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Francisco Chavez, M. Messie Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

Utilizing remote sensing, modeling and data assimilation to sustain and protect fisheries: ecological forecasting at work. Francisco Chavez, M. Messie Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute. F. Chai (U of Maine), Y. Chao (NASA/JPL), David Foley (NOAA/NMFS), and R.T. Barber (Duke). Approach.

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Francisco Chavez, M. Messie Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

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  1. Utilizing remote sensing, modeling and data assimilation to sustain and protect fisheries: ecological forecasting at work Francisco Chavez, M. Messie Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute F. Chai (U of Maine), Y. Chao (NASA/JPL), David Foley (NOAA/NMFS), and R.T. Barber (Duke)

  2. Approach • Develop remote sensing products for fisheries decision support systems • Develop strong theoretical basis for forecasting using in situ and satellite data • Develop 50 year model hindcasts and test theory • Develop 2-9 month model forecasts and incorporate into fisheries decision support systems

  3. MODIS chlorophyll - first biological parameter explicitly included in the CPC report Mean trend Mean Trend Anomaly Anomaly Dave Foley, NOAA

  4. Science at the leading and/or bleeding edge Why Peru? Long term (9 month) forecasts of chlorophyll

  5. Progress in Oceanography 2008

  6. More fish (total and per unit primary production) than any other place in the world!

  7. Change? SST 1880 - 2006 Two Primary States SSH 1983 – 2006 black line Varia- bility

  8. Regional Ocean Model Systems (ROMS)-CoSiNE CoSiNE: Carbon, Silicate, and Nitrogen Ecosystem (Chai and Chao) Eddy-Resolving Ocean Model at 12-km

  9. Pacific Basin ROMS-CoSINE (12-km) SimulationAnnual Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Modeled SST (oC) Satellite SST (oC) 10

  10. Zooplankton(ROMS-CoSINE) Averaged from 1991-2007 by ROMS-CoSINE (blended wind forcing)

  11. SST 50 year 50 km hindcast simulation Data Model

  12. Data Model SST Sea level

  13. Large regime shift documented in Monterey Bay, CA

  14. EGGS DURATION: 24 HR MORTALITY RATE>99% YOLK-SAC LARVE LEN: 2-4MM DURATION: 24-28 HR MORTALITY RATE 80%-98% AGE-2+ LIFE SPAN ~3 YR PREDATOR: SEA BIRDS, MARINE MAMMALS FIRST-FEEDER FEED BY PHYTOPL. LEN: 4.25CM, WT: ~2 gm DURATION: 80 DAYS AGE-2 LEN: ~20CM WT: ~55 gm OPT TEMP: 18.6°C SPAWN ~20 TIMES/YR AGE-1(JUVENILE) BECOME SEXUAL MATRUE LEN: 8-10CM WT: ~10 gm ROMS-CoSINE (12 km) Temperature, Currents, Plankton ROMS-CoSINE (12 km) Temperature, Currents, Plankton Life Cycle of Peruvian Anchovy Individual Based Model with ROMS-CoSINE Yi Xu, U of Maine ROMS-CoSINE (12 km) Temperature, Currents, Plankton ROMS-CoSINE (12 km) Temperature, Currents, Plankton

  15. Anchovy Distribution Statistics • Start with same amount of eggs • Release eggs each year/month • Calculate the total survivors after 6 months with spatial distribution • Temperature and food (phyto+zoo) control survivorship

  16. Anchovy Distribution Averaged from 1991-2007 by IBM

  17. Latitudinal direction

  18. Next steps • Continue to improve forecasts and insert into DSS • Retrospective analysis to get at mechanisms behind changes • Clearly identified changes in the ecosystem – 1972 anchoveta decline, sardine increase, 1989 anchoveta recovery and sardine decline, 1992 humboldt squid appearance-jack mackerel/hake disappearance, 1998 appearance of cool water species

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