Research

1. Research

2. INTELLIGENCE PROCESS Interns will be embedded in this process and spend lots of time in the ACQUIRE INFORMATION stage. However each stage is important, and growing into the process is one of the goals of the program.

3. Basic Criteria • Actionable • Accuracy is absolutely critical • Completion is our goal in everything • Neat, organized, accessible • Timely • Focus. Keep the multitasking in check. • Knowing where to go (hint: probably not Google)

4. Time Management • Research starts with questions. Get your bearings. • Spend enough time that the research is solid, but not so much that a missed deadline destroys its value. • Set personal deadlines and keep them. • Always start with the assumption that the intel exists: Where is it and how long will it take to find it?

5. INFORMATION ZONESInterns will spend most time working in the outer two zones: electronic and paper formatted OSINT.

6. Modes of Collection • Passive • Rapid, efficient, cheap, anonymous • Our lifeblood. • Semi-active • Can be extremely valuable by allowing you to get quick answers to complex questions. • At the mercy of others, so start early. • Active: Field work. Won’t be using it.

7. Collection Mode: passive

8. The Internet • This is our world. STRATFOR wouldn’t exist in its current form without that great networked ocean of knowledge. • Get to know it. Be a geek. • Explore creative new ways to obtain knowledge • Invent interesting ways to interpret it • Be on the cutting edge

9. The Deep Web • Databases that are not indexed by major search engines • 500-550x more info than surface web. Roughly size of 300 LOC’s. • You’ve got to know where to look

10. Internet Dos and Don’ts • DON’T • Outsource your brain to Google – It makes you dumb and confines you to the surface • Trust the first report you come across – Back-trace to source. Independently verify. • DO • Use the grey matter before the microchip. THINK. “Who would have the information I need?” • Start stupid, build up.

11. Finding Sources • Research sources XLS • Networked bookmarks • Google - I lied, it’s awesome • Search modifiers, URL analysis • ‘Database’ search • Wikipedia • Be careful – Only good as a jumping off point • Check the links at the bottom • Trade orgs and market reports – money at stake and boots on the ground • Blogs

12. Economy and Finance • IMF. IFS, WEO, SDDS, Article IV consultations, papers. • UN. Commodities, demographics, external debt, developmental. • EIA, IEA, OPEC, BP, Petroleum Economist, Oil and Gas Journal, FAS, FAO, USGS • Eurostat, ITC TradeMap, bilaterals.org

13. Military and Counterterrorism • DOD/Dot-Mils, Press releases, PAOs • UNHCR, ReliefWeb, Logistics Cluster • Global Security, Military Periscope, SIPRI, INSS, Jane’s, IISS Balance • RAND, CSIS, Brookings, Institute for Study of War, etc • NCTC WITS, UMD GTD, SATP • Facebook, blogs (surprisingly)

14. Other Useful Sources • Government websites • Ministries for everything! Trade, finance, defense, foreign affairs, etc. • Central banks • Reference library • Janes, Military Balance, Energy Atlases, statistical references, maps, periodicals, etc • The library (brick structure with books inside)

15. Media Reports • Distinguish between OSINT and HUMINT • OSINT: Access the primary source • HUMINT: Handle with care. • Fully back-trace and cite. • Reliable outlets only (no Debka or Prison Planet for starters) • Seek independent verification

16. Digging up Media Reports • Internal • Stratfor.com • Your own email • Quick Find vs. Message Search • OS collections and translations • Mailman archives • External • Monitoring sites list • Google News/Archives/Newspapers • Modifiers work here too • BBC Monitoring • Nexis

17. Radix non grata • CIA World Factbook • Woefully outdated, frequently inaccurate • Most junk on Wikipedia • Opinion • Analysis • Outright lunacy • Indexmundi and Nationmaster • Just aggregating from sources you should know anyway (and CIA Factbook) • Whatever random garbage your Google search turned up

18. Collection Mode: Semi-active

19. Representing STRATFOR • At first, consult with senior staff before ‘reaching out’ – we’ll approve your plan. • How to identify yourself • Global intelligence company (mysterious) • Research firm (business focused) • Media/publishing company (innocuous) • Remain courteous, project confidence, speak knowledgeably

20. Combining with Passive • Always have conducted passive gathering first. Remember: SPEAK KNOWLEDGEABLY. • Get calls/emails out as early as you can, then return to passive collection while you wait for response

21. Who To Contact • Reporters • Other academics and researchers • Information desks at government agencies and libraries • Public affairs officers • The appropriate attaché at the embassy • Local business, chamber of commerce, port authority, police department, statistical agency, etc, etc.

22. Finding Contact Info • Websites: About us / Contact us • Academic papers are usually the mother lode of contact info. Check the executive summaries and back covers. • Media articles sometimes have reporters’ email addresses • Referrals

23. Phone or Email? • Phone is often better than email • Harder to ignore • Inject some humanity into the interaction and even lay on a little charm • Email may be more appropriate • Time zone differences • Easier to relay complex data • Combine as appropriate

24. Managing Contacts • Don’t take ‘no’ for an answer – get a referral • Submit full contact info to senior staff for archival • Names, titles, phone numbers, emails, etc • Notes: How helpful? Particular area of expertise?

25. Submitting Research: ground rules

26. Formatting Rules • Learn them once, benefit for the rest of your time here • Senior staff insists on quality • Don’t send a Word doc to do an Excel spreadsheet’s job • Your final product must be accessible • Put yourself in your “client’s” shoes. Would they want to look at your product?

27. Present It Backwards • If you’re asked a question, what is expected? Put it at the top. • Then outline how you got there • Get into the nuts and bolts last

28. CITE CITECITECITECITE • Much of this research will be your legacy at STRATFOR. Please don’t make me throw it away. • Fully document both your sources and methods • Be as specific as possible

29. DATE DATEDATEDATEDATE • I’m tired of typing these slides • Just date everything, okay? • That means individual components, sources, entire documents, everything!

30. Alternative Platforms • Google Earth • ArcGIS/QuantumGIS • Timeline • Slideshow • Mixed • Word/Excel • Earth/Text/Graphics • Whatever makes the information most accessible

31. End notes

32. Real World vs. Academia • Different time management strategies • Academia: Two minutes early same as two days early • Real World: Real gains for early submissions. (Caveat: still has to be right) • “Just get it turned in” is not an option • Citations must be rigorously traced back to their original source

33. How to be Confident in your Research • Read the fine print. Often the very heart of the research will be located there. • Independently verify. This will exponentially boost your confidence. • Assess and re-task multiple times. Running this cycle refines the product. • Become an authority. Go beyond the specific question and into the broader context.

34. READY TO BEGIN?