Climate variability and freshwater – can we adapt?

1. Climate variability and freshwater – can we adapt? David L. Feldman School of Social Ecology University of California, Irvine National Taipei University Taipei, Taiwan December 20, 2012

2. Introduction • Adaptation –deliberate measures to enhance humankind’s ability to manage water supply, attenuate demand in face of climate uncertainty. • Different from prevention or mitigation. • Requires imaginative management. • Requires co-production of knowledge. • Why adapt? Regions experiencing periodic drought or flood are likely to see worse extremes in future.

3. Is climate change real? • It’s like asking “whether steroids helped a baseball player hit a home run in the bottom of the 9th inning of the World Series.” • If the player was able to hit home runs before taking steroids, it would be impossible to know whether any particular home run could be traced directly to performance-enhancing drugs. • However, at the end of the season, it would be clear that the player hit home runs more often. • “That’s what we have here . . . we’ve juiced the world's climate system by putting these gases in the atmosphere.” • Source: Anthony Leiserowitz, Yale Project on Climate Change, October 2012).

4. Climate change – projected impacts Source: IPCC, 2007

5. Evidence of climate variability Lake Mead (Colorado River, USA) water levels: 1935 - present Elephant Butte Reservoir (Rio Grande, USA): 2000 - 2012 Polar Ice pack shrinkage: 1979 – 2008 (NRDC

6. Climate variability and Taiwan – one illustration Source: Ts’ui-jung Liu, Institute of Taiwan History, Academia Sinica, October 2011

7. Some compelling challenges

8. Three venues for adaptation Cities – water supply and flooding River basins – drought, flooding, collaboration among users. International activities – diffusing innovation.

9. Los Angeles– adaptation • Since 1970s, has emphasized conservation – average daily demands same as 1980, despite 1.1 million more people (in county). • Storm-water capture, wastewater reuse being actively explored. • Climate change explicitly embraced in regional plans (i.e., Metropolitan Water District). Questions posed: • How will climate change affect water rights acquired from regional agricultural users? • How might seismic events disrupt aqueducts & compound climate impacts?

10. Tokyo – adaptation • Despite household conservation efforts, per capita consumption has increased steadily since 1980s. • Explicit concern with climate variability influencing responses; e.g., • Wastewater reuse being introduced on large-scale • Storm-water harvesting for non-potable needs – gardens, parks. • Restrictions on groundwater withdrawals.

11. Mexico City – adaptation • One of world’s largest, fastest growing megacities, (>20 million) • Plans long underway to adapt to growing water demands now being adjusted for climate change • Additional water transfers to recharge aquifers. • Reduce residential water demand – 20% reduction goal. • Greater use of reclaimed wastewater for local agriculture and non-potable uses. • Storm-water capture for groundwater recharge.

12. Taipei – flood adaptation • Typhoons/rainstorms often occur in summer. • Mudflows & landslides arise in sloped areas of metro area. • Flooding a critical issue. • Strategies – improve agricultural drainage, upstream water and soil conservation, improve urban drainage system Source: Fei-Yu Kuo, Department of Urban and Housing Development, Council of Economic Planning & Development , Taiwan

13. Hadejia-Jama'are Basin

14. Hadejia-Jama’are Basin – adaptation challenges • Climate variability – recurrent problems. • Basin residents rely on subsistence farming, small scale fisheries. • In 1970s two major dams built to ensure irrigation supply, flood control – generated unanticipated “cascading” impacts: • Silt backed-up behind dams; water released earlier to dilute silt. • Earlier releases led to downstream floods. • Floods encouraged infestation of typha grass, clogging streams. • Agriculture and local fisheries declined. • Farmers compensated by digging small channels to reduce floods; led to more erosion, lower agricultural productivity.

15. Empowerment, capacity-building, adaptation • 2002 – World Conservation Union, UK partnered with Nigeria to “build local water resources management capacity” in basin – Joint Wetlands Livelihood project. • Goals: Improve use of local knowledge, introduce pilot projects, demonstrate best-management practices to restore economy & local ecology: • Coordinate projects among different levels of government, preserve existing floodplain income from farming, grazing, non-timber forest products, fishing. • Preserve wetlands to restore dry-season grazing, groundwater recharge, waterfowl habitat – during drought. • Provide local level forums comprised of farmers, women’s groups, others – engage in community-level training, apply local knowledge.

16. Participatory innovations Break-out discussions – comparing solutions and reaching accord – JWL Hadejia office, Dauchi, Nigeria. Watershed management “game” – farmers serve as students, role-play solutions to local problems – Session 1 – users brainstorm methods to maintain income and production with less water. Session 2 – users prioritize methods by voting – results become basis for by-laws to be followed by farmers. Session 3 – users discuss how institutions should assist in conflict resolution, provide additional information, support agreements. Session 4 – users review, reflect, conduct evaluation and specify actions.

17. Bengali delta - Bangladesh Ganges delta Coastal detail

18. Delta challenges • 160 million residents, by 2050, 220 million – chronic flooding from cyclones, tropical storms has killed thousands. • Sea level rise worsens floods –may displace 15% of population. • Ganges, Brahmaputra Rivers constantly shift, making it difficult to secure banks, protect farmland. • In 1990s, World Bank project, backed by France, Japan, US, proposed 8,000 km of dikes to control rivers: • $10 billion proposal opposed by farmers whose land would be taken. • Massive Dutch-style dikes to hold back sea, cyclone-induced waves, even less practical, according to IPCC – local soils too unstable.

19. Empowered participation, locally-adaptive management • NGOs have developed local-scale, low-tech adaptation measures: • UK-based Practical Action – 2-foot-high concrete plinths topped with inexpensive jute panel walled homes –less likely to be washed away by tropical storms. • US-based CARE helps people along coast rediscover forgotten farming techniques such as Baira cultivation, floating gardens suited to areas subject to lengthy inundation. • Salt-tolerant varieties of rice introduced; some paddies converted to shrimp, crab ponds. • Family planning efforts showing progress – fertility rates < 2/3 since 1977. • Illustrate how incorporating voices of those impacted by flood produces innovations more likely to be appropriately – and economically – scaled.

20. Flood adaptation innovations Floating farm Proposed agricultural mats – US architect Christopher Kouttron “Stilt’ homes – Gazipara, Bangladesh