Planning

1. Planning • A population profile allows a country to plan for the future: • Children need- schools, medical care, daycare (dependents) • Young people need – colleges & universities, jobs • Older people need – healthcare, retirement centers (dependents) • Dependency Ratio • = (<15 years)+(>65 years) x 100 • 16-64 year olds

2. Doubling Time • Doubling Time = Number of years that it takes for a population to double in size. • Divide 70 by the % Natural Increase. For example: The % Natural Increase for the world is 1.2% • = 70/1.2 = 58 years

3. Demographic Transition Return

4. Demographic Transition • Phase I: BR and DR both high (35-50). • BR = DR • Very slow population growth due to a balance between birth rates (BR) and death rates (DR). • Little or no disease control occurs. • Populations experienced periodic food shortages.

5. Phase II: BR high and DR declines. • Rapid population growth • As a result of improved food production and public health • BR > DR

6. Phase III: BR starts to decline. The gap between BR and DR narrows. • Fewer children needed – declining mortality. • Increased urbanization. • Increased female literacy and employment. • Contraceptives become more available.

7. Why did Americans in the 1800’s tend to have large families? • Most Americans lead a rural life • Economic reasons • Mortality rates were higher than today

8. Bites and Bulges • Prediction of present and future needs. • Zero Population Growth (ZPG) – Why is this not achieved once a population reaches replacement level? • Population Momentum Read the text and find out how Bites and Bulges affect a population profile. What is population momentum and how does it explain why a population continues to grow when it reaches ZPG.

9. Why do people in some of the world’s poorest countries have such high fertility rates? • Tradition • Religion • Early marriage age • Availability of contraceptives • Female illiteracy rate • High infant mortality rates • Children as economic asset • Page 146-147 in text Use the text to examine these factors

10. Why do people in developed (industrial countries) have low TFR? • They lead a mainly urban lifestyle • Economics • They have high expectations and raising children is expensive. • Education costs • They do not need children for old age security (Social security/retirement funds)

11. Phase IV: Decline in BR catches up with low DR. • BR = DR • Economic development in developed world.

12. Are developing countries locked in to Phases II and III ? • Many experts believe that without economic progress a nation cannot enter the final stage(s) of demographic transition. • There are many exceptions to the this. Many countries of Eastern Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) have entered Stage IV of demographic transition while before reaching economic stability.

13. Why do people in some of the world’s poorest countries have such high fertility rates? • Tradition (in rural Tibet it is traditional for a girl to marry once she reaches puberty) • Religion (some religions ban the use of contraceptives among their members) • Early marriage age • Availability of contraceptives • Female illiteracy rate • High infant mortality rates • Children as economic asset • Page 174-176 in text There are links to some of the topics on this page. Click the links to find more information on the web. Make sure your browser is open.

14. India Visit the following India external link • Was the first nation wide family planning 1951 • 1975 forced sterilization lead to downfall of government. • Centralized family planning • There is a strong desire for sons • Literacy 60% • Low contraceptive use – 31% • 25% of the population is below the poverty line • Infant mortality is high - 6.4% • Child mortality(1-4 years) • 3.7% (girls) • 2.5% (boys)

15. China • Barefoot doctors were established in rural area during the Cultural Revolution. • Nation wide family planning - 1972-73 • Birth quotas were established • Incentives and disincentives • Free schooling, jobs and medicine to those who signed family planning agreement • 1985 – rural family could have 2 children if first is girl, urban couple was allowed 1 child regardless of sex of child • 2006 – contraceptive use 87% • Literacy rate – 91% (2007 CIA World Factbook) • Marriage age 20 for women, 22 for men Visit the following China external link

16. China - reasons • Why has it brought fertility below replacement level ? • 92% Han ethnic group. (Its easier to deal with one culture rather than a number of diverse cultures) • The population is used to obeying authoritarian rule • Good family planning infrastructure • Integration of family planning with economics

17. China - problems • Some women were forced to undergo abortion • Female infanticide and abandonment – normally 105-106 boys per 100 girls. Currently, 112 boys born per 100 girls. • The WHO said more than 50 million women were estimated to be “missing” (external link)in China.

18. Thailand Visit the following Thailand external link • Culture – women are treated as equals • Buddhist scripture preaches that "many children make you poor.“ • Education – literacy 93% • Contraceptive availability is high. • Sterilization is popular. • Government low interest (1%) loans for agricultural projects. • Unemployment 2.1% (2007 CIA World Factbook) • TFR = 1.7; BR = 14

19. Solutions • Female education • Employment opportunities • Status of women • Delay marriage age • Availability of medicine (immunization etc.) • Availability of Contraception/Sterilization • Social support

20. USA • Fastest growing industrial country • July 1, 2007 population estimate 302.2 million • BR – 14; DR – 8 • % natural increase = 0.6%

21. U.S. Census Bureau Projections for USA

22. USA is adding • 1,700,000 per year through natural increase (PBR) • 1,000,000 per year through migration • Population growth rate = 0.92% • 33% of U.S. growth is due to migration

24. Teenage Pregnancy • Accounts for 13% of U.S. births • 78% of births to teens occur outside of marriage • -U.S. teen pregnancy - twice as high as in England and Wales or Canada, and nine times as high as in the Netherlands or Japan. Visit the U.S. teen pregnancy external link National Vital Statistics Report, 1997, Vol. 47, No. 18, Table 2.

25. Percentage sexual activity rate among U.S. teens - 1995

26. Race and Fertility in U.S. • 2001 – Population Reference Bureau(external link) • non-Hispanic whites - TFR 1.9 • Asian Americans – TFR 2.0 • American Indians – TFR 2.1 • non-Hispanic blacks – TFR 2.2 • Hispanics TFR 3.2. • Continued growth (?) Visit the U.S. fertility and race external link

27. Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2007

28. Future needs • Median age of U.S. population is 36 years • Life expectancy 78 years • 0-14 years - 21% • 15-64 years – 67% • >65 years – 12% • Baby boom generation is aging • Aging population – health care, social security

29. Contraceptives and Fertility Return

30. Income and Fertility Return

31. Look at the trend, do not memorize these numbers. Contraceptive Use (external link)

32. THE END

33. TFR and female education Return

34. Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

35. Marriage age Return

36. Reaching Replacement Fertility Average number of children per woman Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

37. Patterns of Fertility Decline Average number of children per woman Uganda Kenya Columbia South Korea Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.