Next Generation of Transmission & Resource Planning Models at NYISO

1. Next Generation of Transmission & Resource Planning Models at NYISO Henry Chao Vice President – System and Resource Planning New York Independent System Operator IEEE PES General Meeting 2015 July 29, 2015

2. New York Control Area (NYCA) • A part of NPCC (Northeast Power Coordinating Council) region • Interconnected with PJM, ISO-NE, IESO (Ontario), and Hydro Quebec (HQ) • Eleven internal Load Zones

3. NYCA Power System • NYCA System Peak Load Records • Summer: 33,956 MW (July 19, 2013) • Winter: 25,738 MW (January 7, 2014) • Total Resources Projected for the 2015 Capability Year • Summer: 41,610 MW • Winter: 42,610 MW • Existing Transmission Lines above 100 kV • Over 11,000 circuit miles

4. Regulations for NYISO Planning • Government • FERC orders and regulations • NYS Public Service Commission (PSC) policies and orders • Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations • Reliability Organizations • NERC TPL reliability standards • NPCC Directory 1 reliability criteria • NYS Reliability Council (NYSRC) Reliability Rules • NYISO Tariffs

5. NYISO Planning Process

6. NYISO Planning Process (cont’d) • Special Studies for the Capacity Market • Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) Study • Current statewide IRM requirement: 17.0% • Locational Capacity Requirements (LCR) Study • Current LCR requirements: 83.5% for New York City, 103.5% for Long Island, and 90.5% for Locality G-J • External Capacity Rights (ECR) Study • Determine Import Rights from neighboring Control Areas

7. NYISO Planning Models • Deterministic vs. Probabilistic • Deterministic models still widely used • Analysis of power flow, contingencies, short circuit, stability, dynamics, etc. • Typical criterion: “N-1”, “N-1-1” • Conservative but do not consider probabilities • Probabilistic models also adopted • Analysis of generation and/or transmission adequacy • Typical criterion: “loss of load expectation (LOLE)” • Address compromise of severity & probability

8. NYISO Probabilistic Models • NYCA Power System Design Criterion • NYCA LOLE shall be, on average, no more than 0.1 day/year • Software Tool • General Electric Multi-Area Reliability Simulation (GE-MARS) Program • Simulation Approach • Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation • Evaluate each hour through the year chronologically

9. NYISO MARS Model

10. Load Model • Baseline Peak Load Forecast • Value at the center (50/50) of Normalized probability density function • Load Forecast Uncertainty (LFU) • Model probability distribution of load forecast • Seven load bins covering the distribution range of ±3.5σ (standard deviation) • Load Shapes • Three load shapes with associated probabilities

11. Capacity Model • Conventional Generator Units • Multi-capacity-state model with transition rates • Forced outage & derating status determined by random numbers during simulation • Transition rates derived from 5-year historical data in the NERC Generating Availability Data System (GADS) • Renewable Energy Resources • Hourly load modifier • The output varies between 0 and the nameplate value based on historical production data

12. Transmission Model

13. Emergency Operating Procedures Model • Demand Resources • Special Case Resources (SCR) • Emergency Demand Response Programs (EDRP) • Emergency Operating Procedures (EOP) • Load control • Voltage reductions, voluntary industrial curtailment, general public appeals • Generation supplements • Emergency purchases, reducing operating reserves

14. Need for High Performance Computing • Heavy Computation Burden • Increased dimensionality of interconnected systems in planning study models • Nature of Monte Carlo Simulation • Large number of samplings to achieve convergence • Availability of High Performance Computing (HPC) Resources • Multi-core computer system (hardware) • Parallel computing algorithm (software)

15. NYISO HPC Environment

16. Benefit from HPC Application Desktop/Laptop Performance Level: 4 hours

17. Benefit from HPC Application

18. Questions?