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Policy Scenario Analyis

Policy Scenario Analyis. Chrystalyn Ivie Ramos Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change Hamburg University 23 April 2008. Greenhouse gas tax. Policy. Mitigation Potentials. 500. 450. 400. Technical Potential. 350. Competitive Potential. 300. Carbon price (Euro/tce). 250.

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Policy Scenario Analyis

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  1. Policy Scenario Analyis Chrystalyn Ivie Ramos Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change Hamburg University 23 April 2008

  2. Greenhouse gas tax Policy

  3. Mitigation Potentials 500 450 400 Technical Potential 350 Competitive Potential 300 Carbon price (Euro/tce) 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Mitigation (mmtce)

  4. 500 Crop Area Fixed 450 Crop Area and Prices Fixed 400 Crop Area and Prices Endogenous 350 300 Carbon Price in Euro/mtce 250 200 Prices Fixed 150 100 50 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Total Agricultural and Forest Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement in mmtce

  5. 500 450 400 Independent Geographic Potential 350 Competitive Economic Potential 300 Carbon Price in Euro/mtce 250 Simult. Technical Potential 200 150 Independent Technical Potential 100 50 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Total Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement in mmtce

  6. Changes in Welfare Accounts 8 6 4 Gross Ag-Producer Surplus 2 Net Ag-Producer Surplus 0 Billion Euros -2 Emission Payments -4 -6 Ag-ConsumerSurplus -8 -10 0 20 40 60 80 100 Carbon Equivalent (CE) Prices in Euros per Ton

  7. Crop prices Livestock prices Livestock production Crop production Net exports GHG Mitigation and Markets 220 200 180 160 140 Fisher index 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Carbon price (Euro/tce)

  8. Climate Policy and Bioenergy 500 Economic Potential 400 300 Competitive Economic Potential Carbon price ($/ton of carbon) 200 Technical Potential 100 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Emission offsets (million metric tons of carbon)

  9. Power Plant Biomass Supply 80 70 Unrestricted Capacity 60 50 2050 Capacity 40 Energy Crops (million acres) 30 2030 Capacity 20 10 2010 Capacity 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Carbon tax on energy ($/ton of carbon)

  10. Afforestation Potentials 500 400 Economic Potential 300 Carbon price (Euro/tce) Competitive Economic Potential 200 100 Technical Potential 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Emission reduction (mmtce)

  11. 7 Total Livestock Emission Reductions 6 5 Less Enteric Fermentation 4 3 2 Manure Emission Reductions 1 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Biofuel Policy: Livestock Emissions Emission reduction (mmtce) Biofuel carbon price (Euro/tce)

  12. Forest Policy: Crop Emissions 15 10 IrrigationUse Nitrogen Fertilizer 5 Emissions (kg C/ha) 0 Fossil Fuel Use -5 -10 Ag-Soil Carbon -15 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Carbon price (Euro/tce)

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