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Peak Oil – Myth or Menace?

Peak Oil – Myth or Menace?. Models to help understand peak oil Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton. Chautauqua Course, May 24-26, 2007. US-48 Production. Alaska to the Rescue?. US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov. US. Indonesia. UK. Iran?. Venezuela.

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Peak Oil – Myth or Menace?

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  1. Peak Oil – Myth or Menace? Models to help understand peak oil Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton Chautauqua Course, May 24-26, 2007

  2. US-48 Production

  3. Alaska to the Rescue? US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov

  4. US Indonesia UK Iran? Venezuela Many Countries Have Peaked! http://www.bp.com

  5. Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)

  6. OPEC Proved Crude Oil Reserves Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates

  7. Gaussian

  8. Gaussian Fit to US Production

  9. Peak Models USGS BP

  10. Cumulative Discovery and Production

  11. www.ihs.com US Geological Survey Estimates Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy30 (2002)

  12. Rough Outline of the Future • USGS published reserve estimates in 1998 • EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future growth • A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2030 • Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >17 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources

  13. dQ = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞) dt Logistic Curve “Economic” argument: We will always find more and increase ultimate recovered amount 1980 Prediction

  14. Problem with Logistic Curves At early stages, curves for widely differing total amounts may look very similar. There are too many free fitting parameters

  15. The Point Remains …

  16. Hubbert Linearization P = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞) Q (Gbbl) http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/11/6047/13568

  17. HL - Texas

  18. HL - World

  19. One Prediction (1998) R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,” Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf

  20. Duncan and Youngquist Predictions

  21. Finding Norways R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf

  22. 2/3 ! Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert”

  23. Keep Watching…

  24. Summary • Believe “official predictions” • Gaussian fitting • Logistic model • Cumulative • Yearly • Linearization • Country-by-country watch • Monthly data

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