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BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE

BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE. Governor’s Science, Mathematics, and Technology Summit Boise, Idaho October 20, 2006. Competency Urgently Needed. Rapid pace of change in the global economy and in the American workplace. Higher levels of knowledge and skills needed to succeed in today’s workplace.

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BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE

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  1. BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE Governor’s Science, Mathematics, and Technology Summit Boise, Idaho October 20, 2006

  2. Competency Urgently Needed • Rapid pace of change in the global economy and in the American workplace. • Higher levels of knowledge and skills needed to succeed in today’s workplace. • Increasing need for mathematics, science and technology in everyday decision-making. • Inextricably linked to nation’s security interests. • The intrinsic value of mathematical, scientific, and technological knowledge shape and define our common life, history, and culture.

  3. Fewer unskilled jobs, More higher skilled jobs 100% 16% 19% 23% 80% 10% 40% 60% Professional 47% Skilled 73% Unskilled 40% 40% 20% 30% 0% 1950 1994 2002 Source: U.S. Bureau of Census and PA Department of Labor and Industry, Center for Workforce Information and Analysis (PA statewide)

  4. Jobs require more education than before Change in the distribution of education in jobs 1973 v. 2001 -9% +16% -23% +16% 40% 40% 32% 16% 12% Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna M. Desrochers, Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K–16 Reform, ETS, 2003.

  5. Workplace Requires > HS Diploma Jobs that require at least some post-secondary education will make up more than two-thirds of new jobs. Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna M. Desrochers, Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K–16 Reform, ETS, 2003.

  6. Opportune Time for Progress • Education reform has the attention of the American public. • There are resources to invest in education. • Much has been learned about ways to improve math and science achievement. • A coming demographic shift will result in the retirement of two-thirds of the teaching force.

  7. Framework for Presentation • How effective is K-12 education? • How effective is K-12 mathematics and science education? • What is the impact of technology?

  8. Education Overview • How effective is K-12 education? • Are students completing their education? • Are they learning what they need?

  9. 100% 78% 75% 56% 52% Percentage of 9th grade students 50% 25% 0% Latino African American White On-time high school graduation, 2002 Source: Manhattan Institute,Public High School Graduation and College-Readiness Rates: 1991–2002, February 2005, http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/ewp_08.htm.

  10. 100% 75% 68% Percentage of 9th grade students 50% 40% 27% 18% 25% 0% Graduate high Start college Persist 2nd year Earn degree school Leaks in the Education Pipeline Source: National Center for Public Policy & Higher Education, Policy Alert, April 2004. Data are estimates of pipeline progress rather than actual cohort.

  11. Pipeline: Of 100 students • Graduate from High School on Time • National Average 68 • Idaho 77 • Montana 77 • Oregon 69 • Washington 68 • Wyoming 73 • Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, Policy Alert, April 2004

  12. Pipeline (Continued) • Immediately Enter College • National Average 40 • Idaho 34 • Montana 41 • Oregon 33 • Washington 30 • Wyoming 38 • Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, Policy Alert, April 2004

  13. Pipeline (Continued) • Still enrolled in Sophomore Year • National Average 27 • Idaho 22 • Montana 27 • Oregon 23 • Washington 22 • Wyoming 23 • Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, Policy Alert, April 2004

  14. Pipeline (Continued) • Graduate College on Time • National Average 18 • Idaho 14 • Montana 17 • Oregon 15 • Washington 15 • Wyoming 20 • Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, Policy Alert, April 2004

  15. High school graduation rate: US trailing Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2004, 2004.

  16. 100% 75% 45% 50% 42% 25% 0% High school graduates not High school graduates not prepared for college-level prepared to advance classes beyond entry-level jobs HS Graduates’ Lack of Preparation Average estimated proportions of recent high school graduates who are not prepared Source: Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies, Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? prepared for Achieve, Inc., 2005.

  17. Meaningful HS Diploma Source: Achieve Survey/Research, 2006.

  18. College Bound ≠ College Ready Reading 11% Nearly three in 10 first-year students are placed immediately into aremedial college course. Writing 14% Math 22% Reading, writing 28% or math 0% 20% 40% 60% Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Remedial Education at Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions in Fall 2000, 2003.

  19. 100% 76% 75% 63% 50% Percentage of college students 25% 0% Remedial reading Remedial math Remediation ≠ Graduation Percentage not earning degree by type of remedial coursework Many college students who need remediationespecially in reading and math, do not earn either an associate’s or a bachelor’s degree. Source: National Center for Education Statistics, The Condition of Education, 2004.

