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Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

Strategy and Nuclear Weapons. National National Security Goals Strategy Global Environment But: technology influences strategy. Developments and Debates. Early 20 th century: Airpower Mid to late 20 th century: nuclear weapons 21 st century: cyberweapons. US Strategy to 1890s.

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Strategy and Nuclear Weapons

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  1. Strategy and Nuclear Weapons National National Security Goals Strategy Global Environment But: technology influences strategy

  2. Developments and Debates • Early 20th century: Airpower • Mid to late 20th century: nuclear weapons • 21st century: cyberweapons

  3. US Strategy to 1890s Total War: Richmond 1865

  4. 1890s: Naval Power • Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840-1914)

  5. The Rise of Airpower: 20th century Two Views • Airpower is a novelty • Airpower is decisive • GiulioDouhet (Italy) • William Mitchell (US)

  6. WW II Strategic Bombing Tokyo May 9-19, 1945

  7. Dresden (1945)

  8. August 6, 1945 Hiroshima

  9. Hiroshima Before After

  10. August 9, 1945 Nagasaki

  11. Nagasaki: Before and After

  12. “The Absolute Weapon” Bernard Brodie, The Absolute Weapon, 1946

  13. First Nuclear Age, 1945-90s Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present Multipolarity asymmetry Deterrence missile defense Arms Control coercion Rationality • Bipolarity • balance • Deterrence • vulnerability • Arms Control • Managing rivalry • Rationality

  14. First Nuclear Age 1945-90s • Bipolarity • balance • Deterrence • vulnerability • Arms Control • Managing rivalry • Rationality

  15. 1. Bipolarity • An Arms Race • Spiral theory • US and USSR rough equality • Balance of power • Triad • ICBMs • SLBMs • Bombers

  16. ICBMIntercontinental Ballistic Missile

  17. SLBM – Submarine-launched Ballistic Missile

  18. Launch Tube Hatches on USS Alabama

  19. Strategic Bombers

  20. Two Arms Races by 1960s • Offense-offense • Offense-defense

  21. Early ABM Systems • Johnson Administration: “Sentinel”

  22. 2. Deterrence Strategies of Deterrence • Warfighting • JFK: Flexible Response • Nixon: Limited Nuclear Options: NSDM-242 • Carter: Countervailing Strategy: PD-59 • Reagan: Prevailing Strategy: NSDD-13

  23. MIRVs Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicles

  24. Strategies of Deterrence 2. Assured Destruction Deterrence = Second Strike capability • “Balance of Terror” • Albert Wohlstetter, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 37, No. 2 (January 1959): 211-234

  25. Soviet First Strike: Successful: USSR “wins” US Second strike US USSR

  26. US Second Strike Capability Soviet First Strike US Second strike Scenario: Everyone Dies US USSR

  27. US Strategic Nuclear Forces US and Soviet Nuclear Arsenals ICBM SLBM Bombers launchers/warheadslaunchers/warheads launchers/warheads

  28. USSR/Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces US and Soviet Nuclear Arsenals ICBM SLBM Bombers launchers/warheadslaunchers/warheads launchers/warheads

  29. Sources: • Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Nuclear Notebook • Natural Resources defense Council Archive of Nuclear Data

  30. 3. Arms Control • Management of the arms race • Cut costs • Increase predictability • Increase transparency • “Essential equivalence”

  31. Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties Cold War Era • SALT I • Interim Agreement on Offensive Arms 1972 • ABM Treaty 1972 • SALT II Agreement 1979

  32. Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties End of the Cold War • Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) I 1991 • START II 1993

  33. Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties Post-Cold War Era • Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 • New START Treaty 2010

  34. Critics of Arms Control • Soviet ICBM Superiority? • “Window of Vulnerability”

  35. Solutions to Window of Vulnerability Nixon to Reagan 1. Mobile Missiles • MX Multiple Protective Shelters system

  36. Solutions to Window of Vulnerability Reagan to present 2. Missile Defense Reagan’s SDI speech, March 23, 1983

  37. 4. Rationality • The logic of parity/equality • The logic of deterrence • The logic of management of the arms race • STRATEGIC STABILITY

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