Population studies and theories

1. Population studies and theories

2. Real Development is about people… • …or is it time for them to die? • During a discussion about overpopulation between Dr Susan Blackmore (a neuroscientist) and Professor John Gray (of the London School of Economics), Dr Blackmore said on BBC Radio: “the fundamental problem" facing the planet today is that "there are too many people". Professor Gray agreed. Then Dr Blackmore declared: "For the planet's sake, I hope we have bird flu or some other thing that will reduce the population, because otherwise we're doomed."

3. Doomed…to develop? • Are neo-Malthusians – such as dr. Blackmore right or wrong about population growth? • Are they, like Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) and his followers, making the schoolboy error of treating population growth as the only variant, and everything else – food production, progress, human ingenuity – as fixed entities? • Malthusians are motivated by severe pessimism about humanity's ability to come up with solutions to its problems, and by the base idea that disease is the only thing that can sort us out.

4. Envisioning the future • Whether neo-Malthusians or followers of the transitiontheory are right, indicators are key.

5. Human development and economic growth Economist tend to look at the GDP of a country in order to measure it’s development. What can we say about economic development and human development?

6. Human development and economic growth Combine indicators in order to get a more complete picture

7. Economic indicators

8. HDI:Multi-indicators of development

9. HDI:Multi-indicator of development Goalposts for calculating the HDI max. min. Life exp. at birth 85 25 Adult literary rate 100 0 Combined gross enrollment ratio(%) 100 0 GDP per capita (PPP US $) 40,000 100

10. HDI:Multi-indicators of development Life expectancy index = (73-25) / (85-25) = 0.80 Education index = 2/3 adult literacy index + 1/3 Gross enrollment index = 0.93 EI = (96.5-0)/ (100-0) = 0.965 GEI = (85-0)/(100-0) = 0.85 GDP index = log (25,164) – log (100) / log (40,000) – log (100) Result: HDI = 0.88 for Aruba • HDI of Aruba, 2000 till 2007 • Female HDI: 0.90, male HDI 0.86

11. ` HPI-1: Multi-indicator of poverty HDI measures average achievement, HPI-1 measures deprivations in the three basic dimensions of human development captured in the HDI . A long and healthy life – vulnerability to death at a relatively to early age, as measured by the probability at birth of not surviving to age 40. Knowledge – Exclusion from the world of reading and communications, as measured by the adult illiteracy rate. A decent standard of living, as measured as the % of the population without sustainable access to an improved water source and the % of children under weight for age.

12. HPI-2: Poverty-index for richer countries HPI-2 measures deprivations in the same dimensions as the HPI-1, and also captures social exclusion. It reflects deprivations in four dimensions: A long and healthy life – vulnerability to death at a relatively to early age, as measured by the probability at birth of not surviving to age 60. Knowledge – Exclusion from the world of reading and communications, as measured by the % of adults lacking functional literacy A decent standard of living, as measured by the % of people below the income poverty line SocialExclusion – as measured by the rate of long-term unemployment (12 month+)

13. Population study: demography, Growth and structure of Human Population Demography is the study of population, its increase through births and immigration, and its decrease through deaths and emigration. In a broader sense, demography is the study of population change and of the impact of these changes on the world around us.

14. Population study. Two main theories: Malthus and the transition theorie Thomas Robert Malthus was a British economist and demographer, whose famous Theory of Population highlighted the potential dangers of overpopulation. In his famous An Essay on the Principles of Population, Malthus stated that while 'the populations of the world would increase in geometric proportions the food resources available for them would increase only in arithmetic proportions‘ Two types of checks hold population within resource limits: positive checks, which raise the death rate; and preventative ones, which lower the birth rate.

15. Population study. Two main theories: Malthus and the transition theory The demographic transition (DT) is a model used to represent the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. In stage one, pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates are high and roughly in balance. In stage two, that of a developing country, the death rates drop rapidly. In stage three, birth rates fall due to access to contraception, an increase in the status and education of women, a reduction in the value of children's work, During stage four there are both low birth rates and low death rates. Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level

16. Population study. Malthus versus Transition? Criticism Some critics of Malthus, like Karl Marx, argued that Malthus failed to recognize the potential of human population to increase food supply. Malthus is accused by many to have failed to comprehend man's ability to use science and technology to increase food supply to meet the needs of an increasing population. ROME, 20 August 2002 -- Globally there will be enough food for a growing world population by the year 2030, but hundreds of millions of people in developing countries will remain hungry and many of the environmental problems caused by agriculture will remain serious, according to the summary report of "World agriculture: towards 2015/2030", a study launched by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

17. Population study. Source of data? Population statistics are usually collected via: censuses, surveys, civil registration systems,… The accuracy of the data depends on the source, and the methods in place to secure the reliability of the data. For civil registration for example official documents Surveys need to be weighted to the total population, an accurate sample frame containing the total population is necessary; Censuses and Surveys need to be controlled and edited, valid value checks, consistency checks, and routing checks, and maybe imputations.

18. Population study: Crude birth rate. Crude Birth Rate: the number of life births per 1000 population CBR =

19. Population study: General Fertility Rate General Fertility Rate: the number of life births per 1000 women aged 15-49 GFR = Calculate the General Fertility rate for the year 2009 in Aruba: The number of women aged 15-49: 28552 Number of children born: 1251

20. Population study: Crude death Rate Crude Death Rate: the number of deaths per 1000 population in a given year CDR = Is the Crude Death Rate higher in 2009, 2000 or in 1992 ? Population Deaths 1992: 70,629 424 2000: 91,064 531 2009: 107,138 623

21. Population study: Natural increase & infant mortality rate Natural increase is the surplus of births over deaths for a particular period NI = Number of births in a given year – number of deaths in a given year. Infant Mortality rate: Infant mortality rate is the number of deaths of infants under one year of age, per 1000 live births, in a given period. IMR =

22. Population study: Life expectancy Life expectancy is an estimate of the average number of additional years a person may expect to live, based on the age-specific death rates for a given year.

23. Population study: Life expectancy and health condition Based on the Census 2000 we calculated the percentage of males and females living in poor health. The percentage of females in poor health is higher than that of males, just because they outnumber the males in life-expectancy

24. Population study: Migration Two types of international migration: immigration and emigration IR = IR = Migration = immigration – emigration

25. Population study: Migration What can we deduct from this graph?

26. . Population study: population growth Population growth is the result of mutations with regard to births, deaths, immigration and emigration PGR = Calculate: 1) death rate, 2) birth rate, 3) natural growth rate, 4) emigration rate, 5) immigration rate, 6) net migration rate, 7) net population growth

27. . Population study: population indicators Changes in population structure and composition affects consumption pattern, health-expenditures, educational system, labor force, pension-systems, infrastructure, housing, marriages, etc. To monitor changes and capture the intensity of changes, we can use indicators, such as: • Ageing index • Youth dependency ratio • Old-age dependency ratio • Dependency ratio • Potential Support Ratio (PSR) • Parent Support Ratio

28. . Population study: population indicators Population growth is the result of mutations with regard to births, deaths, immigration and emigration

29. . Population study: population indicators

30. . Population study: population indicators

31. Population study: Life expectancy in Aruba and other parts of the world

32. Population study: example use of Census Labor force participation rates, for males and females