ADVANCES IN THE SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF THE YAQUI RIVER RESERVOIRS SYSTEM

1. ADVANCES IN THE SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF THE YAQUI RIVER RESERVOIRS SYSTEM OCTOBER 20, 2003

2. ACTUAL WATER RESOURCES PROBLEM

3. PRECIPITATION IN YAQUI RIVER UPPER BASIN (mm)(1968-2003) 518.5 PRECIPITATION (mm) 355.5 YEARS

4. DEVIATION FROM AVERAGE PRECIPITATION (mm)(1968-2003) DEVIATION FROM MEDIAN PRECIPITATION (mm) YEARS

5. DROUGHT INDEX USING “SPI” METHOD (1968-2003) DROUGHT

6. HISTORICAL RESERVOIR INFLOW AND OUTFLOW IN YAQUI BASIN (MCM).(1965-2003) MEDIAN 3085 ANNUAL RESERVOIR INFLOW (MCM) MEDIAN 2842

7. DEVIATION FROM MEDIAN RESERVOIR INFLOW (MCM) (1965-2003) DEVIATION FROM MEDIAN RESERVOIR INFLOW (MCM) DROUGHT MEDIAN 2842 YEARS

8. HISTORICAL RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFLOW vs OUTFLOW) IN YAQUI BASIN (MCM)(1965-2003) 5,401.8 MCM 10,622.0 MCM -2,905.0 MCM

9. STORAGE VOLUME OF WATER IN YAQUI RESERVOIR SYSTEM, OCTOBER 1ST (MCM)(1965-2003) (3,084 (MCM) 74 % FROM AVERAGE 4189 MCM 1105 YEARS

10. YAQUI RIVER RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT1994-2003(VOLUME OF STORED WATER AT THE END OF THE MONTH IN MCM) 1994 1995 1996 1105 DEAD STORAGE 2003 MONTHS

11. AVAILABLE VOLUME OF WATER FOR THE AGRICULTURAL YEAR 2003-2004. (OCTOBER 1ST, 2003).

12. CAUSES

13. SUSTAINABILITY CRITERIA • The World Commission on Environment and Development (Bruntland, WECD, 1987) defines sustainability as: • “Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of the future generations to meet their own needs”.

14. SHORT-TERM MODEL (FIRST YEAR, 2002) • OBJECTIVE FUNCTION (MAXIMIZE PROFITS) • RESERVOIR STORAGE CONSTRAINTS • RELEASES CONSTRAINTS • CONTINUITY CONSTRAINTS • IRRIGATION CONSTRAINTS • MARKETING CONSTRAINTS

15. SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT MODEL. • MODELING SUSTAINABILITY IN THE YAQUI BASIN REQUIRES SPECIFYING THE RELATIONS BETWEEN WATER USES IN THE PRESENT AND THEIR LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES,

16. LONG-TERM MODEL(SECOND YEAR, 2003) • RISK CRITERIA a).- Reliability b).- Vulnerability c).- Reversibility • EQUITY CRITERIA

17. EQUITY CRITERION • EQUITY CRITERION IS USED IN THE MODEL TO: 1.- ENSURE THAT WATER USE BENEFITS ARE NON-DECREASING IN ALL YEARS. 2.- ENSURE THAT PEOPLE AT DIFFERENT YEARS HAVE EQUITABLE ACCESS TO WATER SUPPLY FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND M&I USE.

18. LONG-TERM OBJECTIVE FUNCTION WHERE Ss= Sustainability indicator of the Yaqui Reservoir system s = System index

19. DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS • THE PLANNING HORIZON MODELED IS 15 YEARS, FROM 1993 TO 2008. • FROM 1993 TO 2003 REAL DATA WAS USED. • THE SAME CROP PATTERN WAS USED DURING THE PLANNING HORIZON, WHERE THE MAJOR CROPS ARE WHEAT, MAIZE, OILSEEDS, COTTON, SOYBEANS, ALFALFA AND FRUITS. • CROP YIELD, CROP PRICE, AND CROP COSTS WERE USED TO ESTIMATE ECONOMIC BENEFITS. • THE SAME TOTAL IRRIGATION DISTRICT EFFICIENCY WAS USED DURING THE PLANNING HORIZON. • REAL DATA FROM THE AQUIFER WAS USED. • REAL RESERVOIRS INFLOW WAS USED THE FIRST 10 YEARS, USING DRY SCENARIOS FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS. • FIVE DIFFERENT LEVELS OF OPERATION (MINIMUM) ARE USED; 900, 2000, 2500, 2800 AND THE REAL SCENARIO.

20. PRELIMINARY RESULTS

21. STORAGE VOLUME AT OCTOBER 1ST MINIMUM OPERATION LEVELS (JUNE)

22. AVAILABLE VOLUME OF SURFACE WATER IN YAQUI VALLEY, OCTOBER 1ST(103 CUBIC METERS) MINIMUM OPERATION LEVELS (JUNE)

23. AREA PLANTED WITH DIFFERENT CROPS IN YAQUI VALLEY MINIMUM OPERATION LEVELS (JUNE)

24. SUSTAINABILITY INDEX FOR DIFFERENT RESERVOIRS MANAGEMENT LEVELS.

25. 3220 106 m3 2800 106 m3

26. TOTAL AGRICULTURAL NET ECONOMIC BENEFITS UNDER DIFFERENT RESERVOIRS MANAGEMENT LEVELS **Source: SAGARPA

27. PROGRAM FOR THE YEAR 2004 • INCLUDE IN THE LONG-TERM MODEL THE NEXT SUSTAINABLE INDICES: 1.- HYDRAULIC INFRASTRUCTURE SUSTAINABILITY. 2.- ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY (SOIL AND WATER QUALITY). 3.- ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY. • TO DEVELOP SUSTAINABLE RESERVOIR OPERATION RULES. • INCLUDE THE STOCHASTICITY OF THE RANDOM VARIABLES USING MONTECARLO SIMULATION. • TO DEVELOP A LONG-TERM DROUGHT PLAN.

28. MUCHAS GRACIAS