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The 2008-2009 U. S. Winter Outlook

The 2008-2009 U. S. Winter Outlook. Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center Mike.Halpert@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Outline. Seasonal tools 2008-09 U. S. Winter (DJF) Outlook. Pacific SSTs. December - February OCN. 1998-2007. Temperature.

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The 2008-2009 U. S. Winter Outlook

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  1. The 2008-2009 U. S. Winter Outlook Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center Mike.Halpert@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  2. Outline • Seasonal tools • 2008-09 U. S. Winter (DJF) Outlook

  3. Pacific SSTs

  4. December - February OCN 1998-2007 Temperature

  5. December - February OCN Precipitation 1998-2007

  6. IRI – MME DJF Forecasts

  7. Consolidation Forecast Objective skill-weighted combination of statistical tools, CFS, trend

  8. Winter 2008-09 Outlook Rationale • ENSO-neutral conditions are currently observed in the Pacific. • This is expected to persist through the winter. • NAO (AO) has been and continues to be erratic. Large swings possible in any year • Variability due to intraseasonal oscillations possible (likely) • Trends favor above-normal temperatures over much of nation and drier-than-average conditions in the Southeast.

  9. December 2008 – February 2009 Temperature Outlook

  10. December 2008 – February 2009 Precipitation Outlook

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