Spaceflight Requirements & Safety Considerations when Operating from UK Spaceport(s)

1. Spaceflight Requirements & Safety Considerations when Operating from UK Spaceport(s) Dr Andy Quinn Saturn SMS Ltd, UK A New Frontier for Growth & Enterprise

2. Greetings ‘Live long & prosper’

3. Topics • Introduction to risks • Spaceport & Spaceflight Requirements • Safety Considerations • Acceptable Levels of Safety

4. Spaceports • CAA Report to Industry (6th Nov 2015) by Jeremy Stubbs page 14: • In order to protect the uninvolved general public (and to meet casualty expectation targets) a spaceport should be located in an area of low population density: • The UK has no desert locations! Therefore a coastal site was seen as most appropriate. • Easy access to segregated airspace – away from normal air traffic routes • https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spaceport-briefing-on-emerging-requirements Discounted by MoD CAP1189; p191

5. Spaceports Rockets/Propellants Handling LOX & Asphalt = explosion Explosive Siting LOX venting Engine Test Site Noise UK Weather Cloudbase/Wind Airspace Shipping Transport links Tracking Emergency plans Abort procedures Environmental Assessment Casualty Expectation (Ec) analysis per FAA-AST CFR §417: Ec Target for the Public = 1x10-4 per mission collective (individual risk is lower at 1x10-6 per mission)

6. Spaceports – Location, Location, Location Casualty Expectation (Ec) analysis per FAA-AST CFR §417 Busy Shipping/Maritime (tankers, fishing, ferries, etc.) Busy Airspace (oceanic, regional, Military, GA, etc.) Ec Target for Shipping = 1x10-5 per mission Ec Target for Aircraft = 1x10-6 per mission

7. Spaceflight Expected Casualty Calculation Source: SHOAL (formerly Aerospace Concepts, Australia) RSTT (Range Safety Toolkit Template) http://www.shoalgroup.com/

8. Spaceport Explosive Siting Requirements FAA-AST CFR § 420 Note: UK HSE apply factors with rationale for person/vehicle movements (PTRD)

9. UK Satellite Launcher Requirements • CAA Report to Industry (6th Nov 2015) by Jeremy Stubbs page 13 • A vertical launch site for polar orbital satellite launch would most likely be at a green field location in the north of Scotland • https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spaceport-briefing-on-emerging-requirements • A UK Spaceport for Vertical Launch vehicles has vastly different requirements than a spaceplane • Requires a Range to operate per US Range criteria (to cope with expendable stages and failure cases) • Hazard containment area generally larger • Ground explosive siting safety distances generally larger • Spaceplanes can fly on different tracks/headings based on Ec etc.

10. UK Satellite Launcher Requirements Launcher Safety Range CAP1189; courtesy of SSTL

11. Risky Business • A new product, a new market …… Product Present New Increasing Risk Present Market New

12. How Safe is Safe Enough? Final Picture Credit: Elon Musk/Twitter 12

13. Safety Approvals • So what approval does VG & XCOR bring with them and how could the UK integrate them as well as thinking about UK-designed vehicles? UK Delta analysis PLUS UK CAA Requirements (Ops, Population, Airspace, Shipping, HSE) UK Space Agency/CAA? UK Range Safety FAA-AST Licensing (with informed consent) VG (WK2 + SS2) UK-design Launcher Certified/ Approval? Risk-Informed regulation ? FAA-AST Licensing FAA-AST Licensing XCOR (Lynx) VG (WK2 + SS2) VG (Launcher One) XCOR (Lynx) XCOR (Lynx III) CAP1189; p119: the UK should not apply the FAA AST system as a whole for regulation… CAP1189; p9; UK and EU legal opinion has determined that horizontally-launched spaceplanes are aircraft

14. Safety Case Approach • A safety case is “a documented body of evidence that provides a demonstrable and valid argument that a system is adequately safe for a given application and environment over its lifetime” (CAA, CAP 760) • Safety Case Required for: • Spaceport • Suborbital vehicle operator (spaceplane) • Satellite Launcher operators; • Spaceport sc for vertical launch systems (and spaceplanes if applicable) • Range Safety analysis • Launch system safety case

15. Safety Case Approach • FAA-AST does not mandate safety case but has good guidelines for safety analysis (that should be followed) i.e. this would form one part of the safety argument….. FAA-AST Licensing

16. UK HSE ALARP Principles • As part of safety case, demonstrating risks are managed: • ALARP means that residual risk levels have been reduced to a level that is As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) • This means that operators (both spaceplane and spaceport) should demonstrate that further risk reduction measures (in time, cost and effort) would be grossly disproportionate to benefit gained Intolerable Tolerable Broadly Acceptable

17. Acceptable Levels of Safety(public perception & acceptability of risk) • Aircraft: Hull Loss Rate – 1 in 10 million per flight (equivalent of 0.01 accidents per 100,000 flights) • North Sea Helicopter Ops (transportation of workers) – 1.35 accidents per 100,000 flights • Military Fast Jet Target – 2 per 100,000 flights; (was much higher until 2010 and reliability and less low level ops and combat missions) • UAVs (Reaper/Predator) – 3 to 5 accidents per 100,000 flights (was 30 per 100,000 initially and reliability now better) • 10 to 100 accidents per 100,000????? • Space Shuttle – 1 in 90 per mission (circa 1000 accidents per 100,000)

18. Summary • Spaceflight is risky, but with properly derived safety requirements and analysis the risks could be managed to a Tolerable level • The UK has different operating requirements, including; populated areas, busy airspace, busy shipping, weather, HSE considerations etc. • Satellite Launchers require isolated spaceport with specific safety range for expended stages • Effective Safety Management Systems implemented by Suitably Qualified & Experienced Personnel(SQEP) is key

19. Thank you for your attention – happy to answer any questions Dr Andy Quinn, MSc PhD CEng MRAeS andyquinn@saturnsms.com