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Sustainability – past and future trends

Sustainability – past and future trends. Sustainability – where are we going? 24 th March 2010, Living Rainforest, UK Steve Bass, Senior Fellow, IIED. Where have we come from? How embedded is sustainability?. Sustainable development: a simple idea, an eternal debate.

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Sustainability – past and future trends

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  1. Sustainability – past and future trends Sustainability – where are we going? 24th March 2010, Living Rainforest, UK Steve Bass, Senior Fellow, IIED

  2. Where have we come from? How embedded is sustainability?

  3. Sustainable development: a simple idea, an eternal debate Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Brundtland Commission 1987 > … Rio > Joburg > Marrakesh > Kyoto > Copenhagen >Rio+20…

  4. What has SD ‘summitry’ produced? SD conventions – Biodiversity, Climate, Desertification… SD plans/strategies – national, local, sectoral SD fora and councils – CSD, national, city, sector SD legal principles – polluter pays, precaution, consent… SD ‘triad’ partnerships – govt, civil society, business SD codes of practice – esp in resource-intensive sectors SD ‘wonks’ – but not embedded in the everyday world SD frameworks – are confusing…

  5. Has this SD ‘tool-kit’ helped anyone? Results 1 - 10 of about 22,000,000 for sustainable development

  6. 000s of local/informal SD initiatives • Micro-finance for solar, Bangladesh • Organopónicos, Cuba • Plant Oil Stove, Indonesia • Eden Project, UK • Eco-sanitary pads, Rwanda • But poor enabling environment

  7. Many corporate SD initiatives • SD offers a framework for handling efficiency and futures – in a way that is profitable • But policy environment is still uncertain (WBCSD 2010)

  8. Weak national-level governance for SD…

  9. Causes of unsustainability are entrenched • Economic growth considered inviolable • Debt/fossil-fuelled positional consumption in the OECD • $100 growth = $0.60 poverty reduction + env damage • Env externalities and social inequities entrenched • Little accountability/valuation of env and social capital • Env unvalued, unpriced, unscrutinised, unplanned… • Governance maintains this status quo: • Relies on failed system to solve the problems it creates • Yet lacks real resilience to shocks (climate, finance…)

  10. Rapidly growing economic activity….

  11. … is breaching ecological limits…

  12. Global public believes the world is going in the wrong direction... Is the World Going in the Right Direction? “Agree” 10 Countries, 2001–9

  13. …and public concern high for sustainability "Very Serious," Average of 23 Countries, BBC World Service Poll 2009

  14. The public easily turned off… ‘Who are the bossiest people on earth?’ • Politicians • Religious leaders • Right-wing newspapers • Environmentalists I’M AN ENVIRONMENTALIST. THINK LIKE ME!

  15. Experts see opportunities arising from crisis: esp. new economic models & alternative energy Globescan Poll of Sustainability Experts, 2009

  16. ‘Green economy’ is the current SD narrative • Risk of further economic collapse is the problem; green growth is the answer (OECD, G20 stimulus) • Growth is the problem – consumption-driven, debt-fuelled; ‘one planet economy’ is the answer (WWF) • Lack of decent employment and dying industries is the problem; green jobs are the answer (ILO) • Climate change is the problem; after Copenhagen, green economy is the answer(Sukhdev) • The future will be green – or not at all (Porritt)

  17. Sustainable society is the next major transformation? Civilisations advance by collective solutions • Tribes > guilds > city-state > nation-state > united states > … 21st century: enlightened cooperation of free states? • a globally constructed, yet locally rooted ‘global civil code’ • desirable to Islamic, Confucian, Western, etc, traditions • ‘immune system’ for tipping points (climate, water, security) • built on experience of ‘what works’ for SD…

  18. A new era for sustainability?

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