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Climate crisis in Jacksonville: What does the future hold?

Climate crisis in Jacksonville: What does the future hold?. Adam Rosenblatt, PhD University of North Florida October 8, 2019. Overview. Global climate trends Jacksonville climate projections What you can do to help What do you think?. Rosenblatt Lab research.

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Climate crisis in Jacksonville: What does the future hold?

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  1. Climate crisis in Jacksonville:What does the future hold? Adam Rosenblatt, PhD University of North Florida October 8, 2019

  2. Overview • Global climate trends • Jacksonville climate projections • What you can do to help • What do you think?

  3. Rosenblatt Lab research • Understanding the effects of environmental change on plants and animals • Climate change • Urbanization • Current focus is on alligators, sea turtles, and arthropods (spiders and grasshoppers)

  4. CO2 measurements 408 ppm CO2 levels have not been this high for about 3 million years Scripps Institution of Oceanography

  5. In my lifetime (35 years): +70 ppm End of last glacial period +70 ppm took ~3500 years

  6. Rising temperatures Every decade since 1950 has been warmer than the one before it The 18 hottest years on record (since 1880) have occurred in the last 20 years July 2019 was the hottest month ever recorded US Global Change Research Program

  7. 4 Hiroshima-sized nuclear bombs worth of extra heat added to the climate system every second! Nuccitelli et al. 2012

  8. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  9. What’s going to happen in Jacksonville?

  10. Climate change – Duval County US Global Change Research Program

  11. Union of Concerned Scientists; Dahl et al. 2019

  12. Scenario: No action on climate change Union of Concerned Scientists; Dahl et al. 2019

  13. Scenario: No action on climate change Union of Concerned Scientists; Dahl et al. 2019

  14. Florida is uniquely vulnerable In Jacksonville, $870 million in property value threatened with flooding by 2050 $7.2 billion by 2100 Union of Concerned Scientists

  15. Jacksonville is uniquely vulnerable Center for Climate Integrity

  16. Hurricanes

  17. Hurricanes • It’s too soon to know if hurricane frequency will change • It’s very likely that: • Rainfall amount per hurricane will continue to increase (10-15%) • Average hurricane strength will continue to increase (1-10%) • Proportion of hurricanes reaching Cat 4/5 will continue to increase National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

  18. Cat 2/3 TS

  19. What can you do?

  20. 1. Write a constituent letter 2. Write a letter of support for HR 763

  21. Questions? Contact info adam.rosenblatt@unf.edu @aroseadam

  22. Sources • Scripps Institution of Oceanography (https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/) • Mann, M., Z Zhang, MK Hughes, RS Bradley, SK Miller, S Rutherford, F Ni, 2008. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105, 13252–13257 • US Global Change Research Program (https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/multimedia/global-temperature-and-carbon-dioxide) and (https://toolkit.climate.gov/#climate-explorer) • Nuccitelli et al. 2012 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0375960112010389) • Washington, W., L Buja, A Craig, 2009. The computational future for climate and Earth system models: on the path to petaflop and beyond. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 367, 833-846 • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/robust2015/background.html) and (https://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/topic_summary.php)

  23. More sources • Union of Concerned Scientists (https://ucsusa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=e4e9082a1ec343c794d27f3e12dd006d%20) and (https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/global-warming-impacts/sea-level-rise-chronic-floods-and-us-coastal-real-estate-implications) • Climate Central (http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/) • Center for Climate Integrity (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/climate/seawalls-cities-cost-climate-change.html) • National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/) • Ficklin, D., JT Maxwell, SL Letsinger, H Gholizadeh, 2015. A climatic deconstruction of recent drought trends in the United States. Environmental Research Letters 10, 044009 • https://europa.eu/capacity4dev/unep/documents/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-2018

  24. Energy investment by country • 2017 • India = $10.9 billion • US = $40.5 billion • EU = $40.9 billion • China = $126.1 billion United Nations Environment Programme

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