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Meteo 415

Meteo 415. The Lecture Component. Today’s Objectives. What makes an excellent forecaster?. Excellent Forecasters, 2008. Outstanding data interpreter Decoder vs. interpreter Stellar tool box Optimizes efficiency Defines problem Looks at Observations!. Decoder vs. Interpreter.

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Meteo 415

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  1. Meteo 415 The Lecture Component

  2. Today’s Objectives • What makes an excellent forecaster?

  3. Excellent Forecasters, 2008 • Outstanding data interpreter • Decoder vs. interpreter • Stellar tool box • Optimizes efficiency • Defines problem • Looks at Observations!

  4. Decoder vs. Interpreter What are the differences between the two?

  5. Defining the problem http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~nytwx • Where? • Point or region? • When? • Short or long term? • What? • Temp (hi, low?) • Wind (instantaneous, peak gust?) • Humidity • Precip (amount, type, timing?) • Cloud (amount, type, timing?)

  6. Looks at Observations! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~nytwx Critical clues! • Excellent forecasters find clues • Examples: • Thunderstorm outflows • Lake-effect snow • Daytime high temperatures

  7. “Weather” can be explained by:“w” http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~nytwx • Shortwaves • Ascent (pva) • Descent (nva) • Fronts • Cyclones (lows), anticyclones (highs) • Buoyancy

  8. Dynamic Ascent: Shortwaves Aloft: 500mb Relationship to Surface

  9. Mechanical Ascent: Frontal lift

  10. Buoyant Ascent: Convection Lifted Index Assesses Instability- how?

  11. Relating upper levels to surface: Real case 500mb heights/vorticity 1000-500 thick/SLP How do I rate shortwave intensity ? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~nytwx

  12. Relating shortwaves to precipitation patterns 500mb heights “Observed” precip

  13. Relating surface fronts to precipitation patterns Observed precip 1000-500 thick/SLP What’s causing Gulf precip?

  14. Relating 500mb to Cloud Patterns 500mb heights Satellite picture What kind of satellite picture is this?

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