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Arms Sales and Foreign Aid: The German Case

Arms Sales and Foreign Aid: The German Case. Austin Baker Abby Cooner Prof. Vreeland Krogh Honors Seminar. Research Question. Independent Variable Dependent Variable. Hypothesis. If a country imports German arms, they are more likely to receive German foreign aid.

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Arms Sales and Foreign Aid: The German Case

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  1. Arms Sales and Foreign Aid: The German Case Austin Baker Abby Cooner Prof. Vreeland Krogh Honors Seminar

  2. Research Question Independent Variable Dependent Variable

  3. Hypothesis • If a country imports German arms, they are more likely to receive German foreign aid. How does this make sense?

  4. Context • End of Cold War more open, competitive, less polarized arms market • COCOM • Wassenaar Arrangement • EU • Policy ≠ decisions (Davis 2002: 6) • “Much of what goes by the name of foreign aid today is in the nature of bribes”

  5. The Process Foreign Country German Arms Manufacturers Buys Arms Receives Aid Federal Security Council BDSV Export Permits Chancellor Federal Ministry

  6. Methodology • Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) • Arms transfers database • OECD Data (1990-2009) • Challenge of Endogeneity

  7. Top German Arms Importers and Aid Recipients

  8. Notes: All regressions include country and year fixed-effects and regional quartics. Numbers in parentheses are the absolute values of t-statistics. We mark absolute t-statistics with * if p<0.10 (statistical significance at the 10% confidence level); with ** if p<0.05 (statistical significance at the 5% confidence level); and with *** if p<0.01 (statistical significance at the 1% confidence level). Notes: All regressions include country and year fixed-effects and regional quartics. Numbers in parentheses are the absolute values of t-statistics. We mark absolute t-statistics with * if p<0.10 (statistical significance at the 10% confidence level); with ** if p<0.05 (statistical significance at the 5% confidence level); and with *** if p<0.01 (statistical significance at the 1% confidence level). Notes: All regressions include country and year fixed-effects and regional quartics.

  9. Conclusion • Import arms receive more aid • Positive, statistically significant • Causal logic reinforced by data

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