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Population and demographic trends in Papua New Guinea

Population and demographic trends in Papua New Guinea. 1. Outline. Introduction Population and development Policy perspectives on population in PNG Population growth and distribution Urbanization Fertility Mortality Future population trends Selected baseline indicators. 2. Introduction.

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Population and demographic trends in Papua New Guinea

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  1. Population and demographic trends in Papua New Guinea

  2. 1. Outline • Introduction • Population and development • Policy perspectives on population in PNG • Population growth and distribution • Urbanization • Fertility • Mortality • Future population trends • Selected baseline indicators

  3. 2. Introduction • Introduces the need to position the population in sustainable development • Reflects on the need for more inclusive decision making, planning and implementation of development programs, including their monitoring and evaluation.

  4. 3. Population and development • Complex relationship • Both affect each other

  5. 4. Policy perspectives • PNGNPP1 – 1991 • PNGNPP2 – 2000

  6. 5. Population growth and distribution • 2.2 – 2.7 per cent • Varies by province

  7. 5. Population growth and distribution (cont.) • 11 per sq km – crude density (2000) • 86 per sq km – arable land density (2000) • Varies by province

  8. 6. Urbanization

  9. 7. Fertility

  10. 7. Fertility (cont.)

  11. 8. Mortality

  12. 8. Mortality (cont.) • Variations by sex • Urban-rural variations • Regional and provincial variations

  13. 9. Future population trends • In 2020: High = 8009000; Medium = 7873000; Low = 7818000

  14. 10. Selected baseline indicators • The country’s growth rate is 2.2 per cent in 2010 • The rate of urbanization is 15 per cent (2000) • Population density is currently 14 people per sq km (using the total land area) but far higher than this when calculated per sq km of arable land (about 107 people per sq km in 2010) • The total fertility rate was 4.1 children per woman of child bearing age in 2006 and is assumed to be at the same level in 2010

  15. 10. Selected baseline indicators (cont.) • Mortality declines are moderate or stagnant with life expectancy at birth estimated to be 54.2, 53.7 and 54.8 years for both sexes, males and females respectively in 2000 (being 53.0, 52.5 and 53.6 for rural areas, and 59.6, 59.0 and 60.3 for urban areas respectively) • The infant mortality rate was 58, 60 and 57 per 1000 for both sexes, males and females respectively in 2006 • Maternal mortality was estimated to 733 per 100000 in 2006, reflecting maternal risks of about 15 years before the survey

  16. Thank you

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