PEAK OIL AND THE FATE OF HUMANITY Chapter 3B – Will Renewable Energy Sources Save the Day? Robert Bériault

1. PEAK OIL AND THE FATE OF HUMANITY Chapter 3B – Will Renewable Energy Sources Save the Day? Robert Bériault

2. What about the hydrogen economy Earthlings talk so much about?

3. A hydrogen economy : What would it entail? Is it feasible?

4. The idea is to replace the oil used in transportation with hydrogen. This would require building: • 800 million fuel-cell operated cars • The wind farms or photovoltaic arrays to produce renewable electricity • The infrastructure to produce liquid hydrogen, to store it and to transport it to the consumer • Hydrogen stations to replace present gas stations.

5. A hydrogen economy would also have to include, trucking, air and sea travel.

6. Advantages of hydrogen: • Could be produced from wind, solar, hydro or nuclear sources • Clean-burning. Water is its only product of combustion • Portable: Might be the most practical way to “carry” electricity to drive vehicles

7. Problems with hydrogen - 1 Physical characteristics: • 10 X more flammable than gasoline • Its explosive range is 20 X greater than that of gasoline • Very little energy by volume (requires huge tanks) • Flame is invisible • Small size of hydrogen molecule leaks easily • It is also very corrosive (pipe connections, valves, seals, etc.)

8. Problems with hydrogen - 2 Both forms of storage are problematic When carried as a liquid it is more practical for transport. BUT IT RESULTS IN: a 30% loss through the liquefaction process + a 1.7% evaporation loss per day When carried as a gas it must be under very high pressure (10,000 – 20,000 lbs / sq. in.) or Compressed hydrogen for use in busses Liquid hydrogen for use in cars Exxon-Mobil Report, Oct. 2004

9. Problems with hydrogen - 2 Both forms of storage are problematic Either way, with a hydrogen vehicle you’d have to forget about parking indoors Exxon-Mobil Report, Oct. 2004

10. Problems with hydrogen - 2 Transportation to filling stations would be problematic = To carry the same equivalent energy to the filling station would require 21 times more trucks than for gasoline* Just imagine how many hydrogen tankers would be roaming the roadways in search of accidents! * The Future of the Hydrogen Economy: Bright or Bleak?, Baldur Eliasson and Ulf Bossel, ABB Switzerland Ltd.

11. Problems with hydrogen - 3 Effect on ozone layer • Hydrogen leakage would be similar to chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) • Could indirectly cause as much as a 10-percent decrease in atmospheric ozone • Scientists are uncertain about the effects on the atmosphere because they still have a limited understanding of the hydrogen cycle. If hydrogen were to replace fossil fuels entirely: California Institute of Technology June 12, 2003

12. Problems with hydrogen - 4 Not an energy source, but an energy carrier: • There are no exploitable underground sources of hydrogen • It takes more energy to produce hydrogen than what the resulting hydrogen will yield – always* • Why? – because the process creates a waste product: heat (heat energy) • Blame the laws of thermodynamics! * “The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate if Industrial Societies”, Richard Heinberg

13. Problems with hydrogen - 5 Technology not ready: • Fuel cell technology for cars is still under development • We might have to resort to using the hydrogen directly as fuel in internal combustion engines

14. Problems with hydrogen - 6 • Virtually all commercial hydrogen is made by natural gas reforming or by gasification of coal. * • The infrastructure for large scale production by electrolysis of water from wind or solar would have to be built from scratch. * Mr. D.R. Simbeck, Vice President Technology, SFA Pacific, Inc., Mountain View, CA

15. Energy Capital $$$ Problems with hydrogen - 7 Infrastructure cost: To convert from a gasoline to a hydrogen infrastructure would require massive amounts of :

16. You can see that hydrogen made from water is much more expensive Exxon-Mobil Report, Oct. 2004

17. What necessities would you have to do without if a fill-up cost $400?

18. Problems with hydrogen - 8 No commercial hydrogen is made from wind or solar energy today: • It just doesn’t make economic sense because natural gas is so cheap • Will it ever make economic sense?

19. Buy a smaller gasoline car • Walk • Take public transit • Cycle When gas and oil get expensive: Rather than going hydrogen, it will probably always make more economic sense to:

20. James Howard Kunstler has this to say about hydrogen: • “The widespread belief that hydrogen is going to save technological society from the fast-approaching oil and gas reckoning is probably a good index of how delusional our oil-addicted society has become.” The Long Emergency, James Howard Kunstler

21. Some analysts conclude that: Some analysts conclude that: a HYDROGEN ECONOMY will never be economically feasible

22. There’s a lot of news about ethanol in your newspapers. Couldn’t ethanol replace gasoline?

23. Growing our fuel…

24. For one thing, Growing corn to make ethanol takes a lot of cropland out of food production

25. Let’s suppose Americans work like mad between now and 2020: …and switched all of their 300 million cars to corn-derived ethanol… Take a guess at how much land it would take to grow the corn!

