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South Carolina Sentencing Reform Commission Projecting the Impact of Our Proposed Reforms

South Carolina Sentencing Reform Commission Projecting the Impact of Our Proposed Reforms. John Speir, Ph.D. Applied Research Services, Inc. June 27, 2009. Defining a Projected Impact.

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South Carolina Sentencing Reform Commission Projecting the Impact of Our Proposed Reforms

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  1. South Carolina Sentencing Reform Commission Projecting the Impact of Our Proposed Reforms John Speir, Ph.D. Applied Research Services, Inc. June 27, 2009

  2. Defining a Projected Impact “Designed not to predict what will happen… but rather explore what would happen if assumptions unfold in different ways...” Donella Meadows “Thinking in Systems: A Primer”, 2008

  3. Why Forecast the Future? How Do We Know our Reforms will Work? • Conduct legislative & policy impact analyses • Assess the impact of resources on efficiency and operations

  4. Projections… • Assess financial impact of agency, court, & legislative decisions

  5. Simulation… • Answer “what if” questions • Can test every aspect of a proposed change • Can explore new policies or operating procedures without the expense & disruption of experimenting on the real system

  6. Simulation… • Reduces the emotion associated with hard decisions • What is the probability associated with possible consequences? (also called a risk profile) • With uncertainty, policy-makers will invariably get different results with forecast

  7. What is Micro-Simulation? • Actual offender records are read into the model: Past Admissions & Active Inmates • Inmate records are “re-built” based on policy scenario • Create a new sentence or LOS outcome for any policy group of interest

  8. Flow of Offenders Through the Model Past Inmate Admissions 2008-09 What Do We Know? Uncertainty?? • Mandatory minimums • 2. Inmates who have already been released • Past institutional behavior and projected release date • Past Board Decisions • Past Institutional Conduct • Historical Sentencing & time-served • Future Admissions • Future Parole Board decisions • Future Institutional conduct among active • Inmates –with extended prison terms • Product failure (returns to prison) • Demographics • Prior History • Current Offense • Sentence Length • Geography • Parole Data • Admission Type • Etc.

  9. Known Outcomes & Residual Uncertainty 85% - No Parole Mandatory Minimums Already Released Inmates Historical max out LOS for Short-term inmates Simulated Estimates Needed Future conduct for long stay inmates Board Decisions Change in Admissions: New Admits Or Revocations

  10. How Do You Project Future Admissions? • History: SCDC Inmate Admits • 2005: 13,234 • 2006: 13,397 • 2007: 13,906 • 2008: 13,950

  11. Future admissions are still a major uncertainty But We look for collateral data and methods/tools to help project the future (status quo)

  12. What about proposals without any historical data? • Pennsylvania: High Speed chase law was split into two groups. • High Speed chase • High speed chase under the influence or involves an out-of-state pursuit

  13. Review CCH or Sentencing Report • What percent (%) were charged/convicted of a DUI • What percent (%) occurred in out an out-of-state jurisdiction • We set up a range (35% to 45%) and ran the model hundreds of times to identify the most likely impact

  14. Think in Terms of What-if Policy Scenarios & Policy Groups

  15. Policy Scenarios & Policy Groups • What would happen if we could divert just 15% of the inmates with a specific offense and profile? • What would happen if we used the prison term instead of the total sentence to set the parole eligibility date?

  16. Think in Terms of What-if Policy Scenarios & Policy Groups • Judges used a bench book summarizing state sentencing practices and judges sentenced just 30% of the sentences in the middle sentencing range? • What if we could divert simple drug users from prison?

  17. Strategy • Create a status quo projection that take into account anticipated changes in prison admissions • Status quo projection serves as the baseline for all proposed reforms • (individually and collectively)

  18. Strategy • Define the proposals and policy groups sufficiently to assign a cost estimate • Example: Driving under suspension would be a minimum security bed • Each proposal is evaluated using conservative estimates and is simulated hundreds of times using different error rates

  19. Visit our web site at www.ars-corp.com or call (404) 881-1120

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