1 / 23

PALESTINIAN FACTIONS AND PROSPECTS FOR GOVERNANCE: PLO, FATAH, HAMAS.

PALESTINIAN FACTIONS AND PROSPECTS FOR GOVERNANCE: PLO, FATAH, HAMAS. Dr. Maggio GLS-220. Fatah The head of the Palestinian national movement since the 1950’s. Full name :

nonnie
Download Presentation

PALESTINIAN FACTIONS AND PROSPECTS FOR GOVERNANCE: PLO, FATAH, HAMAS.

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. PALESTINIAN FACTIONS AND PROSPECTS FOR GOVERNANCE: PLO, FATAH, HAMAS. Dr. Maggio GLS-220

  2. FatahThe head of the Palestinian national movement since the 1950’s • Full name: Reverse acronym of Harakat al-Tahrir al-Filistiniya (Palestinian Liberation Movement) meaning "conquest" in Arabic • Prime Minister: Salam Fayyad; President: Mahmoud Abbas (Abu-Mazen) • Origins and development: • a political party founded by PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) • Established by Yasser Arafat in the 1950s to promote the armed struggle to liberate all Palestine from Israeli control • In the 70’s, wanted to build a ‘secular’ state that would derive its laws from international conventions and human rights standards

  3. Fatah… continue • 1990’s – Israel-Palestine Oslo peace accords • lost power in the 2006 elections to Hamas • Attitude to Israel: • critic of armed resistance • Goal • Establishment of Palestinian state

  4. HamasPalestinian main Islamist movement – in Gaza since late 1970’s • Full name: Acronym for Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiya (Islamic Resistance Movement) and means "zeal" in Arabic. • Headof Hamas in Gaza: Head of Hamas Foreign Affairs: • Ismail Haniya Haled Mshal • Armed wing: • the Izzedine al-Qassam brigades • Attitude to Israel • Destruction • Origins and development: • Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood • Founded by Sheik Ahmad Yassin • Started as a social reform movement – focused on Education, welfare and community • Declared itself as Hamas in the early months of the first Intifada, 1987 • Changed it’s approach and became a political movement that challenged FATAH • Got Israel’s support • Increase of popularity as an Islamist movement. PA repressive and unproductive power leads to productive resistance by Islamists and Hamas • 2006 elections – massive win but not recognized by Israel and international mediators • Designated a terrorist organization by Israel, U.S. and the European Union. • To conclude – Hamas can be seen as a highly programmatic organization. Changes strategies according to Changing political environment.

  5. Current Status – Causes and overview • Oslo Agreement – Palestinian’s view of PLO as the guardian of Israeli security. • PA poor performance => dissatisfaction and disappointment => justice can be achieved through Islamic laws. • Hamas is seen as the only force willing to stand up to the enemy. • Recent events: • Two Separate cabinets • Reconciliation talks

  6. ? What now? Possible Scenarios:

  7. Scenario 1: Two states through war. • Tensions continue to mount as talks between Fatah and Israel continue. • Hamas continues to make attacks against Israel and Israel continues small scale military actions against Hamas. • Eventually it becomes too much and Israel declares a full scale war against Hamas and invades the Gaza Strip.

  8. Fatah condemns the actions of Hamas and sides with Israel. • It does this to secure a stronger seat at the negotiating table with Israel and as a way to cement relations between the two. • Fatah sees little to any military action in the war given its relative strength and position in the West Bank.

  9. Hamas does not have the strength to stand up to Israel in a conventional sense and has to engage in guerilla warfare to survive. • Hamas will receive help from groups like Hezbollah who seek the destruction of Israel. • This will put Iran in a delicate position. To join in or not to join in? How will this affect the United States?

  10. Eventually the Israeli army will be able to shut down Hamas by placing the Gaza Strip under a tight military occupation. • For its cooperation and support during the war and its stance on peace with Israel, Fatah will be allowed to set up a democratic Palestinian state in the West Bank. • The Gaza Strip will remain under Israeli control until Israel can be sure that there are no remnants of Hamas there, or any insurgents.

  11. Scenario 2: Democratic Palestine and Islamic Emirate of Gaza If Israel and the U.S. are not able to eliminate Hamas, it is also likely that a Palestinian state will be created in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip may evolve into an “Islamic Emirate of Gaza”.

  12. Political and Factional Situation • Israel and U.S. will welcome a Palestinian state in the West Bank controlled by the Palestinian National Authority • The vast ideological differences between Hamas and Fatah, Hamas’ Fundamentalist Islamic Agenda and its substantial support from Palestinians and neighboring nations will result in an Islamic state run by Hamas in the Gaza strip

  13. Social and Religious Situation • Tensions between Israel and Gaza and tensions between West Bank and Gaza • Tensions between Palestinians and Israeli settlers in the West Bank • Religious tensions among Palestinians highly unlikely, unless the political leadership of the West Bank pursue secularism in government, this might create tension between the PA and fundamentalist Islamic groups (ex. Islamic Jihad)

  14. Economic Situation • Major reforms must be made in the West Bank and Gaza strip to improve its economy, infrastructure and social services • A great amount of funds/loans will be necessary from outside sources (United Nations for PA and Iran & Hezbollah and possibly Egypt for Gaza?)

  15. Realities • Several reasons for why this scenario may not work: • Israel will not allow an Islamic Emirate of Gaza • PA and Fatah government may be overthrown • Other radical political factions may gain support

  16. Scenario 3: • Creation of West Bank into country • Run by Fatah for 5 year period • Democratic elections set up after 5 year period • Palestinian “Homestead” • Officially recognized by world, UN • Receives aid from UN

  17. Gaza Strip does not become a country • Still under control of Israel + Palestinian gov’t • Hamas continues existence • Peace talks • Embargo’s remain • Become a country once Hamas gives up arms + level of violence goes down.

  18. Gaza Strips forms own “Palestinian State” • Recognized by UN + rest of world • Receives aid from UN • Separate from West Bank’s State • Gov’t separate

  19. Summing Up • 3 Scenarios • Ranging from warfare to negotiation • All of which try to make sense of an exceedingly complex and volatile situation

  20. Also of note • Hamas and Fatah are the main players, but not the only players • Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (Secular and Marxist) • Islamic Jihad Movement • Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine

  21. Chances for Cooperation? • More factions = more specific and diverse views get a voice • But that also means the differing sides are all the more entrenched

  22. What scenario will work for Palestine and a Peaceful Middle East? Who can make this happen?

More Related