  20. HS Course-taking Narrows the Gap 13% 30% *Completing at least Algebra II plus other courses. Source: Adapted from Adelman, Clifford, U.S. Department of Education, Answers in the Toolbox, 1999.

  21. Public Opinion Research by: Strongest Economic Power Today Strongest Economic Powerin 20-30 Years United States China Japan European Union India China United States India European Union Japan

  22. Math and Science Education • How effective is K-12 math and science education? • Test scores? • Teacher quality? • Majors?

  23. Idaho/National Average Test Scores

  24. Idaho/National Education Indicators

  25. 2005 NAEP: Mathematics (National) • Mathematics performance improved for the nation, for the majority of states, and for many student groups. • Fourth-graders’ average score was 3 points higher and eighth-graders’ average score was 1 point higher in 2005 than in 2003, on a 0 to 500 point scale.

  26. 2005 NAEP: Mathematics (State) • Average scores at grade 4 increased in 31 states. The percentage of students performing at or above Basic increased in 23 states and the District of Columbia. • At grade 8, 7 states had higher average scores in 2005 than in 2003. The percentage of students performing at or above Basic increased in 5 states. • Good enough?

  27. 2005 NAEP: Mathematics (Idaho) In Grade 4 • 86% scored at or above Basic • 40% scored at or above Proficient • 5% scored at or above Advanced In Grade 8 • 73% scored at or above Basic • 30% scored at or above Proficient • 5% scored at or above Advanced

  28. 2005 NAEP: Science (National) • At grade 4, the average science score was higher in 2005 than in previous assessment years.  • At grade 8, the average science score in 2005 showed no significant change compared to results in 1996 and 2000. • At grade 12, the average science score was lower than in 1996, and showed no significant change from 2000. 

  29. 2005 NAEP: Science (States) Since 2000 • 9 states improved at Grade 4 • 11 states improved and 4 declined at Grade 8 • 5 states improved at both grades. • Idaho had no significant difference at either grade.

  30. Well-prepared Teachers? Source: US Department of Education, School and Staffing Survey 1999-2000

  31. Well-prepared teachers? (Continued) 7-12 Teachers who lack major, certification or both English 47.1% Mathematics 48.9% 41.5% Science Social Studies 42.7% 0% 20% 40% 60% Source: Richard Ingersoll, Out-of-Field Teaching and the Limits of Teacher Policy, CPRE, 2003.

  32. Uneven Teacher Quality Distribution • In high poverty schools, 40% of teachers do not have even a minor in mathematics. • In the remaining schools, 28% of teachers do not have even a minor in mathematics. • In high poverty schools, 20% of teachers do not have even a minor in science. • In the remaining schools, 14% of teachers do not have even a minor in science.

  33. Flat STEM Bachelor Degree Production

  34. US STEM Talent Pool Compared

  35. What is Your Greatest Concern? Opinion Leaders Voters US K-12 student performance in math and science lags behind other countries Far fewer US college students earn science & engineering degrees than students worldwide Technical jobs are growing 5 times faster than others; less than 15% of US students take scientific/technical courses Half the engineering, math, computer science doctoral students in US are born in other countries 28% 36% 24% 14% 22% 18% 12% 23%

  36. Reluctance To Influence Choices: Jobs requiring technical training – in science, technology, engineering, and math – are growing five times faster than other occupations. Which approach would you take with your child/a child you’re close to about career choices? Allow child to pursue whatever career path he/she feels suits best Encourage child to pursue career in science, tech, engineering, math but balance with child’s preference Try to persuade child toward career in science, tech, engineering, math

  37. Confluence of Education and Workplace • What is the impact of technology?

  38. Technology is Changing Workplace • Computers are able to perform more efficiently than humans in a limited and well-defined set of tasks, predominantly those that involve repetitive cognitive and manual activity. • Computers complement activities requiring non-routine problem-solving and interactive tasks. • The task content of human employment is changing with more demand for non-routine problem-solving. Source: Autor, D. Levy, F. and Murnane, R. The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration. 2003

  39. Technology is Changing Job Tasks Source: Autor, D. Levy, F. and Murnane, R. The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration. 2003

  40. Business is A Key Player • Business community has a lot of political influence • Respected as a honest broker focused on results without the ‘baggage’ of education interest groups. • Along with higher education, viewed as a customer for the education pipeline • Business has its own point of view • Along with knowledge and citizenship, education should provide workforce preparation • Experience in setting and reaching incremental goals

  41. Contact Information Linda P. Rosen, Ph.D. Education and Management Innovations, Inc. lrosen@emisquared.com 301.493.9570

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