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ROLES FOR STATISTICS IN 21 ST CENTURY MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT SYSTEMS 

ROLES FOR STATISTICS IN 21 ST CENTURY MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT SYSTEMS . N. Scott Urquhart Director of STARMAP Department of Statistics Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877 - USA. OVERVIEW OF THIS THEME. PERSPECTIVES PLENARY SESSIONS Today CASE STUDIES

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ROLES FOR STATISTICS IN 21 ST CENTURY MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT SYSTEMS 

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  1. ROLES FOR STATISTICS IN 21ST CENTURY MONITORING ANDASSESSMENT SYSTEMS  N. Scott Urquhart Director of STARMAP Department of Statistics Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523-1877 - USA

  2. OVERVIEW OF THIS THEME • PERSPECTIVES • PLENARY SESSIONS • Today • CASE STUDIES • Tomorrow = Wednesday • LINKING THE TWO PERSPECTIVES • Thursday Morning • TUTORIAL = How To Design and Implement Natural Resource Surveys • Thursday Afternoon

  3. SURVEY PERSPECTIVES • REMOTELY-SENSED RESPONSES HAVE A MAJOR ROLE • Ground-Based Responses Have an Auxiliary Role • Often as “ground truthing” • IN CONTRAST TO • GROUND-EVALUATED RESPONSES HAVE A MAJOR ROLE • Remotely-Sensed Responses Have an Auxiliary Role • Often serving as “covariates”

  4. REMOTELY-SENSED RESPONSES • WHAT ARE THEY? • Usually They are Sensed from Images Obtained from an Aerial Platform • Aerial photography • Imaging from a space vehicle • Spectral reflectance – fairly well established • Radars – emerging • Often complete coverage • Devices attached to a place, animal or robot • Stream flow • Sense things like location and temperature • Deer to bees

  5. REMOTELY-SENSED RESPONSES(Continued) • WHAT ARE THEY? • Usually They are Sensed from Images Obtained from an Aerial Platform • Aerial photography • Imaging from a space vehicle • Classify parts of the image • Automatic – computer based • Manually • Evaluate the size of various classes, like • Land use classes • Vegetation type

  6. GROUND-EVALUATED RESPONSES • CONTRASTING PERSPECTIVE • Data is Obtained by Personnel Visiting the Field Site of Interest • At the field site, personnel may • Collect material – for subsequent lab evaluation • Directly evaluate responses • Or both – common in aquatic studies • Frequent realities • Many responses will be evaluated • Design can not be optimized for all responses

  7. GROUND-EVALUATED RESPONSES(Continued) • Site Selection Process • Area of interest may be partitioned into disjoint areas • A sample of areas will be visited • Points may be selected in some manner • Field crews go to site • Resource of interest may, or may not, be there

  8. OVERVIEW OF THIS THEME • PERSPECTIVES • PLENARY SESSIONS - OVERVIEW • Today • CASE STUDIES = EXAMPLES • Tomorrow = Wednesday • LINKING THE TWO PERSPECTIVES • Small area or local estimation • Thursday Morning • TUTORIAL = How To Design and Implement Natural Resource Surveys • Thursday Afternoon

  9. PLENARY SESSIONS = OVERVIEW • Remotely-Sensed Responses (This session 1:30 – 3:00) • On Remotely-Sensed Responses • Raymond (Ray) Czaplewski • Ground-Evaluated Responses (Next session 3:45 – 5:15) • Statistical Perspective on the Design and Analysis of Natural Resource Monitoring Programs • Anthony (Tony) R. Olsen • Overview of FIA • Ronald (Ron) McRoberts • {Schedule change} • Hans Schreuder to Wednesday @ 1:30 • Steven Fancy to Thursday @ 11:45

  10. CASE STUDIES = EXAMPLES • Programs Utilizing Remotely-Sensed Responses • Session 031101 – Chair = Trent McDonald • National Resources Inventory • Wayne Fuller, & others • National Wetlands Inventory • Tom Dahl • Date/Time: Tomorrow = Wednesday, 9/22/04 • 8:30 – 9:30 • 9:30 – 10:00 – time for discussion

  11. CASE STUDIES = EXAMPLES(Continued) • Programs Utilizing Ground-Evaluated Responses • Session 031101 - Continued • The United States National Agricultural Survey • Carol House • Integrated State-Federal Partnership for Aquatic Resource Monitoring in the United States for Groundwater Using Existing Wells • Anthony (Tony) R. Olsen • Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of the United States Department of Agriculture • Michael (Mike) Williams & others • Date/Time: Tomorrow = Wednesday, 9/22/04 • 10:45 – 12:15

