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Population

Population. Population Geography. Distribution of World Population Population Statistics Population Pyramids Demographic Transition Theory Population Control Overpopulation (Malthus and Neo-Malthusians).

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Population

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  1. Population

  2. Population Geography • Distribution of World Population • Population Statistics • Population Pyramids • Demographic Transition Theory • Population Control • Overpopulation (Malthus and Neo-Malthusians)

  3. Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a unit of land area. U.S. = 76/mi2; NYC=1,000,000/mi2; Australia = 7/mi2 Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land.

  4. World and Country Population Totals Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface! Total: 6 billion on planet as of Oct. 12, 1999 Current Population Counter Five most populous regions and countries REGION POPULATION COUNTRY POPULATION • East Asia 1.5 billion China 1.254 billion • South Asia 1.2 billion India 986 million • Europe 750 million U.S. 274 million • SE Asia 500 million Indonesia 206 million • East N. Am.120 million Brazil 168 million

  5. Rates of Natural Increase

  6. NIR Formula CBR – CDR=NIR Example: 20 (CBR)-5 (CDR)=15 per 1,000 or 1.5% ALWAYS EXPRESSED AS A PERCENT!!!

  7. Total Fertility Rate TFR- the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years. This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2. 2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world. In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age.

  8. Infant Mortality Rate IMR – the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.

  9. Family Planning Programs • One family/one child policies • Female infanticide • Social compensation fees • Sterilization • Loss of status • Termination healthcare/food coupons • Free birth control • Increased literacy and education

  10. Demographic Transition Model

  11. Demographic Transition Model • Stage one (preindustrial/pre-agricultural) • Crude birth/death rate high • Several spikes and drops in CBR/CDR • Stage two (improved agriculture and medicine) • Lower death rates • Infant mortality rate falls • Natural increase very high • Stage three (Social change) • Indicative of richer developed countries • Higher standards of living/education • Crude birth rate finally falls • Stage four • Crude birth/death rates low • Population stable • Populations aging

  12. 3 reasons for stage changes

  13. Change from stage 2 to stage 3

  14. Cape Verde Stage 2 • Remained in stage 1 until 1950 • Still in stage 2 for several reasons • Famine • Fluctuating CBR and CDR • Long term effects of fluctuation • Medical revolution

  15. Chile Stage 3 Changed from an agricultural society to an industrial society Moved to stage 2 because of medical revolution Moved to stage 3 because of government family planning policies in 1966. Reduced incomes and high employment postponed marriage and childbearing Will not move into stage 4 because Chile has reversed policy and most Chileans are Roman Catholic who do not believe in artificial birth control methods

  16. Denmark Stage 4 Increasingly high number of elderly CBR is declining while CDR is rising CDR will continue to rise unless a new medical revolution takes place Denmark has a column population pyramid that is top heavy with the elderly

  17. Stage 2 countries have a dependency ratio of 1:1 • 10:1 for younger dependants • Stage 4 countries have a dependency ratio of 2:1 • Elderly and young are roughly equal • More than ¼ government expenditures are on the elderly in stage 3 and 4 countries Women outnumber men in most MDCs Countries with high immigration have more males Retirement communities have more women than men Population Pyramids are effected by ethnic compositions

  18. 4 3 5 2 1

  19. Analysis of Italy’s Population Pyramid • 1. Decline in Birth Rate • 2. Baby Boom • 3. Fewer men due to World War I and II • 4. More women due to: a. longer life expectancy and b. World Wars (I and II) • 5. More 75-79 yrs than 0-4 yrs. Signs of a future worker shortage and an overall declining population.

  20. Thomas Malthus on Population An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798 Malthus predicted population would outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per person. Assumptions • Populations grow exponentially. • Food supply grows arithmetically. • Food shortages and chaos inevitable.

  21. Neo Malthusians People who support Malthus’ original hypothesis but tweaked the theory • Malthus failed to include LDCs in his theory • LDCs entered stage 2 not because of wealth but because of medical revolution • Overpopulation affects not just food production but also other resources • Population will continue to rise in LDCs therefore people will be fighting over resources not just food

  22. Critics of Malthus • Possibilism allows for humans to change environment • Larger population stimulates economic growth and ideas • Marxists believe poverty and hunger are a result of unjust social institutions • Higher population for national defense (armies) • Capitalism creates unequal access to resources

  23. Declining Birth Rates • The only way to stop overpopulation is to control the CBR of LCDs • Reasons for decline are lower CBR or higher CDR • Two ways to lower CBR • Increased economic development provides better education and health care • Distribution of contraceptives and education about family planning

  24. Epidemiological Transition • Stage 1 Pestilence and famine • Black Plaque • Stage 2 Pandemics • Cholera • Stage 3 degenerative diseases • Cardiovascular disease, heart attacks • Stage 4 delayed stage 3 because of medical technology • Possible stage 5 reemergence of stage 1 (infectious and parasitic diseases) • Evolution of diseases, poverty and increased travel • Malaria, TB and SARS

  25. Summary • Overpopulation is a relationship between the size of the population and a region’s level of resources • CBR must be reduced in order to curb global population growth • Countries experience different population and epidemiological transitions • Malthus was only partly correct • LDCs increasing populations make up for MDCs declining populations

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