climate Change flows scenario automated select • Basic Input DATA: • Plant data • 14-period Modified Flows • Target Elevs • Other reservoir specs • URCs • (by project, wyr, period) CIS HYBLD CIS HYMOD Plant.BIN Period.BIN CIS 14-period HYDSIM (Input processing) Revised Plant.BIN Revised Period.BIN • MASTER FILE.BIN (Input phase) • (14-period, one study scenario ) • Plant.BIN, Period.BIN • Input operations exceptions • by project, water year, period • Legend: • Input controlled, computed by CIS for input to Hydsim To 14-period CIS Modeling

  36. Prelude to Daily Hydsim: 14-period CIS HYDSIM MODELING • MASTER FILE.BIN (Input phase) • (14-period, one study scenario ) • Plant.BIN, Period.BIN • Input operations exceptions • by project, water year, period CIS 14-period HYDSIM Hydro Regulation, Output Phase • MASTER FILE.BIN (Output phase) • (14-period, one study scenario ) • ENDELEVs, URCs • Qout, spill, power • by project, water year, period • data from Plant.bin, Period.bin • CIS Data Base • 14-period, multiple study scenarios per Library • ENDELEVs, URCs • QOUT, SPILL, Power, TXT data inputs • by project, water year, period To Daily CIS Modeling To CIS graphics

  37. Prelude to Daily Hydsim: One-time construct binary file of streamflow scenarios • Daily Flows data: • Modified Flows spreadsheets • by project, wyr, mo, day • Climate Change flows TXT files • by project, CC-scenario, wyr, mo, day DailyHydsimBIN.EXE Upload , transform daily flows to binary file for Daily Hydsim (to make it efficient) • DailyFlowsMASTER.BIN • ALL daily flow scenarios from CIG study • Daily Modified Flows 20nn • by scenario, project, water year, mo, day To Daily CIS Modeling

  38. CIS DAILY HYDSIM MODELING CIS Interpolate Daily target elevs • MASTER FILE.BIN (Output phase) • (14-period, one study scenario ) • ENDELEVs, URCs • QOUT, spill, power • by project, water year, period • data from Plant.bin, Period.bin • Target ENDELEVs, URCs • Target flow and spill requiremts • (by project, water year, mo, day) Daily HYDSIM • DailyFlowsMASTER.BIN • ALL daily flow scenarios from CIG study • Daily Modified Flows 20nn • by scenario, project, water year, mo, day User-select flows scenario • DailyOutputMASTER.BIN • (one study scenario ) • daily ENDELEVs, URCs • daily QOUTs, spills, WTTs • daily excedence of flood flow limits • by project, water year, mo, day To CIS daily graphics To CIS daily graphics

  39. OUTPUTS FROM 14-period and Daily HYDSIM Architecture: The New CIS GRAPHICS: Daily vs. 14-period • CIS Data Base • 14-period, multiple scenarios per Library • ENDELEVs, URCs • QOUT, SPILL, Power, TXT data inputs • by project, water year, period CIS Daily vs 14period graphics • DailyFlowsMASTER.BIN • ALL flow scenarios per CIG study • Modified Flows 20nn • by scenario, project, water year, mo, day DailyOutputMASTER.BIN (study scenario B, C, etc) CIS flood risk analysis • Daily COMPASS MASTER FILE.BIN • (daily, multiple study scenarios for selected projects, by water year) • ENDELEVs, URCs • QOUT, spill, WTT, temperature, fish survival • Flood risks • DailyOutputMASTER.BIN • (study scenario A) • daily ENDELEVs, URCs • daily QOUTs, spills, WTTs • daily excedence of flood flow limits • by project, water year, mo, day CIS temperature modeling CIS compute WTT, fish survival For analysis by: COMPASS, CSS, ETC

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