  12. CASE STUDIES = EXAMPLES(Continued) • Realities of Conducting Natural Resource Surveys – Chair = Mike Williams • Session 041102 – Continued • The Past, Present, and Future of Sampling Natural Resources: An Economic and Statistical Perspective • Hans Schreuder • Interagency Cooperation in Natural Resource Surveys • J. Jeffery Goebel • Wildlife Monitoring: Success Requires More than a Good Sampling Design • Kenneth P. Burnham • Date/Time: Tomorrow = Wednesday, 9/22/04 • 1:30 – 3:00

  13. CASE STUDIES = EXAMPLES(Continued) • Not Represented • Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program (ABMP) • http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/ • Cooperative venture: government, academia & industry • Minimally Represented = Surveys of animal populations • Very different study requirements from most of the cases discussed here • Often, finding the animals constitutes a major undertaking • Frequently, some sort of modeling plays a major role • Nevertheless, many of the same ideas have to be addressed

  14. LINKING THE TWO PERSPECTIVES • Small Area Estimation and Model-Based Inference • Session 051105 -- Gretchen Moisen organized this • Small Area Estimation for Natural Resource Surveys • F. Jay Breidt • Evaluating Standards Using Data Collected From Regional Probabilistic Monitoring Programs • Eric P. Smith & others • Non-linear Small Area Estimation in the National Resources Inventory Survey • Tapabrata (Taps) Maiti • Date/Time: Thursday, 9/23/04 • 8:30 – 10:00

  15. LINKING THE TWO PERSPECTIVES(Continued) • Small Area Estimation and Model-Based Inference • Session 051105 • Use of Model-based Stratifications for Sampling Rare Ecological Events: Lichens as a Case Example • Thomas C. Edwards & others • Developing Risk-based Guidelines for Water Quality Monitoring and Evaluation: The Australian Experience • David Fox • Long-term Monitoring of Large, Remote Areas with Minimal Funding: Hope and Encouragement for Natural Area Managers • Steven Fancy • Date/Time: Thursday, 9/23/04 • 10:45 – 12:15

  16. TUTORIAL:HOW TO DESIGN AND IMPLEMENT NATURAL RESOURCE SURVEYS • A Tutorial on Designing Natural Resource Surveys: Concepts to Implementation • Session 061104 • Instructor = Urquhart • Structured around the Anatomy Of Sampling Studies Of Ecological Responses Through Time • Urquhart & Olsen • Date/Time: Thursday, 9/23/04 • 1:30 – 3:00

  17. TUTORIAL:HOW TO DESIGN AND IMPLEMENT NATURAL RESOURCE SURVEYS(Continued) • A Tutorial on Designing Natural Resource Surveys: Concepts to Implementation • Session 061104 • The Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified Sampling Design for Selecting Spatially-Balanced Samples • Don L. Stevens • GRTS for the Average Joe: Implementing GRTS in Windows and S-Plus • Trent L. McDonald • Robust Spatial Sampling of Natural Resources Using a GIS Implementation of the GRTS Algorithm • David M. Theobald • Date/Time: Thursday, 9/23/04 • 3:45 – 5:15

  18. SUMMARY SESSION • Unified Knowledge-Based Strategies and Solutions • Ray Czaplewski • USDA, Forest Service • Richard W. Guldin • Science Policy, … , USDA Forest Service-Research & Development • Keith Pezzoli • University of California @ San Diego • Greg Reams • Forest Health Monitoring, USDA Forest Service • Carl Reed • Specification Program, Open GIS Consortium, Inc • Date/Time: Friday, 9/24/04 • 8:30 – 12:00 • If any of these people are here, please see me.

  19. FIRST PLENARY SPEAKER • Raymond (Ray) Czaplewski • Project Leader, Forest Invent. & Monitoring Envi.. • USDA-Forest Service-Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO • Received his PhD in Range Science from Colo State Univ • Earlier in his career he held positions as a statistician and landscape ecologist. • Professional interests include: • Integration of remotely sensed data from earth-observing satellites into monitoring processes; • Ecological process models; and • Field observation.  • On Remotely-Sensed Responses

  20. SECOND PLENARY SPEAKER • Anthony (Tony) R. Olsen • Statistics Lead, Environmental Monitoring & Assessment Program (EMAP) • EPA’s-Western Ecology Division, Corvallis, OR • Received his PhD in Statistics from Oregon State Univ • His professional interests include: • Statistical aspects of monitoring and assessment, monitoring design; • Survey sampling; • Exploratory data analysis; and • Graphical data analysis and graphical communication. • Statistical Perspective on the Design and Analysis of Natural Resource Monitoring Programs

  21. THIRD PLENARY SPEAKER • Ronald (Ron) McRoberts • Group Leader for Research for the Forest Inventory & Analysis Program • North Central Research Station, USDA-Forest Service • He received a PhD in biostatistics from the Univ. of Minnesota. • His research interests include: • Nonlinear modeling, • Land cover & land change, and • Map-based estimation of forest attributes. • Overview of FIA

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