26. Red portion = area required for replacing US gasoline needs for 2020 Today, cropland makes up 19% of all the land in the United States Exxon-Mobil Report, Oct. 2004

27. In a world of declining per capita grain production, is it wise to create another use for farmland?

28. Taking land out of food production: According to Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute: “ U.S. automakers’ push for vehicles able to run on ethanol made from corn will boost food costs and global hunger…The vast number of distilleries in operation and in the planning stages threatens to reduce grain available for direct human consumption.”

29. And here’s another thing about ethanol-from-corn: The Energy Return On Energy Invested is low (1.7 to 1). It takes almost as much energy to grow the corn and process the ethanol than the energy we can derive from the ethanol.

30. Some energy analysts say: If we’re going to make corn-derived ethanol fuel… … we might as well chase our tails!!!

31. What about the company in your natal city that produces antoher kind of alcohol?

32. Ah!, what you’re referring to is cellulosic alcohol – ethanol made from cellulose, the fibrous part of plants like stems, branches and trunks. It differs from grain alcohol in that it requires a greater amount of processing to make the sugar monomers available to the microorganisms that are typically used to produce ethanol by fermentation. But there are more serious drawbacks than this…

33. To find out what they are, I recommend viewing the DVD: By David Fridley: http://www.sfbayoil.org/sfoa/myths/index.html

34. OK, then, what about that diesel fuel you can make from those little green creatures?

35. What you’re referring to is biodiesel from algae: You can find some interesting papers on the internet about how fantastic this still-to-be-developed technology will be. If you believe the claims, for a fraction of the cost of one year’s imports, the USA could build facilities to replace all of the country’s liquid fuel needs. Scientist examines a flask of oil produced from algae

36. Biodiesel from algae: The procedure would use liquid waste streams from farms and municipal sewage on which they would grow oil-producing algae. The oil could be burned directly in diesel engines if supplemented with 10% methanol. Botryococcus, an oil producing green alga Michael Briggs, University of New Hampshire, Physics Dept.

37. Biodiesel from algae: If something is too good to be true… …draw your own conclusions Oil from algae has only been produced under laboratory conditions. It cannot be scaled up to industrial production.

38. I saw some solar panels from my spaceship. Couldn’t they solve the oil crisis? I hear they can be used to make hydrogen

39. Photovoltaic (solar) panels convert sunlight directly into electricity

40. Advantages: • Quiet operation • Can be placed on rooftops, close to point of use • Little maintenance except for washing and de-icing US General Services Admin., Pacific Rim Region

41. Problems With Photovoltaics - 1 Solar panels take up a lot of surface area To replace 1 nuclear reactor would take 75 sq. km of solar panels in southern Canada

42. Problems With Photovoltaics - 2 They don’t work: 1) When it’s cloudy (think of November And December) 2)When it’s dark

43. Problems With Photovoltaics - 3 The electricity produced can’t be used in transportation …unless converted into a fuel

44. Problems With Photovoltaics - 4 A lot more expensive than what we’re used to spending: Electricity from solar panels presently costs 57¢ per KWH* vs. 6¢ for electricity from coal or hydro $$$ * http://www.solarbuzz.com

45. The big difficulty with photovoltaics is that there is no cheap way to store the electricity during the day… …so that we have power to run the lights during the night.

46. One way we could get around this would be to convert surplus solar electricity into hydrogen during the day -- and then convert the hydrogen back into electricity at night. Solar electricity Hydrogen Electricity

47. The problem with doing this, is that in each step of the conversion process, we lose some of the energy through waste heat. Those darned laws of thermodynamics come into play!

48. Solar power is used to make hydrogen by electrolysis Fuel cell converts hydrogen back to electricity Hydrogen is liquefied for storing Hydrogen is lost through storage & transportation Solar panel produces electricity Transformation & transmission Consumer Energy losses: 25%* 30%* 15%** 20%z 10% zz Here is an example of the energy losses that can be encountered at each step of the way: * The Future of the Hydrogen Economy: Bright or Bleak? Baldur Eliasson and Ulf Bossel ABB Switzerland Ltd., Corporate Research, Baden-Dättwil / Switzerland ** Exxon-Mobil Report, Oct. 2004 z “Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Developers Claim 50% Efficiency” I.H.S. Petrochemicals “Fuel Cell Efficiency: A Reality Check”, E.V. World zz Overview of the Electric Grid, U.S. Department of Energy

49. Solar power is used to make hydrogen by electrolysis Fuel cell converts hydrogen back to electricity Hydrogen is liquefied for storing Hydrogen is lost through storage & transportation Solar panel produces electricity Transformation & transmission Consumer Energy losses: 25%* 30%* 15%** 20%z 10% zz Because of efficiency losses the 57¢ per KWHcostincreases to $1.77 per KWH !!!* *Calculations of cost by author

50. Canadians presently pay between 5¢ and 8¢ per KWH By this calculation, your $100 a month hydro bill would climb to $2700!!! And in my calculations I used the most optimistic numbers!