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2015 Spring Flood Outlook

2015 Spring Flood Outlook. National Weather Service Valley/Omaha National Weather Service Sioux Falls. Outline. Area of focus is: the Missouri River from Gavins Point to Rulo . Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa Review of Past Weather Current state of the basin

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2015 Spring Flood Outlook

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  1. 2015 Spring Flood Outlook National Weather Service Valley/Omaha National Weather Service Sioux Falls

  2. Outline • Area of focus is: • the Missouri River from Gavins Point to Rulo. • Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa • Review of Past Weather • Current state of the basin • Weather forecast for the next four weeks • Spring Flood Outlook

  3. What you need to know • The potential for flooding this Spring can be characterized as near to below normal. • However… • There is a corridor along and south of I-80 (in Iowa and Nebraska) where soil moistures are relatively high. • Persistent rains in this area would lead to flooding much quicker than other areas.

  4. Past Precipitation

  5. Past PrecipitationSince September 1st

  6. Past PrecipitationSince November 1st

  7. Plains Snowpack

  8. Mountain SnowpackMissouri River Headwaters

  9. Mountain SnowpackPlatte River Headwaters • By March 1st, around 80% of the mountain snowpack has accumulated.

  10. Mountain SnowpackPlatte River Headwaters

  11. Missouri Basin Runoff Forecast

  12. Frost Depths

  13. Latest River Conditions • During the winter months flow values are hard to come by due to ice effects. • Most rivers going into freeze-up were tracking near to above normal. • The Missouri River is above normal due to slightly elevated increases from Gavins Point.

  14. Weather Forecast through March 16

  15. Beyond March 18Low confidence forecast

  16. Spring Flood OutlookWhere is there a 90% chance of flooding?

  17. Spring Flood OutlookWhere is there a 50% chance of flooding?

  18. Spring Flood OutlookWhere is there a 25% chance of flooding?

  19. Spring Flood OutlookWhere is there a 10% chance of flooding?

  20. Spring Flood OutlookWhere is there a 5% chance of flooding?

  21. Summary • The overall spring flood threat is near to below normal, however… • Along and south of I-80 is an area to watch due to high soil moistures. • This outlook only covers through June 3rd. • A low Plains snow cover and overall lack of significant late fall/winter precipitation keeps the overall threat low. • Still a lot of time to accumulate mountain snowpack, need to monitor this. I will provide another update, via email, in two weeks.

  22. Questions? • Contact Information • David Pearson • NWS Omaha/Valley • david.pearson@noaa.gov • 402-359-5732 • Michael Gillispie • NWS Sioux Falls • michael.gillispie@noaa.gov • 605-330-4247 x493

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