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ice. ice. 2. ice. ice. What are ERC and ERC Synergy Grants. Synergy Grants “The strength of the Synergy Grant lies in enabling up to four top scientists to jointly tackle a challenging problem where none of them could succeed alone”

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  1. ice ice 2

  2. ice ice

  3. What are ERC and ERC Synergy Grants • Synergy Grants “The strength of the Synergy Grant lies in enabling up to four top scientists to jointly tackle a challenging problem where none of them could succeed alone” • 449 proposals, 20 selected for interviews -> 13 were funded (i.e. 3% success rate) • Ice2Ice is the only ERC Synergy project in the Nordic countries. Denmark-Norway collaboration • Ice2Ice – 12.5 mill EUR for 5 year project. Start August 1, 2014 • Why synergy? • Very complex problem with large potential impacts • Need complementary competence from different teams • Can exchange between institutions • No other mechanism available for a project like this • Need such an instrument for difficult questions on important topics

  4. ice2ice summary • The Arctic cryosphere is in rapid transformation. • Risk of concomitant abrupt change in Arctic sea ice and Greenland ice sheet is not tackled by any existing research program • We know such events have happened in the past. • We don´t not know why sea ice abruptly disappeared despite cold surroundings. • Abrupt changes will lead to immediate global effects on climate and on sea level. • The complexities of the problem must be tackled through a broad and in-depth interdisciplinary approach extracting synergies from different fields of expertise. • This effort requires world class expertise, laboratories and modelling tools. • No institution can do this alone– but we can do this together, given ERC-Synergy resources. • The Ice2Ice teams are uniquely positioned to undertake such an effort.

  5. Bo MøllesøeVinther(NBI, Copenhagen) ice2ice Principal Investigators Eystein Jansen (Bjerknes Centre, Bergen) Ice cores Marine sediments Kerim HestnesNisancioglu(Bjerknes Centre, Bergen) Jens HesselbjergChristensen (Danish Met. Inst., Copenhagen) Ocean dynamics Atmospheric dynamics

  6. What if Arctic sea ice disappears?

  7. What if Arctic sea ice disappears?

  8. IPCC (2013): …there is low confidence and little consensus on the likelihood of such events over the 21st century.

  9. Changes are already happening Sep 1979 Sep 2012 http://nsidc.org/

  10. Past changes in the Arctic were abrupt

  11. Past changes in the Arctic were abrupt warm 15oC warming within a decade on Greenland, but with global implications cold

  12. ice core marinecore

  13. Impact of Arctic sea ice extent on Greenland temperatures More sea ice Less sea ice Temperature Response Dokken, Nisancioglu, et al. (Paleoceanography, 2013)

  14. What can we learn from past abrupt changes in sea ice? Cold conditions Warm conditions warm cold time tropics Arctic tropics Arctic

  15. Challenge of simulating Arctic ocean temperature

  16. Challenge of simulating Arctic ocean temperature

  17. Complementary and cross-institutional teams

  18. Complementary and cross-institutional teams

  19. Complementary and cross-institutional teams Abrupt changes in Arctic ice?

  20. Research goals Describe nature, timing and extent of abrupt events across climate archives Determine the impact of Arctic sea ice on climate and the Greenland ice sheet Abrupt changes in Arctic ice? Resolve mechanisms behind sudden demise of Arctic sea ice cover Identify risk that rapid diminution of Arctic sea ice could give future abrupt changes

  21. ice2ice legacy new dynamical understanding of Arctic earth system synchronized archive and mapping of past abrupt climate events new generation of interdisciplinary earth scientists clarification of future risk of abrupt changes in Arctic climate

  22. ice ice • 5 years, start august 2014 • 12.5 mill € • THANK YOU!

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