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SNOWPACK Modeling at the CAIC

SNOWPACK Modeling at the CAIC. Colorado Avalanche Information Center. CAIC’s Modeling History. Manual weather obs for highway operations from 1950 in some areas and 1995 along most sections Formal database of automated wx data began in 2007 CAIC WRF simulations became operational in 2010

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SNOWPACK Modeling at the CAIC

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  1. SNOWPACK Modeling at the CAIC Colorado Avalanche Information Center

  2. CAIC’s Modeling History • Manual weather obs for highway operations from 1950 in some areas and 1995 along most sections • Formal database of automated wx data began in 2007 • CAIC WRF simulations became operational in 2010 • CAIC SNOWPACK simulations began in 2012

  3. CAIC WRF • Weather Research and Forecasting Model • Nested grids • 12km over western US (230x200x37) • 4km over Colorado (187x187x37) • 84 hr forecast, 4 times a day • Model run on two, 16-core computers

  4. CAIC WRF • Initialized with LAPS (Local Analysis and Prediction System) • Uses RAP (Rapid Refresh model) as background • Incorporates CAIC and MADIS datasets • Forecasts use NAM 13km for lateral boundary

  5. SNOWPACK • Off-the-shelf snowpack model from SLF • Similar to model developed by Metero France • Forced by either weather obs or weather model • Used operationally by SLF Avalanche Warning group • ASARC developed operational tool for CAC

  6. 2012-13 Density Evolution at RMP

  7. CAIC SNOWPACK Effort • 2012-13 season: SNOWPACK simulation of cover on Red Mountain Pass from CSAS Swamp Angel study site • 2013-14 season: SNOWPACK simulations driven by observations for • Red Mountain Pass • Grand Mesa • Arapahoe Basin • Cameron Pass

  8. CAIC Modeling Effort • 2013-14 season: SNOWPACK simulations driven by CAIC WRF model data • Simulations every 6 hrs • 1 simulation for every WRF grid cell over 2700 m • 3599 simulations • Current visualization • Snowpack temperature • Snowpack density • Snowpack grain size

  9. Questions?

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