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GOES-R: Bringing Critical New Capability to Automated Aviation Weather Products Paul H. Herzegh

GOES-R: Bringing Critical New Capability to Automated Aviation Weather Products Paul H. Herzegh National Center for Atmospheric Research With acknowledgements to Timothy Schmit (CIMSS) Gary Ellrod (NESDIS) Anthony Schreiner (CIMSS) May 12, 2004. FAA AWRP NCAR, MIT, FSL,

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GOES-R: Bringing Critical New Capability to Automated Aviation Weather Products Paul H. Herzegh

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  1. GOES-R: • Bringing Critical New Capability • to Automated Aviation Weather Products • Paul H. Herzegh • National Center for Atmospheric Research • With acknowledgements to • Timothy Schmit (CIMSS) • Gary Ellrod (NESDIS) • Anthony Schreiner (CIMSS) • May 12, 2004

  2. FAA AWRP NCAR, MIT, FSL, NRL, others. NASA AvSP, ASAP, CIMSS. NOAA NESDIS, NCEP, AWC, others. Funding, Personnel, Data, Techniques, R&D. • Automated Aviation Wx Products/Guidance • Volcanic Ash • Turbulence (clear air, convectively-induced, terrain-i) • Icing • Ceiling and Visibility • Winds (flight level and below) • Convection (initiation, diagnosis, nowcast, forecast) • Space Weather (health/comm hazards) Aviation Weather Product Delivery/Flow

  3. AWRP Aviation Wx Products • Volcanic Ash • Turbulence (CAT, CIT) • Icing • Ceiling and Visibility • Convection • Winds (flight level and below) • Space Weather (health/comm) • Operational Users • FAA Flight Service Stations • Airline met/dispatch depts. • Airport operators • Air traffic met support (CWSU) • Pilot / cockpit • Commercial Av. Wx. services • Volcanic ash centers (VAAC’s) Test Products Operational Products NCAR, MIT websites for structured user trials. NOAA AWC Operational home & distribution point. Aviation Weather Product Delivery/Flow

  4. Current: VA SIGMET display Future: VA analysis & fcst . Current: CAT fcst product. Current: Icing fcst product. Aviation Weather Product Overview • AWRP Aviation Wx Products • Volcanic Ash • Turbulence (CAT, CIT) • Icing • Ceiling and Visibility • Convection • Winds • Space Weather (health/comm)

  5. Current: C&V test product. Current: Convective nowcast. Future: Improved 3-D winds. Possible Future: Polar route space wx. Aviation Weather Product Overview • AWRP Aviation Wx Products • Volcanic Ash • Turbulence (CAT, CIT) • Icing • Ceiling and Visibility • Convection • Winds • Space Weather (health/comm)

  6. Other ForecastsNowcasts, or methods. NWP INPUT - RUC - Eta - GFS - Other Relevant Obs - METARS - RAOBS - Radar - Others PIREPS & AIREPS Climat-ology FORECAST INTEGRATION WEIGHTS Based on recent forecast performance. GOES & GOES Products POES & POES Products Future methods & sources. DATABASE FORECAST COMPONENT PERFORMANCE. Feedback Loop Generalized AWRP Product Synthesis Display: Website, ADDS, Cockpit, Other. EXPERT SYSTEM-BASED FORECAST BLENDING PROCESS (Weighted Simple Additive Model) Analysis and/or Forecast Product

  7. Resolution: mountain waves HES/ABI Sounding Improvement - 4-D improvement in stability, winds, moisture. - Turbulence Likelihood field. - Convective initiation, nowcast, forecast. - Turbulence Likelihood field. GOES-8 Simulated GOES-R Ozone Detection (Schmidt & Li) - New 9.6 μm ABI channel for obs at high temporal/spatial resolution. - HES ozone accuracy. - Synergistic ABI/HES use. Turbulence Likelihood field via tropopause folding. Water Vapor Tracer (Wimmers) - Synergistic ABI/HES use. Impact on Av. Products GOES-R Enabling Capability

  8. Critical Improvement to: - Convective Nowcasting - Diagnosis of severe oceanic Conv. - Convective storm evolution. - Improved NWP initialization. - Early volc eruption alert? (Electrified eruption cloud) Geo Lightning Mapper Cloud Properties - Cloud masking - Cloud top height/temperature - Cloud top phase (ice/water) Critical Improvement to: - Ceiling and visibility products - In-flight icing products Fog & Low Cloud Detection Critical to: - Airport ops - Overnight flts - AM ops GOES-10 Simulated GOES-R Impact on Av. Products GOES-R Enabling Capability

  9. GOES-R Enabling Capabilities • ABI - All spectral channels for ash (8) • Key IR upper-level SO2 (7.3, 8.5 μm) • Spatial & temporal resolution (5-15 min; 0.5-2 km) • - Continuity for plume tracking • - Resolution for hot spot analysis • HES/ABI Satwinds for plume tracking. • Temp/wind profiles for plume heights. • CO2 slicing for plume heights. • Others.. Intermediate GOES-R Products A Focus on GOES-R Impacts – Volcanic Ash

  10. Ellrod RGB-rendered ash analysis adjusted for day and night. Thermal hot-spot monitoring for eruption alert. Upper-level SO2 with ABI 15 min frequency. AWRP Product Value Added: - Fusion - Automation, animation - User interface - Edit/display tools - History database - etc. Automated guidance/support to AWC, VAAC’s, others. Enabling Intermediate GOES-R Products for VA

  11. .. and many more impacts and opportunities to improve aviation safety and efficiency.

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