Consumer Scenarios Towards 2008

1. Consumer ScenariosTowards 2008 The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies www.cifs.dk

2. Megatrends: ”Certainties” Commercialisation Wealth Globalisation Network organisations Knowledge society IT / Digitising Individualisation Values, health, environment Bio-technology Acceleration, 24 hour society Demographics

3. Future = Uncertainty • ONE WAY to work with the future uncertainties: Scenarios • A description of a possible future • and/or • A description of the ”history” to a possible future • Scenarios do NOT reduce uncertainty • but may give a ”handle” on it • Scenarios: Change to different ”mind set” forces new ideas, gives inspiration, • patterns & contrasts may become more clear

4. Scenarios by crossing uncertainties Purpose: Create four scenarios for workshop In real life: Variations in products, functions, phases of life, situations, cultures, and value systems More scenarios... Basis today: Five ”uncertainties” pre-selected by the CIFS

5. One way to create four scenarios:Crossing two uncertainty axes Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

6. Mobility Individualisation Emotion Technology acceptance Homogenisation Anchoring Community Function Technology aversion Polarisation Uncertainties - Intermediate Term 1) We choose 2 of these (2 votes each) 2) CIFS has prepared a set of scenarios based on the selected axes 3) You work with these scenarios in the workshop

7. Mobility Drivers: Globalisation, Digitalisation, Specialisation Values: Change and Flexibility Specialised places - you have to go there to be part of it Multitasking, zapping Anchoring Stress, lack of identity, more elderly, ”risk society” Stability, structures Multi-functional places - almost everything may be done from home Multitasking - or anchoring of time use in a set of rules ? Mobility versus Anchoring

8. Individualisation Drivers: Commercialisation, specialisation, IT, mobility Values: Atomistic. Me, myself, I. Consumer: (Private), personal, situation-dependent Politics: Your own responsibility Community Lack of identity, feeling of uncertainty, change Holistic. Finding identity in the group (Public). Group consumption, in groups you’ve selected or been born into Politics: Social consequences, ”political consumer”, express communal values Individualisation vs. Community

9. Emotion versus Function • Emotion • Drivers: Economic growth • Values: Attention, symbolic values • Markets: Adventures, identity, comfort, opinions, complexity • Service: Empathy, dreams • Time: Valuable in itself • Function • Drivers: Stagnation/recession • Values: Efficiency, technical focus • Markets: Usefulness, value for money, convenience, safety • Service: Competence, information • Time: A cost

10. Acceptance Drivers: Problem solutions, comfort, excitement ! Values: Change, usefulness Fast digitalisation Biotech is great Production: Industrial, automated, ”artificial” Aversion Fear, uncertainty, doubt, lack of confidence, risk to own positions God, Nature, and Stability rules Slow digitalisation Biotech regulated strongly Production: Manual, ”Natural” wherever possible. ”No change” in many industrial products Technology acceptance / aversion

11. Polarisation Drivers: Market does not equalise, no level playing field Values: Differences foster growth Wealth: Highly unequal distrib. Political values: Extremes Consumers: Clearly segmented by income groups Homogenisation Market and/or welfare state works, ethics Large differences are unethical Relatively equal distrib. of wealth Center politics Consumers segmented by non-economic criteria (culture, values) Polarisation vs. Homogenisation

12. Mobility Individualisation Emotion Technology acceptance Homogenisation Anchoring Community Function Technology aversion Polarisation Uncertainties - Intermediate Term 1) We choose 2 of these (2 votes each) 2) CIFS has prepared a set of scenarios based on the selected axes 3) You work with these scenarios in the workshop

13. Workshop: 4 scenarios, 4 groups Axis 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Axis 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

14. Workshop: 4 scenarios, 4 groups e.g. Anchoring Scenario 2 Scenario 1 e.g. Individualisation e.g. Community Scenario 3 Scenario 4 e.g. Mobility

15. Mobility Individualisation Emotion Technology acceptance Homogenisation Anchoring Community Function Technology aversion Polarisation Uncertainties - intermediate termWhich uncertainties are most important to the company (related to Future Consumers? 1) We choose 2 of these (2 votes each) 2) CIFS has prepared a set of scenarios based on the selected axes 3) You work with these scenarios in the workshop

16. Click to reach the relevant ”scenario grid” Mobility Individualisation Emotion Tech acceptance Polarisation Anchoring Community Function Tech aversion Homogenisation 1 Mobility versus Anchoring 2 Individualisation versus Community 3 Emotion versus Function 4 Tech acceptancance vs. Tech aversion 5 Polarisation vs. Homogenisation 1 2 3 4 1 5 6 7 2 5 8 9 3 6 8 10 4 7 9 10

17. Me and my home Travel - Go for it Self realisation - ego-focus The home is developed (=me) Rest of world: via the web Specialised labour market Metropoles in focus (silicon valley) City nomads, body & wear focus (personal branding) Clans forever Clubs, clubs & clubs Loyalty, relations, family Norms, rituals, traditions ”home-parties” ... Social individualists, ”situids” mobile, mirroring in others ... roleplaying communities, niches Scenario grid #1 Individualisation-community / anchoring-mobility individualisation anchoring mobility community R

