Public Opinion and Political Action

2. 6 Public Opinion and Political Action

3. Video: The Big Picture 6 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Edwards_Ch06_Public_Opinion_Seg1_v2.html

4. 6 Learning Objectives Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1 Outline how various forms of socialization shape political opinions 6.2

5. 6 Learning Objectives Explain how polls are conducted and what can be learned from them about American public opinion 6.3 Assess the influence of political ideology on Americans’ political thinking and behavior 6.4

6. 6 Learning Objectives Classify forms of political participation into two broad types 6.5 Analyze how public opinion about the scope of government guides political behavior 6.6

7. Video: The Basics 6 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg2_PoliticalOpinion_v2.html

8. Introduction • Public Opinion • The distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues • Demography • The science of population changes • Census • A valuable tool for understanding population changes • Required every 10 years by the Constitution

9. The American People 6.1 • Immigrant Society • American Melting Pot • Regional Shift • Graying of America

10. 6.1 NASCAR and Census advertising

11. Immigrant Society A nation of nations 1 million legal immigrants/year 500,000 illegal immigrants/year 12% of residents foreign-born Waves of immigration Northwest Europe (English, Irish, Scottish, Germans, Scandinavians) Southern and Eastern Europe (Italians, Jews, Poles, Russians) Hispanics (Cuba, Central America, Mexico) Asians (Vietnam, Korea, Philippines, India) 6.1

12. Immigrant Society Restrictions on immigration Open door policy Criminals, prostitutes, lunatics, diseased (1875) Chinese Exclusion Act (1882) Johnson-Reid Immigration Act (1924)-quotas based on national origin Hart-Celler Immigration and Nationality Act (1965) Family integration – good or bad idea? 6.1

13. The American Melting Pot • Melting Pot: the mixing of cultures, ideas, and peoples that has changed the American nation • Minority Majority: the emergence of a non-Caucasian majority • Political culture is an overall set of values widely shared within a society.

14. American Melting Pot (continued) African Americans face a legacy of racism. Hispanics are the largest minority group faced with the problem of illegal immigration. Simpson-Mazzoli Act: requires employers document citizenship of employee Asian immigration has been driven by a new class of professional workers. Native Americans: indigenous and disadvantaged 6.1

15. 6.1 FIGURE 6.1: The coming minority majority

16. American Melting Pot Hispanics-Reluctant immigrants 13% of population 26% still live in poverty Political power increasing 6.1

17. 6.1 Border fence

18. American Melting Pot Political culture and assimilation 6.1

19. Regional Shift Northeast most populous West and South growing since WWII Sun Belt migration Arizona, Texas, Florida Political power of these areas increasing Reapportionment Once each decade, after census 6.1

20. Graying of America Over-65 fastest growing age group People living longer Fertility rate lower Implications for Social Security Ratio changing Politically-sensitive 6.1

21. 6.1 6.1 What kind of regional population shift is America experiencing? From Northeast to Southwest From Northwest to Southeast From Southwest to Northeast From Midwest to Northeast

22. 6.1 6.1 What kind of regional population shift is America experiencing? From Northeast to Southwest From Northwest to Southeast From Southwest to Northeast From Midwest to Northeast

23. Video: In Context 6.1 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg3_PoliticalParticipation_v2.html

24. How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization 6.2 • Process of Political Socialization • Political Learning over a Lifetime

25. Process of Political Socialization Civics class tip of iceberg Family Central role Time and emotional commitment Mass media The new parents (and teachers) Age gap in following politics School Forming civic virtue 6.2

27. Political Learning over a Lifetime Increasing participation with age Party identification strengthens Political behavior is learned-get into the habit of voting, attending rallies, etc. Dangerous-Perception-when you see politicians showing disrespect to each other, you disrespect politicians. 6.2

28. 6.2 FIGURE 6.2: Turnout increases with age

29. 6.2 6.2 What is the most important agent of political socialization in the U.S.? Government Family School Profession

30. 6.2 6.2 What is the most important agent of political socialization in the U.S.? Government Family School Profession

31. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information 6.3 • How Polls Are Conducted • Role of Polls in American Democracy • What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information • Decline of Trust in Government

32. How Polls Are Conducted Sample-small group selected for a survey to be representative of the whole Random sample Sampling error-more people surveyed, the higher the level of confidence. Random digit dialing Cell phones Internet polling-the new way 6.3

33. Roll of Polls in American Democracy Polling as a tool for democracy: pros and cons Gauge opinion between elections-where did we go wrong? Ex. Dems-More faith Rep-More diversity Following rather than leading-If it polls well… Pandering or shaping? Bandwagon effect Exit polls Affect election results Question wording-can be easily manipulated 6.3

34. Do you believe smut peddlers should be protected by the Courts and Congress so they can openly sell pornographic materials to your kids?

35. Exit Polls

36. What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information Americans are uninformed Jeffersonian faith in wisdom of common people unfounded Young people most uninformed Who is responsible for the ill-informed electorate? Is it the schools’ fault? Is it the media’s fault? Paradox of mass politics 6.3

37. Keep in Mind…The Public is Uninformed! • Who controls the US house? • 61% said Democrats • Name the Senate Majority leader? • 34% said Harry Reid • Name the Chief Justice? • 6% said John Roberts • Length of Senate term? • 26% knew it was 6 years • Which party is more Conservative? • 52% answered Republican • What is the party of President Obama? • Okay, 90% knew it

38. Evidence: People Are Stupid & Won’t Admit It! • 39% of Americans want government to “stay out of Medicare.” • (Medicare is a government program.) • In 1998, 32% responded that Tip O’Neill should be impeached from his Speaker’s position. • (Despite one attempt in 1798, members of congress are not subject to impeachment. Moreover, Tip O’Neill died in 1994.) • 29% of people have a view on Wisnians. • (You got me!)

39. Jimmy Kimmel likes to point out how clueless Americans really are. Man on the Street

40. FIGURE 6.3: Many Americans show little knowledge of world geography 6.3

41. Decline of Trust in Government The great slide Vietnam War Watergate Economy/hostage crisis Is public cynicism good? Negative effect on programs for poor 6.3

42. 6.3 FIGURE 6.4: Decline of trust in government, 1958-2012

43. Do you think it should be legal or illegal to use a hand-held cellular telephone while driving a car? • How about a hand-free cellular telephone, which you don’t have to pick up or hold to use? Do you think it should be legal or illegal to use a hands-free cellular telephone while driving a car? • Do you think using a HANDS-FREE cell phone while driving is more safe, less safe, or just the same as using a HAND-HELD cell phone? • Do you think sending a text message while driving, either on a cell phone or other electronic device, should be legal or illegal?

44. 6.3 6.3 What is the problem with exit polls? They are usually inaccurate They don’t poll every voter They influence election results None of the above

45. 6.3 6.3 What is the problem with exit polls? They are usually inaccurate They don’t poll every voter They influence election results None of the above

46. Explore the Simulation: You Are a Polling Consultant 6.3 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_longman_media_1/2013_mpsl_sim/simulation.html?simulaURL=11

47. What Americans Value: Political Ideologies 6.4 • Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives? • Do People Think in Ideological Terms?

48. 6.4 TABLE 6.1: How to tell a liberal from a conservative

49. Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives? Conservatives dominate Identify themselves-41% conservative/21% liberal Younger people less conservative Minorities less conservative Wealthy more conservative Gender gap Religious more conservative 6.4

50. Do People Think in Ideological Terms? Types of voters Ideologues Group benefits Nature of the times No issue content Ideology of limited importance Seen as threat to family 6.4