1 / 35

Can we achieve significant mitigation?

Can we achieve significant mitigation?. Willett Kempton and Jeremy Firestone Center for Carbon-free Power Integration College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment University of Delaware Strategic Planning and Financing for Mitigation Activities Global Oceans Conference 2010 UNESCO Fonteroy

mimis
Download Presentation

Can we achieve significant mitigation?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Can we achieve significant mitigation? • Willett Kempton and Jeremy Firestone • Center for Carbon-free Power Integration • College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment • University of Delaware • Strategic Planning and Financing for Mitigation Activities • Global Oceans Conference 2010 • UNESCO Fonteroy • 6 May 2010

  2. New Thinking in Mitigation

  3. Climate Change and Ocean AcidificationrequireLarge non-CO2 Resources, Fast Action

  4. What is in our toolkit?(a regional study)

  5. Non-CO2 Resources • Ocean renewable Resources: • Offshore wind • Tidal • Wave • Ocean current (e.g. Gulf stream, Japan current) • Salt gradient • Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion • Non-ocean renewable energy sources: • Building solar, central solar • Wind over land, high-altitude wind • (and many others)

  6. Why Focus on Offshore Wind? • Technology available and proven today • Costs near-competitive with fossil • OS Wind €.12, solar €.25, market €.05 - .10 / kWh • Near-term technology, or higher volumes, or policy, will reduce costs further • Only economical and large non-CO2 resource in many highly populated coastal areas • Definitely continue R&D of other ocean (and land) renewable sources -- implement wind today!

  7. Problems with Offshore Wind • Some avian deaths (3-6 birds/tower/year) • Pelagic species displaced during construction • Aesthetic or viewshed impact • Recommendation: Calculate net impact, subtracting impact of power plants displaced • Net health & environmental benefit is huge • Still, site choices should consider impacts

  8. What is offshore wind power?

  9. Example offshore system layout from: Søren Juel Petersen, Rambøll Wind Energy (talk at UD, 2 Oct 06)

  10. Art: NY Times Magazine

  11. Is this resource big enough to impact climate change?

  12. Example Resource Size • Examine one small state: Delaware • Compare practical resource size • Solar, on-land wind, offshore wind, biomass, offshore oil and gas • Which resource can reach 80% reduction?

  13. Today’s use vs. Resources elec oil nat. gas

  14. Resource size

  15. Power for a large region? • Compare available power • With uses of power • Is offshore wind enough for the 80% reduction? • Can we build it fast enough to mitigate climate change?

  16. Large resource on Mid-Atlantic • Examine resource of entire Mid-Atlantic • Vs. load

  17. Needs vs. Resource

  18. Needs vs. Resource All of electricity, cars and heating uses 2/3 of the wind resource, dropping regional CO2 by 68%. Yes, this makes a significant difference.

  19. Can we implement fast enough?

  20. You can't make that many wind turbines! • 108 GWa supplies all electric plus all cars • Assume that each wind turbine is 5 MW nameplate at 40% CF, so 2 MWa average output • Requires 54,000 wind turbines for all electricity and all cars for mid-Atlantic • The technology is ready today; at these volumes, cost would be below market • Can we do this in 50 years?

  21. B-24E (Liberator), 1942

  22. WW II Aircraft Production(1,000s) And that’s not to mention all the tanks, ships & guns! 54,000 for U.S. East Coast by year 4 at WWII rates, or

  23. WW II Aircraft Production(1,000s) And that’s not to mention all the tanks, ships & guns! 54,000 for U.S. East Coast by year 4 at WWII rates, or 10 Factory complexes can do this in 15 years!

  24. What is needed to build and develop? • A WWII production effort would do it in four years. • No new technology needed. • But what if we don’t have a WWII (politically)? • What policies are needed? Rosie the Riveter Poster by J. Howard Miller

  25. How to actually move forward?

  26. What is needed • Rethink! Differentiate among renewable energy sources • Environmental policy and permitting • Economic policies

  27. First, need to rethink • Renewable sources are not all the same! • Some are expensive • Some can be cost-competitive with fossil • Some are small • Some are much bigger than current resources • Environmentalist need to calculate Net Impact • Towers in ocean are much less impact than either ocean acidification or climate change

  28. Environmental Policy • Environmental policy “precautionary,” slow development, study any possible impacts • Climate change urgency changes that • “Precaution” for renewable development may be--move while studying impacts • For example, compare ... • UK ocean zoning to speed development, vs. • US processes cumbersome and slow

  29. Economic policy • Solution in EU: “Feed-in tariff” fixes price • Renewable cost is mostly up front--no fuel, low O&M • Thus, low cost capital leads to cheaper power • Solutions: Public bonds, loan guarantees • Fossil policies: pass-through future fuel cost increases • Solution: Bids require future costs to be set • US state power decisions require “least cost” • Solution: Include health and environment costs (then, least cost is already wind)

  30. Summary: we can do this! • Large resources with cost-competitive technology already are here • The barriers are economic/regulatory policies inherited from the fossil era • Taylor policies for each renewable resource--rapid development vs. R&D • Precautionary habits and rules must allow pro-active ocean protection

  31. END • More information: • www.carbonfree.udel.edu • Thanks to: • Delaware Sea Grant • Delaware Green Energy Fund • College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, U Delaware

More Related