1 / 21

Power Choices: Achieving Carbon-Neutral Power in Europe by 2050

This study explores the most economic pathway to deliver carbon-neutral power in Europe by 2050, focusing on the role of electricity in mitigating climate change. It assesses the impacts on CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions and emphasizes the importance of energy efficiency and electrification. The study highlights the need for significant investments in low-carbon generation options to achieve the desired emission reductions.

mmoses
Download Presentation

Power Choices: Achieving Carbon-Neutral Power in Europe by 2050

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Owen WILSON Environment and Sustainable Development Committee, EURELECTRIC POWER CHOICES EURELECTRIC Study on low-CO2 Europe by 2050 Geneva, 13th April 2010

  2. Background • EURELECTRIC “Role of Electricity” Study (2007) • Changed Energy landscape • Climate Challenge; Security of supply; Competitive EU economy • Partners: University of Leuven (Demand); VGB (Supply); Technical University of Athens (Modelling); McKinsey (co-ordination) • Focus: How to provide low-carbon, secure energy at least cost • Outcome: 50% reduction in EU27 GHG emissions by 2050 • European Council decisions on Climate-Energy package and 2050 objective • Economic and financial crises • Electricity industry CEOs Declaration

  3. EURELECTRIC CEO Declaration18 March 2009 Carbon-neutral power in Europe by 2050 • Cost-efficient, reliable supply through an integrated market • Energy efficiency & electricity use as solutions to mitigate climate change

  4. High Level Strategy to deliver CEO Declaration • Build on “Role of Electricity” Study • “Role of Electricity” took technological and policy developments as start point and projected impacts on CO2 emissions to 2050 • New study, “Power Choices”, takes 2050 GHG objective (-75% on 1990) as start point and maps most economic pathway for delivery • Consequential impacts on SO2, NOx emissions also assessed

  5. “Power Choices” Study • SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS • 75% GHG cut across whole EU economy, consistent with 450 ppm global in 2050 • CO2 price applied uniformly to all sectors • Power becomes major transport fuel • All power generation options available • (with CCS commercially available as of 2025) • Major policy push in energy efficiency • No binding RES target post-2020; RES support mechanisms withdrawn by 2030 • CO2 price is the only driver for low-carbon generation post 2030 • Rational behaviour by economic agents • BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS • No new policy developments post 2009 • ETS 1.74% p.a. reduction continues • No CO2 price in non-ETS sectors • Bottom up measures to support energy efficiency, new renewables • MODELLING • PROMETHEUS to evaluate global energy supply/demand and prices • PRIMES to evaluate EU27 energy supply/demand (as per DGTREN Dec 2009) and emissions

  6. “Power Choices” Output Summary • Energy efficiency in buildings, houses, electricity use (appliances, lighting, heat pumps, motor drives … ) • Domestic sector savings • -16% in 2030 relative to Baseline; -39% in 2050 relative to Baseline • Electrification of road transport • 10% in 2030; 80% in 2050 • Renewables in heat and power generation • 37% in 2030; 40% in 2050 • CCS in power generation • 63 GW in 2030; 191 GW in 2050 (85% of CO2 captured) • Nuclear energy • 132 GW in 2030 (85 GW new); 175 GW in 2050

  7. Energy Efficiency is Key Stationary uses - 10% on Baseline by 2030 - 30% on Baseline by 2050 Transport uses - 7% on Baseline by 2030 - 29% on Baseline by 2050

  8. Composition of electricity demand Electricity demand on Power Choices vs. Baseline

  9. Overall energy demand -30% vs. Baseline in 2050 Paradigm shift to efficient electric technologies More electricity = less energy

  10. Need for all low-carbon generation options Net power generation in EU-27 • In 2050 • RES: • 40% of total mix (1910 TWh) • Wind: 56% of RES • Nuclear: • 28% of total mix (1330 TWh) • CCS: • 28% of total mix (1320 TWh) • Other fossils: • 4% of total mix (210 TWh)

  11. Carbon emissions from power fall by >90% Deep emission cuts take place between 2025-2040. But investments are needed NOW! NOW: 1423 MtCO2 2050: 128 MtCO2

  12. Decomposition of emissions reduction in Power Sector

  13. Decomposition (ex-post) of emissions reduction

  14. Investment needed across the period Gross investment in generation capacity 2010 – 2050 13% 17% 4% 52% 14% MW

  15. Significant investments…… but a reasonable cost for society Investment needed in power generation by 2050: €2 trillion

  16. What if… Nuclear phase-out is reversed in Germany and Belgium? Commercial deployment of CCS is delayed to 2035? One-third of onshore wind power is not built due to planning problems?

  17. CCS delay CO2 emissions from power, EU-27 Power Choices Mt Nuclear+ 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 All technologies are really needed • More nuclear = more rapid reduction curve • 10-year delay of CCS = delayed CO2 emission reductions from power & whole economy! • 1/3 onshore wind not built = more CCS & nuclear, off-shore wind not likely to fill gap.

  18. Power Sector SO2 and NOx emissions • SO2 emissions • 3.3 Mt in 2000 • 0.2 Mt in 2050 • NOx emissions • 1.6 Mt in 2000 • 0.5 Mt in 2050 • Major impact on urban • air quality

  19. Key outcomes EU carbon-neutral power by 2050 is realistic -75% GHG on whole economy can be reached • Energy efficiency is critical • Electrification of the demand side essential • All power generation options needed • Significant investment but at acceptable cost to society • The major CO2 reductions in power are achieved from 2025 onwards • CCS delayed &/or nuclear phase-out = slower CO2 reduction • Significant co-benefits with air pollutants

  20. CO2 reductions Technology choices • Support CO2 market to deliver cap at least cost • All sectors to internalise cost of GHGs • Promote an international agreement on climate • Enable the use of all low-carbon options for power generation • Encourage public support for modern energy infrastructure: onshore wind, CCS, smart grids… Cost Demand-side • Significant investment cost but reduction in share of GDP • Recognise that cost of technology deployment differs substantially across the EU • Major policy push in energy efficiency • Facilitate electrification of road transport and spatial heating & cooling Policy recommendations

  21. EURELECTRIC’s partner organisations in Power Choices study: National Technical University of Athens Verband der Großkraftwerks-Betreiber

More Related