18. Roots To travel is to live Meaning through everyday life Slow Food and Slow Cities Local markets rather than malls Symbolic values in architecture Adventures and experiences Competing on differences Travel to learn or improve health Limited traditional construction The power of habits Creative destruction Safety and predictability E-business, video conferences Multifunctional buildings Move goods rather than people Without mobility, no development New methods replace old routines Inspiration from other cultures Global convergence, world citzens Scenario grid #2 Emotion-function / anchoring-mobility emotion anchoring mobility function R

19. My home is my castle IT nomads ”Virtual home environment”, wearable, always-on, has it all Public space is in focus, the home an overnight parking place Why move ? Virtual reality, broadband homeshopping, telework, … Need for limits Seeking authenticity No borders = chaos & pain Focus: Nearness, origins Fixed patterns of life VR is a second best solution! Life: To experience the world, people, beauty, places, ... Scenario grid #3Tech acceptance - tech aversion / anchoring-mobility technology acceptance anchoring mobility technology aversion R

20. Gated communities The winner takes all Ghettoes & luxury ghettoes Polarised labour market Insecurity => tele-shopping etc. Silicon Valley, Hollywood, London Star Economy. ”Be there and be part of it - or die” All are close & alike European integration Glocal life via the web Avoid concentration of people, money, power, ... Middle class in focus Mobile labour market => egalisation EU ensures total mobility: capital, persons, educations, knowledge,... Scenario grid #4Homogenisation-polarisation / anchoring-mobility polarisation anchoring mobility homogenisation R

21. Brand yourself Value communites Dream society - realise yourself Maximise existence, be a star Fight for the best education/job Don’t retire, rewire. Be unique Dream society - create stories Focus on values and togetherness Be attentive, polite, politically correct Rituals, ’new traditions’, community Economic man Stakeholder society Tailor-made functionality for each Competent, engaged customers Value chains must be certified Limited branding, digital agents Community for practical reasons Public services must be functional Risk society - the system must work Education and health are expensive Scenario grid #5 Emotion-function / individualisation-community emotion individua- lisation community function R

22. Create it yourself Connecting people technology gives freedom ! Victory of the individual, e-learning, empowerment, ... ”Working together gives strength” Developing knowledge together Sharing, car-pools etc. Transparency, more politics Neo-darwinism Cultural revolution Man before Robot ! The unique, the hand made Values ! Develop man ! (technology isn’t sexy) Reaction: Eco-communes the personal, near. Productive co-operation in practice. People. Happiness. Scenario grid #6 Tech acceptance-aversion / individualisation-community technology acceptance individua-lisation community technology aversion R

23. Brand yourself Corporate governance Super-liberal ”Star economy” Experiences: Everything is show-business Everything is up to you ! Divided society, but: Good service in good companies! Lifestyle-communities & ghettos Marginalised: Barter economy Managed competition Equality & brotherhood Private initiative in vogue. Public services: Run by private sector. Welfare state egalises Taxes & subsidies help equality More elderly & immigrants: High public service - if you ”fit in” Low growth: New demands on the state … Scenario grid #7 homogenisation-polarisation / individualisation-community polarisation individua- lisation community homogenisation R

24. Dreams unlimited High touch Technology facilitates adventure Science defeats sickness, death Toy-size elephants, puppies that never grow up, robot servants High touch before high technology Nature is sacred, tech must retreat Organic foods, animal welfare Risk society supports dream society Easier, better, cheaper We have what we need Technology wins in the long run Biotech, digitech, robotech New economy, low unemploym. Lack of labour in health sector What do we gain from technology? Opaque risks, why take chances? Make what we have work first. We want decent food and homes. Scenario grid #8 Emotion-function / tech acceptance-tech aversion emotion tech accept. tech aversion function R

25. Doing well by doing good No free lunch Too much inequality is distasteful Integration is ethically correct Giving comfort is a human need Corporate social responsibility Art/culture commercialised. Tanstaafl The skilled and lucky are favoured Immater. poverty worse than material Livestyle ailments, big health sector A stitch in time Only do what you do best Basic needs satisfied (Maslow) Emotional needs can’t be bought Equality prevents crime/disease Service replaces consumption Polarisation promotes motivation Extreme specialisation creates value Makers and shakers - and servicers Low unemployment, wide wage span Scenario grid #9 Emotion-function / homogenisation-polarisation emotion homogenisation polarisation function R

26. Knowledge is free Let it go - free for all technology => transparancy No monopolies in knowledge, public good - free for all (free drugs for Africa too) Everybody wins - in the long run ... Short term-monopoly: Necessary evil More ”Microsofts” Wealthy are ”medically enhanced” Equality everywhere Fundamentalism ”toBit tax” on new technology ”Democratic technology” OK ? Low growth, unemployment, but: Work in welfare sector Tools can be used - or abused. Hackers, religious fundamentalists fight IT, bio-technology etc. Basic civil rights under threat Scenario grid #10 Tech acceptance-tech aversion / homogenisation-polarisation technology acceptance Homogenisation polarisation technology aversion R

27. A set of scenarios chosen...Group workshop There are many global scenarios, many consumer scenarios, many possible future environments. There are many possibilities in each possible scenario - it’s a matter of strategy - positioning, innovation, ... R