Atmosphere- Integrated Climate Science

1. Atmosphere-Integrated Climate Science

2. Motivation • The Andes are the source of water for millions of people. Western Argentina is largely vulnerable to changes in water availability • LPB is the second largest basin in South America and encompasses the socio-economic activities of 5 countries • The Andes and the SAMS induce unique features in the regional climate that are challenging for understanding and modeling • Anthropogenic forcing due to land-use changes, biomass burning, GHGs increase and Ozone depletion/recovery are also driving climate in the region. • Ozone depletion affects Southern South America population, ecosystems. • The changing climate is increasing the vulnerability of the region

3. Scientific Issues • Regional drivers of South American climate • Global forcings of regional climate • Integrated Climate Science • FOCUS: The Andes-LPB- southern tip of SA

4. Regional drivers of South American climate • Dynamical aspects and impacts of the Andes on regional climate. • Improve the representation of orographic wave drag in models • Land-atmosphere interactions • Ocean-atmosphere interactions • Biomass burning impact on regional climate • Ozone depletion and impact on regional climate • others??

5. Global forcings of regional climate • Diagnostic studies (e.g. ENSO) • Sensitivity and process studies

6. Objectives • To increase knowledge of processes driving climate at regional scale (South America) • To foster studies addressing how climate variability and climate change will impact population, biodiversity, production and vulnerability • To extend the critical mass involved in modeling development

7. Land-atmosphere interactions • Scientific questions mostly related with LPB

8. LPB (Hydroclimate project)-WCRP • What climatologicaland hydrological factors and human factors determine the frequency of occurrence and spatial extent of floods and droughts?  • How predictable is the regional weather and climate variability and its impact on hydrological, agricultural and social systems of the basin? • What are the impacts of global climate change and land use change on regional weather, climate, hydrology and agriculture? Cantheirimpactsbepredicted, atleast in part?

9. Ocean-atmosphere interactions Areas of particular interest to focus the study of O-A interactions: • South Western Atlantic is a hot spot for energy exchange (this is measured globally and SWA appears as an area with large amounts of energy exchange) • Drake Passage • Continental shelf region and their role in GHGs (how much CO2 is trapped by the oceans around these regions). It is (i.e. patagonian shelf) the second one in the world regarding its importance for CO2 sink. • SACZ – South Atlantic interaction?

10. Need a workshop about what are the impacts of South Western Atlantic on South America climate (and its variability/change)

11. Biomass burning impact on regional climate • Which are the effects of aerosols on radiation and energy balance • What are the typical cloud microphysical processes involved in local convection, mesoscale convective systems and cold fronts (this was written for LPB)? • How aerosol contributes to the cloud processes and precipitation in each type of convective system? • What is the impact of wet depositon on the ecosystem? • Share expertise on atmospheric chemistry, chemistry modeling and transport of pollutants • Which is the composition of “air masses”: secondary-primary pollution

12. Ozone depletion and impact on regional climate • Monitoring the evolution of Ozone depletion • Ozone depletion-climate change interactions • Climate of the Antartica • Influence of synoptic scale variability on Ozone variability

13. Modeling strategy • Improve models: • Improve parameterizations (PBL, convection) • Land-surface parameterization • Ice • Improve hydrologic models • Earth System modeling? (atmos-ocean-chemistry-biosphere-land-++++)

14. Observing strategy Synergistic use of instruments • Remote sensing instruments (lidar, radiometers, passive sensors) and in situ measurements (surface flux) • Upper air observations • Foster the regional capacity in Argentina • Support field experiments related with UMI scientific agenda • Promote a “SIRTA” type of site at Argentina (e.g. built upon existing site at CEILAP) • Facilitate access to observational data

15. Integrated climate science • To support water resources management, energy production and risk management • Study the spatial and temporal coherence of precipitation patterns and streamflow affecting the regional hydrology • Evaluate whether this could be modified in a changing climate • To support agricultural activities and production • Study of wet and dry precipitation and temperature spells regimes over the same regions (they impact at different temporal scales -decision making at farmers levels , at water resources management and ultimately being the starting point for the analysis of floods and droughts) • Wind energy production • Tailoring climate information

16. For the strategy • Identification and availability of reliable sets of data/variables to address • Vulnerability • Model validation • Process studies

17. UMI should provide a framework for • Facilitating the use of available data and encouraging the deployment of instruments related with its scientific agenda • Strengthening France-Argentina and regional networks • Providingfacilities to share and distribute data and model outputs. • Fostering the use of IPSL GCMs. Discussing possibilities of common modeling strategies • Supporting capacity building

18. Capacity building • Training on running GCMs for process studies or other focus. • Training on using model outputs for specific applications • Build a community of people working with global models • Enlarge global modeling community • Support shared PhDs (France-Argentina) • Communicating the climate science to the society

19. Needs - recommendations • Bring in other partners (human dimensions) • Take advantage of what has been done at other UMIs • Expand international collaboration (Andes involves Chile, Perú and others, while LPB involves Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia). Initiatives like GDRI (Group de Recherche International) could help UMI to expand internationally.

20. Document for UMI scientific agenda • Motivation • Scientific questions • General discussion of Strategy • First actions(probably with timeline) Annex: Previous collaboration

21. Work with common capacity • Support short time visits (researchers-postdocs- Phd students)

22. Extra slides with ideas and documents

23. Co-production of knowledge: • How to involve population and stakeholders so that they express which kind of science they need

24. The Andes Motivation: • The Andes are the source of water for millions of people. Western Argentina is largely vulnerable to changes in water availability • The Andes induce unique features in the regional climate that are challenging for modeling • The changing climate is accelerating • What are the drivers for observed changes (caution, since this largely depends on which part of The Andes we want to focus) • What is the role of glaciers in modulating water availability? • What is the contribution of glaciers to streamflow? • What would be the role of climate change on vegetation/forests? • What are the patterns of circulation associated with wet/dry periods in the Andes? • How does the larger scale circulation (/forcings) modify these local circulations? • We need (improved!) models to represent the local effects of the Andes • Where is the humidity coming from???: humidity sources are changing • Which is the role of the Andes in organizing local precipitation /heavy precipitating systems? High resolution models needed

25. Platex • Why are the LPB MCS so remarkable in a world wide perspective concerning their physical properties detected by remote sensing • What are the controls on precipitation efficiency of the MCS in LPB? • What controls the exceptional lightning activity? • What is the role of biomass burning products in the evolution of MCS in the LPB? • What are the typical cloud microphysical processes involved in local convection, mesoscale convective systems and cold fronts? How aerosol contributes to the cloud processes and precipitation in each case? • What is the typical MCS for the three different types of low level jet: CJE NCJE and LLJA • What is the impact of advected aerosol on the surface heat and moisture budgets? • What is the radiative effect in the MCS life cycle? • What are the constraints on MCS predictability? • How is the typical microphysical structure of the convective clouds and how predictable is this microphysics structure? • Is the rain volume affected by biomass burning?

26. 3 selected basins: • Without glaciers • Glacier with “ice” • Glacier covered by rocks