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Climate Change: Ocean Impacts on Public Health

Climate Change: Ocean Impacts on Public Health. Donald F. Boesch. Climate Change Health Summit Washington, DC September 20, 2015. A Global Warming Pause?. 2015 Virtually Certain Temperature Record. Ocean Heating Has Been Steady. Most of the Heat Stored in Ocean. How Much Will it Warm?.

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Climate Change: Ocean Impacts on Public Health

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  1. Climate Change: Ocean Impacts on Public Health Donald F. Boesch Climate Change Health Summit Washington, DC September 20, 2015

  2. A Global Warming Pause?

  3. 2015 Virtually Certain Temperature Record

  4. Ocean Heating Has Been Steady

  5. Most of the Heat Stored in Ocean

  6. How Much Will it Warm? It mainly depends on how much greenhouse gases we emit. Global average surface temperature Unrestrained growth in emissions RCP8.5 7.2°F 3.6°F Rapid emissions reductions RCP2.6 www.ipcc.ch

  7. Changes Will Vary Greatly RCP8.5 Scenario for 2081-2100 Annual mean surface temperature [Chesapeake region warms more than global average, up to 8°F!] Average percent change in annual mean precipitation [~10% increase in Chesapeake region, mainly winter-spring] www.ipcc.ch

  8. A Warmer Chesapeake Bay

  9. Extensive Effects of Ocean Warming • Anomalously warm surface water in NE Pacific in 2015 • Drought in California • Heat waves in NW US • Effects on salmon stocks • Harmful algal blooms • Pacific Decadal Oscillation • El Niño

  10. Sea Level Had Been Stable 2000 Years meters Tide gauges 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Paleo-reconstruction -0.4 Less than 1 foot in 2,000 years Kemp et al. 2011. Proc. National Acad. Sci

  11. Recent Sea-Level Rise Since 1992 sea level rising more than twice as fast as for the 20th century as a whole. sealevel.colorado.edu

  12. Factors That Influence Sea-Level Change

  13. How Much Will the Seas Rise? Unrestrained emissions Rapid reductions Horton et al. 2013 Quaternary Science Reviews 84:1

  14. Effects of Polar Ice Sheet Melting Expected change in sea level for a given loss of ice mass from Greenland and Antarctica. Greenland West Antarctica Paradoxically, sea-level rise is greatest farthest from the source.

  15. Slowing of Gulf Stream Raises Sea Level Tide gauge level trends Gulf Stream strength Based on work of Tal Ezer and colleagues, Old Dominion University J. Geophysical Research 118:685

  16. Vertical Land Motion--Glaciation Land surfaces that were depressed by thick ice masses are now rising. Land surfaces that bulged upward because of these ice masses are now sinking. Late Interglacial

  17. How Much Will Sea Level Rise in the Chesapeake Bay? climatechange.maryland.gov

  18. Consequences of Sea-Level Rise • Light blue: salt marshes • Greens: < 2 m, suscept-ible to innundation • Orange-yellow: 2-4 m, susceptible to storm surge Greater Bay volume, ocean influence

  19. Sea-level Rise & Human Catastrophe

  20. Climate Change & Tropical Cyclones Hurricane Katrina intensified as a result of warm surface waters Tropical cyclones might actually become less frequent, but more powerful. M

  21. Sea-level Rise Will Not Stop in 2100 400 RCP4.5 Stabilization without overshoot 300 21st century 200 RCP3-PD Peak and decline Sea-level change (cm above 2000) 100 0 Historic (proxies & tide gauges) 2300 2000 1500 1000 Year Adapted from Schaeffer et al. 2012 Nature Climate Change 2: 867.

  22. Harmful Algal Blooms • Neurotoxic • Paralytic • Amnesic • Diarrhetic

  23. Coastal Ocean & Infectious Disease • Warmer temperatures • Enriched waters • Altered ecosystems • Open to invasions

  24. Increase in Atmospheric CO2 Starting point 280 ppm

  25. Ocean Acidification

  26. Climate Change Education • K-12 Education (integrated with Next-Generation Science Standards, and Environmental Literacy Requirements) • Higher Education (sustainability literacy, teacher preparation, pipeline) • Informal Education (museums, aquaria, outdoor centers, media) Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research www.madeclear.org/

  27. Questions or Comments? boesch@umces.edu www.umces.edu/people/president

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